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Prime or Tesla 3

Discussion in 'Tesla' started by jack520, Apr 15, 2016.

  1. stephane

    stephane Prius v owner

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    Thanks for the clarification happy to see at least they are better than reguar car for environment even in US coal now we just need higher gas price
     
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  2. Ursamajor

    Ursamajor Member

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    The "coal-powered Tesla" trope will be pitched by BEV haters years after it's obsolete (it already is). Between scheduled retirement and litigation, over 30% of US coal generation capacity has been retired since 2010, and that will accelerate as plants built in the baby boom reach their end of life.

    Similarly, a friend (who's a diesel enthusiast) told me at Easter that there's a giant landfill in Kansas stuffed with all the non-recyclable Prius batteries that need to be replaced at 80,000 miles, 100,000 if you're really lucky.

    Both memes are designed to justify sub-optimal vehicle choices without guilt, i.e. "Why bother"? This foolishness takes on a life of its own.
     
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  3. jack520

    jack520 Member

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    I see the issue a bit different...

    I bought my Plugin because of the green sticker that allows me to drive in the HOV lanes by myself. I save about a total week of commute time every year thanks to this perk from the government. To be honest and not con ourselves, it is not a very good electric car compared to what is out there.

    I doubt the Prime will provide enough of an improvement in electric mode to be allowed into the select group of vehicles that you can drive in the HOV lanes by yourself.

    Someone brought up the fact that some of the electricity in this country is generated by Coal....the amount of coal power in this country is dropping fast...in California, I believe there is no more Coal generated electricity being generated.

    One can argue forever about global warming being caused by CO2...(I am highly educated in Science and very smart, and I have not seen the proof....not saying it is or is not caused by man) but no one can argue that air pollution is not a serious problem. We need to do something about it(just try breathing the air anywhere but on the coast of california). We need cars like the Prime or all Electric to clean our pollution problems.

    Now getting back to the generation question...most electric cars get charged in the middle of the night. Most power companies have a problem with load balance in the evening time. They simply can not ramp up and down plants that fast. Electric cars help the power companies to generate electricity more efficiently and with less pollution.

    Electric cars are the future (until Hydrogen / fuel cells are better engineered) . Lower cost per mile, cleaner air, less reliance on countries that hate us.

    Getting back to my question then....what is the target market for the Prime..

    Who is going to buy it ?

    If you want access to HOV lanes - NOPE
    If you want to drive in Electric Mode farther than 22 miles to save money on electricity or clean the environment - NOPE

    At the end of the day, I doubt many people will buy this vehicle.... and buy the VOLT, BOLT, LEAF, I3, Tesla Model 3....which will have longer electric miles, and access to HOV lanes...
     
  4. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    air is pretty nice around these parts.
    we don't know about hov yet, it is not a given.
    if you want to drive 22 miles or less, yes. then you get 50 mpg or better.
    if you think 97% of the drivers are going to switch to bev's, and it's pointless to require higher mpg's, i disagree.
    but i do agree, hov in cali is probably 75% of plug in reasoning, which is very sad for our country, and world.
     
    #24 bisco, Apr 24, 2016
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2016
  5. jack520

    jack520 Member

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    It helps drive the volume up, which drives the learning curve of technology.

    I do not see it as an evil thing....
     
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  6. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    understood. i would just like to see more divers broaden their horizons. but as long as they don't believe mmcc is real or that oil from the middle east is a geo political nightmare, we'll be stuck in the same place we've been for the last 40 years.
     
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  7. Ursamajor

    Ursamajor Member

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    Mary Nichols, the Head of CARB, is a Mirai owner and deeply in bed with Toyota. If green stickers are re-instated this summer, I'm confident the Prime will qualify.
     
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  8. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    if stickers are not reinstituted, you can pretty much write off alternative energy vehicles for the near future.
     
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  9. jack520

    jack520 Member

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    I agree with you....however..

    The HOV lanes are plugged in the heavily populated areas already and I doubt there will be more green stickers.

    The Mirai is a great car in concept...it will take time to ramp....also storing Hydrogen at 10,000 PSI is going to freak a lot of people out...

    They are still issuing white stickers for very environmentally friendly cars...It is the easier to qualify green stickers that are plugging up the HOV lanes and have currently run out of stickers (both are schedule to expire at the end of 2018)
     
    #29 jack520, Apr 24, 2016
    Last edited by a moderator: Apr 25, 2016
  10. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    well overall in USA about 47% of Plug_ins have been sold in CA so far. So 75% is too high to say CA HOV, except for PiP1 70-75% in CA might be true. If you look at Plug_Ins sold in CA, the number of HOV stickers is relatively close to 80+% that number (ie; most are getting the HOV stickers).

    I think white HOV stickers outnumber green HOV stickers by a fair margin now that green stickers have been slowed by the quotas. So why would it be the green stickers clogging up the HOV lanes? Do you find the white stickers do not actually use the lanes as much?
     
    #30 wjtracy, Apr 24, 2016
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2016
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  11. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    thank you for correcting my wag.:p
     
  12. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    Yes but only PHEV (Prime, Volt, etc) sales (green HOV stickers) are at immediate risk...CA still plans to continue BEV free HOV white sticker access for some years.

    My guess is CA green HOV will be extended, otherwise we would not have Prime marketed at all, and I think it also accounts for good 1Q2016 PHEV sales. The fix is probably already baked in.
     
  13. jack520

    jack520 Member

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    I rarely see a white sticker in the HOV, they are mainly PIP or Volt...
     
  14. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    really? why do you think?
     
  15. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    ...betcha any money lots more white stickers 10000 more or so than green.
    But I am all ears if you think the green stickers are on the HOV roads more...that I do not know.

    Green stickers were 80000 I think. So 160000 would be green+white. Guess what we don't know how many still on the road ...some of the leases were 2yrs.

    EDIT: So as of December 2015, there were 85,000 green HOV (PHEV) stickers issued and about 92,500 white HOV (BEV) stickers. Since December only white HOV (BEV) stickers were issued, so must be a lot more white stickers as of today.

    California's 85,000 green carpool stickers are all gone - San Jose Mercury News
     
    #35 wjtracy, Apr 24, 2016
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2016
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  16. jack520

    jack520 Member

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    Here is a snippet from a question about this in the mercury news (San Jose paper)

    A Maybe. The current program has reached its 85,000 limit, but legislation is once again working its way through Sacramento to increase that number and extend the expiration date beyond Jan. 1, 2019.

    Assembly Bill 1964 by Richard Bloom, D-Santa Monica, would remove the 2019 sunset date and eliminate the 85,000 cap on green stickers. Green stickers issued prior to Jan. 1, 2018, would expire on Jan. 1, 2019. Stickers issued between Jan. 1, 2018, and Dec. 31, 2018, would be valid until Jan. 1, 2022.

    White carpool stickers for electric vehicles and those running on compressed natural gas would remain uncapped.

    Gov. Jerry Brown proposes removing the cap on the number of green stickers but retaining the 2019 expiration date and extending the white sticker program until 2025. The increased availability of EVs with a longer driving range has prompted demand for white stickers to more than double, from roughly 41,000 at the end of 2013 to 99,697 on April 1.

    If they do this, Prime sales would go through the rough.....if it was on the list...
     
  17. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    Roof!
    2019 is not much time though that argues for leasing Prime and getting a BEV next in CA. I was thinking they'd do better than 2019 for PHEV.
     
  18. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    For those of us who don't have HOV incentives for green vehicles - IRRELEVANT

    The strong interest in Prius here (Minnesota) without any type of state help shows there are other purchase draws.


    No one drives an electric powered vehicle to save money. The smooth, quiet, powerful propulsion system comes at a premium currently.

    As for clean the environment, that's a highly subjective topic. If you only drive a few miles per day, what's the point of purchasing a vehicle with a massive battery-pack?

    You will still get outstanding MPG, even when driving further. Those miles will be cleaner too. That's what Prius has always delivered. Having a plug simply improves the results.


    History of gen-1 offerings don't back that claim. Ordinary consumers are fickle, don't deal with absolutes, and are unwilling to take a large next step. Toyota understandings that and is striving to strike that delicate balance.
     
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  19. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    It'll cost more - but aren't they supposed to re-badge the genII Volt chassis as a caddy as well? That'd certainly have a bunch more options if that's what folks want.
    .
     
    #39 hill, Apr 25, 2016
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2016
  20. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    Cadillac CT6 will add a PSD and 2 clutches... so higher cost and complexity... to deliver 449 horsepower.

    Seems like quite a big step in the wrong direction, away from the reach of most consumers.