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Cosmic rays, solar activity, and changes in the Earth’s climate

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by bwilson4web, Apr 7, 2017.

  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    I am OK with a statistical analysis that suggests something is going on. If that analysis reveals a credible model, I am inclined to follow BUT it has to be based on some understandings of physics, chemistry, and math. That is not this case.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #1 bwilson4web, Apr 7, 2017
  2. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    there are places on Earth surface where some temperature metrics covary with sunspot cycle. Tropical margins are known to me and there may be others. A possible proximate mechanism exists, higher-latitude cold air getting down there. An ultimate mechanism mechanism remains to be identified. Whole shebang needs to be tested. Global surface 'synoptic charts' have been made throughout satellite era. They may tell the tale. If they only persist on paper in some filing cabinet(s), those are pretty important cabinets:eek:

    Understand that this represents redistribution of heat across the planet, not a global response to sunspots.

    Several consecutive weak future solar cycles would reduce incoming energy by ~1 watt/m2. Not competitive with IR-absorption forcing increases in the view of many.

    To repeat myself, a decade of lower surface air T would attract a lot of attention. That happened most recently ca. 1970. Deeper ca. 1910. To repeat myself.
     
    #2 tochatihu, Apr 7, 2017
  3. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    I asked Mr. Google:
    Understand I'm not in agreement with the claims as much as interested in the claims. It won't the first time I'm read something that I didn't find convincing. The real question is the order of magnitude of CO{2} warming vs solar radiance changes:
    1. solar radiance << CO{2} re-emissions
    2. solar radiance >> CO{2} re-emissions
    Bob Wilson
     
    #3 bwilson4web, Apr 7, 2017
  4. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    #4 tochatihu, Apr 7, 2017
  5. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    From this wiki

    Solar cycle - Wikipedia

    ref. 72 is a free download and others in that vicinity would require a small effort. Ineson (ref.70) proposes a mechanism related to solar UV flux, which varies strongly through solar cycle.
     
    #5 tochatihu, Apr 7, 2017
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