A majority of auto executives still think battery electric cars will fail, survey says

Since I appreciate attempts at analysis using basic physics, I'll point out the main flaw here. Range really only comes into the discussion when long distance, i.e. highway driving is being considered, and that driving does not have acceleration related losses. So let's calculate rolling losses for a 1 Kg battery pack increase that before weight related friction losses is good for about 1.6 Km.

The 1 Kg rolling force in Newtons is m*g*f, equal to about 9 N based on a tyre RR of 0.009
Over 1.6 Km, 14400 Joules are wasted,
Equal to 4 Wh per mile

That is ~ a 1.5% weight penalty, not 2/3rds.
A bump up of the LR Model 3 into the ~ 425 mile range Lee wants will not take 100 Kg extra battery weight, but 101.5 Kg due to extra rolling resistance.

Eeyore is distraught.

I should, however, take my own advice and compare my calc to actual results in the field:
Model 3 SR is 220 miles range and weighs 3,549 lbs
Model 3 LR is 324 miles range (EPA, not sticker) and weighs 3,839 lbs
114 miles of extra range requires 290 extra lbs
1.156 Kg per extra mile range

 

Charging times should be weighted: Supercharger Vs home/destination

I estimate Supercharger times at 4.5 miles per minute for the SR Model 3, and perhaps 10% of my miles at a Supercharger (ymmv.)
So for me, about 44 miles per minute charging times overall, about ballpark with gasoline.

 

On this I also neither entirely agree nor disagree. They address that by saying that, for the most customers and the majority of their use cases, a range of 200-300 miles will cover a day’s usage, after which an ordinary level-2-speed charge overnight is fine.

On the other hand, yes there are comparative outlier cases — long road trips being the obvious one — where fast charging is indeed critical, and yes, I concur that they didn’t discuss that. Then again, that too is being addressed.


iPhone ? Pro

 

I hear you, but this is perhaps more a case of bad timing. Imagine if you had to choose a car about a year from now. The Prime advanced in CA is ~ $32k before tax credits or about $25.5k after credits. The SR Model 3 might be $36 - $7.5 - $2k = $26.5k if income is high enough to maximize the credit.

Admittedly there are other costs that bump up the Tesla: more sales tax; perhaps more insurance costs; and Tesla has yet to prove they can match Toyota hybrid/Prime long term reliability, longevity, and repair costs. That said, I'll bet you are surprised that the acquisition costs are so close.

 

If you went with "suitcase" or "trunk" charging, then you would not have to worry about charge times.

Imagine a batty pack about the size of a suitcase that could record the amount of charge it delivers.

You wanna go on a long trip, charge you car normally overnight, and when you start your trip go to
a local service station that has suitcase batteries for rent. You might wanna rent 2 or three, they are small so that a person can lift them.
You plug them in in you trunk, or frunmp if you have one. The car draws on these suite case's until you find another station in you trip.
You return the battery, and are charged for the amount consumed. You pick up another set to continue the trip.

The stations can charge the suite case batteries on off-peak hours at a reasonable rate of charge.
No need to do these massive energy transfers that involve really high voltages, large currents and heat management issues.
I believe that fast charging also negatively affects battery life as well.

Being in the shape and size of a suite case means that car - battery companies can have variation in shape and sizes.
The only thing you really need to standardize on is the connector, and I think that we have enough of these already.

 

That's assuming that 1) Tesla has not gone bankrupt before it gets out of production hell, 2) They've worked through their backlog of pre-orders, 3) They're actually producing the low cost entry level model in significant numbers, and 4) The pre-orders haven't used up the finite number of available tax credits, and finally 5) Your income is enough that you pay 7.5k or more in taxes.

Perhaps the problem is that the supercharger network is specific to Teslas? It would be nice if you could pay $$$ to charge a Leaf or Bolt. Tesla needs the cash, perhaps they'll find a way to make that happen.

 

I phrased my earlier answer incorrectly. It should have been that when he bought the Prime Advanced, he instead chose to reserve a Tesla. My SR Model 3 is estimated to be available for purchase 'early 2018.' Way before the maximum tax credit expires.

As for BK FUD -- hah!
As of end of 2017 Tesla revenue from car sales is ~ $12 Million a day.
The only realistic stumbling block in front of Tesla is if a massive, car killing recall should occur.

 

Or if you need to carry actual luggage, perhaps an even bigger battery on a trailer plugged in via a standard connector? That should give enough range for a full day's worth of driving.

 

Ah, but are you able to get the $36K Model 3 yet? I thought they were only building the $42K version at the moment.

 

True for the moment, which is why I extrapolated out delivery and tax credit.

 

I like the premise of the modular battery pack. I believe there are one or two companies thinking about this route. Would be surprised if we don't see something like that eventually come to market, as long as there are at least several companies on board.

Also thinking long term (several decades from now) we see more wireless on road charging, especially on the interstates.

 

I doubt it. The utilization rate will be so low that the per use charges will not be competitive.

Supercharging today is already fine for a large swath of the population; 180 kW average throughput is just around the corner in the form of 90 kWh packs wired for 800 volts. That works out to 14 miles a minute trip charging, AFTER the origin charge is used.

 

Since we are speculating on adaption rates, success or failure of this manufacturer or that, why not try and imagine a more optimistic scenario. One in which there is a game-changing energy storage technology that evolves very rapidly that addresses the storage charge time. I think there is very healthy and active research in that area.

Just think, before WWI a flying machine was a huge deal. But not too long after WWII we had jet propulsion and soon after that super-sonic flight. all in about half a century. I think this whole electrification issue is on a cusp of turning a corner.

Stone age did not end because humans ran out of stones, but because a much better tech was developed. Electric motors are vastly superior to ICE and at some point not using an electric motor in a car will represent a financial disadvantage.

 

My question is whether it will be/remain cost efficient to use. I know Musk has made statements that indicate he expects it to but we'll see.
With a couple hundred miles of range, much of my charging with an EV only vehicle could be at home so I could potentially tolerate a bit of a premium when charging remotely but laws must still change to make cost only a function of KWh consumed and costs/KWh need to be competitive.

 

i love this guy! is this @hill in (poor) disguise?

 

My understanding is that the Supercharger network is open to other manufacturers as long as they are willing to pay in, but no has approached Tesla yet.

Modular batteries are a nice idea, but I suspect most people will tire of them once they've had to pull a set out of the trunk. I also see liability and safety issues.

And for those in which that doesn't work, there will still be PHEV options, and maybe other EREV options.