Featured Teardown of Chevy Bolt

It appears the Bolt is becoming very supply constrained.

Rumor is that the General is going to carry 3 digit nationwide inventories unless the fed tax credit continues,

Not rumor is that 2018 Bolt production starts today.

 

Ramping the bolt right now is a risky thing. For sure lots will be sold in december if they are available. December is seasonally the best month for plug-in sales. January and February are awful months. With GM's pipeline, I don't think cars produced today will make it to customers in December. I would do a slow ramp for march sales, but ...

Things may change but electric vehicle tax credits are not currently changed in the compromise tax bill. Wind and solar subsidies phase out, ending in 2020 and 2022 respectively. The tax bill did not cut carried interest or coal or oil subsidies.
Tax Compromise Keeps Wind and Electric-Car Credits, Source Says - Bloomberg

 

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/mobility/2018/03/07/gm-bolt-production-orion/32699953/

Bolt production is going back up

 

More and more, the impression is that Volt will fade away. There simply isn't a market within GM's customer base for an expensive compact hatchback. The realities of production cost could not be avoided. Later on, it's easy to see a small SUV with a plug emerge.

So much for their supposed industry lead.

 

And yet they and Tesla are to only ones selling a long range BEV.

 

Measurement of leadership based on heavy dependency of subsidies is misinformed.

Legacy automakers must find a way to be profitable on their own, like Nissan & Toyota.

The shortsightedness of just 200,000 sales is really sad.

 

Toyota received subsidies in order to get the Prius to market. We called them a leader then.

 

Not true.

Those 60,000 tax-credits here came about *AFTER* mainstream sales had already been achieved.

The purpose was to get deeper penetration into the consumer market. That most definitely is not how the 200,000 are being used now.

 

North America was not the Prius' first market. The Japanese government was giving a direct subsidy to manufacturers of hybrids and EVs for every one sold equal to half the difference between the car's price and that of the equivalent ICE model. Not only did hybrid subsidies start with the cars' introduction there, but also extended beyond the time they ended in the US.

 

You missed both points of what I posted...

 

Let's see.

So we can't call some company a leader while they are making use of subsidies.

Yet we called Toyota a hybrid leader from the near beginning, while they were receiving subsidies for the Prius from the beginning to at least the gen3 in Japan, which was, and is, their major hybrid market. It also wasn't profitable into its second generation.

The initial subsidies in Japan weren't "to get deeper penetration into the consumer market," but to help nurture a fledgling product segment. Which is what the federal tax credits in the US was meant for, and how GM and Tesla used them.

Outside speculation, using suspect accounting that is now being applied to Tesla, aside, what evidence is there that the gen2 Volt isn't profitable? It has been reported a couple years ago that the federal tax credit already exceeds the battery cost for plug ins.

Of course being profitable alone won't keep a car model from fading away. All small, efficient cars are suffering to some degree to fuel prices and the public preference for crossovers and SUVs. The Prius has not been immune to this. Knowledge gained from the Volt will be applied to any other plug in project GM has in the future. It is already applied to the CT-6. It has also helped spur others into the plug in field.

 

One would guess that the bolt success would be a big part of diminished (cannibalized) volt sales . It would be logical to assume that plug-in Prius sales will similarly be canabalized, once they finally come out with their long-range EV.
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The Prime is already canabalizing Prius sales.

Long EV range/large battery PHEVs like the Volt are going to face resistance because of the costs for the battery and ICE. Small battery PHEVs are going to cost less for much of the same advantages, and BEVs now have 100 to 200 miles of range for the Price of a Volt without the ICE maintenance concerns.

A Volt crossover might do better, or it might prove ahead of its time, and not get off the ground until more 50ish mile PHEVs come to market. Eitherway, large battery PHEVs will continue on in the luxury and performance segments for the advantages they bring there.

That said, without the Volt and Leaf coming to market, with help of the tax credit, when they did to spur the battery industry into car traction battery investment, we wouldn't have a cheap Prius Prime now.

 

Cannibalization implies an unintended consequence. That most definitely isn't the situation.

Toyota wants to transition from hybrid to plug-in hybrid.

 

Where have they stated that?