Can Model 3 compete mainstream?

same response posted just 2 spots above. Hand-wringing aside - all the auto builders survived their own self made catastrophes, regardless of what we think. And - ~400k deposit/hand raisers contradict the "gloom&doom'ers". That's a sizable amount - in an order of magnitude of Camrys that get sold per year. Certainly dwarfing the number of other plugin's being sold. Not that anyone should feel the need to mollify the pessimistic crowd.
Each Tesla Model released, from the Roadster, to the sedan, to the SUV they have all had warts & delays yet they Keep On Keep'n On.
.

 

seems when it comes to tesla, you're either glass half full, or half empty. it's hard to determine who in the media has what agenda behind there articles.

 

Put another way, Babe Ruth often remembered as the home run king for many years, was also known as the King of Strikeouts back in his day. He was known for his all or nothing batting style. He led the American League in strikeouts five times, and accumulated 1,330 of them in his career. Yet his hits kept him in the game.
What does that say, that success Trump's failures? Iduno
Maybe that even a huge Beer Drinker can go places in this life. Works for me.

.

 

you rarely hear about the failure's though. it's like everyone wins in vegas, or so they say. agree with beer.

 

I know lots of people who say they "never lost a dime in Vegas." But I also know a few guys who lost something else there, usually involved lots of beer.

 

Hmm, perhaps it is because I follow Tesla so closely. I always here about failures. People have been throwing names at Tesla comparing it to another “Tucker” or even calling Musk another Ponsi scheme. Many other comparisons as well.

 

yes, but aren't most of them shorters?

i'm just talking about business in general. you hear about the success, but lots of people start small businesses and fail.

 

Just read Tesla published Model 3 production #'s for their last quarter were nearly 10,000. Picking up, slowly but surely.
.

 

up 40 points and still no profit.

 

Yeah, Elon says positive cash flow by end of Q3/18. We'll see. I am confident Tesla will be pumping out >12K model 3's by end of April and close to 20K by end of June. Model 3 will then dominate the entry level luxury car market at that time.
Every other maker's numbers are down except Audi and Tesla is about to eclipse them.

 

what price range is that?

 

The number is somewhat subjective, but I would peg it at the 35K - 50K starting price range. YMMV.

 

any idea of the number of cars sold each year in that range? would be pretty significant i would think.

 

According to Luxury car sales, status counts and the rich get richer | Fortune
Vehicles north of $40k account for 11% of the market. That is roughly 1.7 Million each year.
I would guess, that there are more sales from $35k-$40k than there are above $50k. So I am fairly comfortable with 1.7-2 Million sales each year, in the US.

 

Yet $40 K for an Land Barge? Doesn't get counted among evil wealthy folk

.

 

Tesla getting close to 10% market share of the luxury car segment in the near future will be pretty incredible for a decade old company.

 

20k/mo. = 240k/yr = 15%, would that be considered dominant for 2019?

 

THIS. As model 3 ramps up in the next few months, it will easily dominate that market segment by the end of April or May with sales of at least 6K per month and by the end of 2018, 20K per month! Interesting that Motor Trend made the Guilia "Car of the Year" yet where is it in sales? FAIL! The future does not look rosy for ICE!

 

still, in the back of my mind, i have to wonder where demand will settle in after the pre orders are gone.

 

Once enough model 3 get in the hands of the early adopters, and the general public gets to see, sit in, and drive it, market demand will increase above levels we now see. Even in California they are still a somewhat rare sight right now unless you purposely go to a Supercharger station. The $35K version will be available sometime in the next 12 months and then you will see the floodgates open. I see potential sales ~500K per year. The problem is, will Tesla be able to meet that demand?