Impending Record U.S. Crude Oil Production

If we don’t restore, we shouldn’t be allowed to destroy. The investors don’t care about your, water, air, opinions or rights. THEY WILL BE GONE

If you don’t like it FRACK IT.

 

all we can do is keep fighting the good fight. in the end, it will be what it will be.
hit the streets and get the word out. shout it from the rooftops. 'i'm mad as hell, and i'm not going to take it anymore!'

 

If we don’t restore, we shouldn’t be allowed to destroy.

Here, sir, lay externalities. In 22nd century such will be unavoidable and obviously linked to our species' survival. Optimists like me hope it will click in during second half of 21st century. We are looking for a softer landing.

 

When I was about 23, I almost got involved in racial protest ( 1958 ) in the deep south, fortunately I made a smart move and joined the USAF. The attitude of many Southerners at that time was we know what we are doing, this is our land, you have no right coming in here and telling us what to do. ( they had a point) In NYC, I as a kid I knew better than to walk into a strange neighborhood, they, the kids in that block thought they owned it. Well, we don’t have to resort to any type of violence. It doesn’t help, that picture of two negroes and one caucasian hanging from a tree, left a deep impression on me. ( Everet Miss, I think ) tho it was years later. I thought, that could have been me. So, it’s good to protest good causes, but know when to fade out. I remember once speaking to a Lady in her 60s in Richmond, Va. about the South’s treatment of Negroes, and she got very angry. Think of all the damage a 15 yr. old boy from NYC could do to her dignity. I was definitely a threat.

It is and will be Cherish what has been given to us, or die. time wise I hope your right.

 

Andy I had no idea you were so old

Death awaits all whether they cherish or not. But it is human survival you speak about here. If I've any power to persuade, don't worry on that. May not manage with 8 billions or at 10 billions anticipated peak, but this here is a tenacious and clever species. It would take more than moderate +CO2, +T, +sea level and +disease to end our (actually quite short) run.

Maintaining our large population bulge would require much new thought and action very incompletely framed in climate debates. I am not optimistic there, but a soft landing in second half of this century remains possible. I'll not see it, but that's not important.

Longer: 0.1 billions were sustained by low-technology hunter gatherers for a really long time. That is a very low goal and I think much higher is reasonable. Whether that means 1 or 3 or more billions humans is beyond me to guess.

All we might do now, environmental cherish wise relates to a soft landing that will come. After we go.

 

The scenario that really disturbs me Worldwide is George Orwell’s 1984, caused by overpopulation and a necessity to control mankind in all aspects. Probably not in our lifetime but perhaps in a 100 yrs. We are aleady entering controlled Medical living. I have observed Drs. quoting me verbatim, yet, taking no notes.
So somehow they are recording this so called private conversation, on thier computer ?

 

Nothing I type to computer is private. If I tried to make it so via VPN or encryption, that would only make me more 'interesting'. I make no efforts to politically disrupt any country.

My work in China is (narrowly) to improve scientific research and manuscripts for English-language journals. Broadly, to advance my fields of interest, and sometimes, to help plain ol' people to understand what science is, does and says.

Some of that could be seen as opposing Orwell's fever dream. No one ever in this country or elsewhere has suggested I should defer. If any ever do, well, that would call to Orwell. But such would not become posts to PriusChat eh?

Not comfortable thinking about being a canary in a coal mine.

 

More oil production doesn't help when our refinery capacity is already near 100%. It is easier to ship from the in land fields to the refineries than to export, and those refineries already only take fracked oil at a discount.

Is the production per well staying up, or are they still drilling more and more holes?

 

My bet is on the wells going dry. There was data from the EIA showing that while production for the field was growing, the production per well was dropping. The operators could be getting cautious for that reason also; the need for more and more wells increases their costs. American business doesn't tend towards conserving resources though.

 

Well I believe there may be a shortage of pipelines to carry the new crude oil production from the source to the refineries, but at the moment I cannot find a refernce to that. I think it is decade or two premature to proclaim the end of the fracking era due to depleted resoucres in the USA. Meanwhile oppostunties in other countries are not yet exploited. Permian basin is just getting started.

 

I've seen an article or two mentioning the pipeline shortage. Another infrastructure issue is with the most convenient refineries to ship to. These are the ones on the Mexico Gulf coast, and they are designed for handling heavy, sour crude. The fracked oil is light and sweet, which is great for gasoline production, but it is less efficient refining a crude type in a refinery not designed for it. So the heavy, sour refineries only buy the light sweet crude when it is discounted, and then they may still need to mix it with heavy crude before processing.

Somebody is building a light, sweet refinery for that fracked oil.

 

Yep, Permian wells are tapering off faster than predicted.
Older oil wells in Permian Basin may be drying up faster than expected | Energy | Dallas News

 

I think it was Cramer on Mad Money recently saying there are so-called "DUCs" in the Permian.
DUCs are Drilled/Uncompleted wells, being held for future production (eg; when crude oil price rises).

 

Or when old well production slacks off.

 

Production is up because of new wells constantly being brought on line.
https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/dpr-full.pdf
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

New wells tend to be strong producers, but the EIA defines a new a well as, "one that began producing for the first time in the previous month. Each well belongs to the new well category for only one month." After that, they are counted amount the legacy production, and that has been steadily dropping in most regions, despite all these new wells being brought on line each month.