Featured Mazda plans new dedicated electric car

I believe the other thread was the confusing one, about Mazda saying no to EVs...

 

I think the 'range extended version' with the small rotary engine is even more intriguing.

 

range extender shouts 'short range'

 

The i3 REx with 94ah battery has a 97 mile EV range; 72 with the smaller battery. It is 33kWh to 21.6kWh for comparison to others. The BEV model gets 114 to 81 miles.

Those are considered short range, yes, but still plenty for many to have 100% EV trips on their daily route. Even 70 miles can do that for many, and if Mazda doesn't bow to CARB, or sells a federal version, this PHEV can have a large enough gas tank to be practical for long trips.

 

or just have a 200 mile battery?

prime makes more sense to me, but for the small percentage of drivers doing close to a hundred miles a day, i'm not sure it's worth developing vehicles like this.

 

another concern is mazda's fascination with the wankel which has never proven useful, although they are committed to doing something with it.

 

'short range' shouts 'mainstream sticker price'

 

that would be good, we'll see. battery and engine are hard to control costs

another important factor is size. if it is a thimble designed for asia, it won't do well here

 

Seems like car companies that have resisted hybrid production tend to go straight to pure-electric? Or make noises in that direction...

 

How do manufacturers compete against small ICE commuter cars in price for produced-in-volume vehicles? New Corolla base cost $18.7k.

Take a sample lifestyle of 15 miles to work, to a local shop and back home. Take away the rebate. Keep gas below $4/gal. And assume no commuting benefits like access to special lanes.

How do the economics work out until the alternative fuel vehicle can almost match the initial price of the ICE car? With low miles per year, how does the average Joe/Jane justify the extra cost? Or trouble to fuel if they don't have access to home-based fueling? Even the cost of a circuit and charger? (and I'm assuming somewhat of a best case that they have access to a long range vehicle for the longer trips.)

Most people don't live in areas where government mandates help justify nor in places that have or allow chargers.

How in those circumstances will you sell enough cars to justify the initial design and tooling costs?

I'm saying this because I want one. But those low hundreds range vehicles just don't do it for me. I've made 3 trips in the last 10 days where I'd be gritting my teeth praying the cold air didn't prevent me getting home.

 

Sounded like it was between the CX-3 and CX-5 in size from the article; along the lines of the CH-R or Kona.

Again, global company. Europe and Japan(likely much of Asia) drive fewer miles than Americans(both might be under 10k a year). The Kona BEV will be over 200 miles, so I expect the same of this, with the PHEV being a little shorter. I also expect it will be a series hybrid, like the i3, which would be cheap to develop.

Rotary engines are tiny powerhouses. The A1 E-tron used a 250cc one. A typical walk behind lawn mower has a displacement of half that, but the rotary was about the same size as its engine.

So a rotary should be easier to package in a PHEV; the entire genset of that A1sat between the rear wheels. Running it at one or a few set speeds will make addressing the issues of emissions and efficiency, but if the EV range is over 100 miles, it doesn't need to have Prius level fuel economy.

Much cheaper designing a BEV than a viable hybrid system.

The total ownership cost of a BEV in Europe is near parity with that of an ICE vehicle. The EV has a higher up front cost, but you save on fuel and maintenance costs.

Part of the reason why BEVs aren't cheaper is because they aren't made in the large volumes like the Corolla. Mass production of batteries is coming inline, but there is still the manufacturing base for the motors and associated components to build up.

 

This is why the Tesla model of making expensive desirable cars AND getting the government incentives to lure "rich" people into buying them makes so much sense. It gets the supply chain volume of components up so that, later, it makes lower end vehicles practical and will provide a used market of older EVs that used to have a longer range...but don't anymore.

This might take until the initial batch of Model 3s is 7 or 8 years old.

Trying to "jump start" the EV market with low end compliance cars is a fools errand.

Mike

 

But we were discussing mass market cars back there and, if a Model 3 still costs in the $38k range to make, how does it compete with a $18k car and achieve that volume that only lower costs allows so it can be a mass market car? Some can buy one, and it's uniqueness and greenness appeals. But those are surely not the typical buyer and you have to get them to get the volume, don't you?

 

The Model 3 doesn't cost $38k to make. Tesla has a large profit margin on them; they had something like 25% on the Model S. I wouldn't be surprised if it is 4 times the margin Toyota has a base Corolla.

The reason a start up like Tesla couldn't make it starting with entry level is that you need to sell those models in large numbers in order to make a profit and be able to expand. That simply isn't possible at the start. Nissan could because they already had the resources for such mass production, and could do so for longer at a loss until the market grew.

 

ev prices will continue to come down as production grows. 18k is a long ways away, but eventually, after many years, ev's will be mass market. patience

 

Even if a Model 3 cost $38k plus a few percent profit...it is not in the same class as an $18k car in terms of features, comfort and performance. About the only thing that the $18K car wins at is long haul refueling speed.
The low end Model 3 will be competing with the median priced cars in the same model year...which is estimated to be $34k in 2019.

edit: I just found this...more like $36K...so next year's Tesla will be below the median!
Average New-Car Prices Rise Nearly 4 Percent For January 2018 On Shifting Sales Mix, According To Kelley Blue Book - Feb 1, 2018


Mike

 

The BMW 3 series is a better comparison for the Model 3.

 

a 36k tesla would have me looking