Featured Toyota Won’t Make A Proper EV Because Dealers Say It Won’t Sell

it's not a pissing contest - or mine's bigger than yours contest - for crying out loud - nor are any posts written to generate strife, jealousy, Pride, or envy or ill will, hopefully. Maybe reread the OP?
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Source: Tesla Launches Model 3 In Japan: First Deliveries In Late 2019

Japan probably will not be a major market for the Model 3. However, the Model 3 could be the first all-electric model that could possibly compete – in volume of sales – with the Nissan LEAF in its home market.​

Bob Wilson

 

uh-oh .... sayonara ToyotaMirai-San - it's already way past your time to fall on your sword.
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Interesting. I moved out to a more rural location specifically because it's unsustainable. I wanted to get away with it while I could.

 

We grow some of our own vegetables trying to eat healthier.
We were able to find 6 acres in a farm area but close to a main highway for work commuting.

 

wow, we went from bev's to veggies in only 85 posts

 

i truly the rate at which we all hit off topic-ness.

On a more serious note & back OT, I kind of feel sad thinking about how Toyota is getting
left in the dust - technologically & efficiency wise & advanced clean car wise .... choosing in stead to dump tons of $$ into their weird & costly hydrogen science - dragging with it, million$ of California tax $$ that could be better spent just fixing bridges & potholes. Toyota pulled their corporate headquarters out of here & went to Texas. Seems like Texas should have to deal with Toyota's Shenanigans now.
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blame the pols, i don't feel sad.

 

Last weeks Economist had a series of featured articles where hydrogen was discussed at length. Don't dismiss it because of current sources and infrastructure.

 

hard not to dismiss it without facts and data
building a hydrogen fueling station isn't quite the same as ev charging station

 

Was a good read.

 

But we have facts.
Ignoring the cost of the fueling station, the cost per BTU of hydrogen is far greater than the cost per BTU of electricity.

BEV and FCEV both cost more than ICE cars. At least BEV are cheaper to operate, generally.

Mike

 

In principle you are correct...but..."replacing" the current infrastructure with either, higher unit cost vehicles and the retail price jack that WILL occur with those replacement fuels will still take more money out of the "consumers" pocket than now.

 

1. Everybody, Honda is doing 100% generator to motor transmission, meaning that even the generator has to be sized to a ICE power. Toyota can go half the size.
2. Lower cost? Have you seen this:

Apparently electric motors and power electronics are not that expensive. On the other hand normal drivetrains with DCT tend to be quite more expensive for the customer, how come? So you have conventional transmission cost + half sized MG against one half sized MG, one full sized MG and double power electronics. Manufacturing cost of the electric part may be $1,000 more (I doubt it), but what about that conventional or DCT transmission against some planetary gears? Not worth the $1,000 extra? Even if not, we are talking peanuts of diference here.

3. Better performance? It's not the transmission, it's the Atkinson NA PFI engine, have you seen first drives of UX 250h, with 2.0 D-4S motor? Apparently much better.
4. Toyota had to stick a 4 speed automatic. Who said they had to? It's a Lexus, they can play with it no matter the cost.

Selling price of the pickups is going through the roof in US, I really don't understand how Toyota is not taking part in the hybrid truck story. Maybe they are waiting for the competition and selling Tacomas for good profit while they can.

 

According to researchers, an EV is cheaper after 50,000 miles of ownership.
In addition, EVs are expected to reach sticker price parity in 2024-2025.

Everyone makes same mistake with electric cars - Business Insider

Are electric cars getting cheaper?

This is based on averages. There are some situations where particular EVs are at price parity now for some specific people.
Of course, there are also specific cases where price parity won’t happen by 2025.

 

who could ever dismiss one of the primary (NON) drivers of hydrogen impracticality .... cost of a "small" infrastructure? (ie - not really enough? ½ of what's needed? & when have there EVER NOT been huge cost under-estimates? ) 'only' a ½trillion? One truly has to be half asleep to hear that kind of cost & think going forward is not insane.
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Hydrogen might have a future as energy storage. Make it when renewable production is in excess, and then feed it to a fuel cell or turbine later.

Our gasoline and diesel infrastructure grew with cars. For an alternative to compete, its infrastructure can't take that time to grow with car adoption if the cars are to be successful. That would be a huge undertaking and expense for hydrogen. With the majority of EV charging being done at home, and PHEVs for those that need long trip range now, fast public charging infrastructure can grow at a more moderate rate.

It isn't even quite the same as building a gas station.

1. Series hybrids only need to be sized such when they don't have a battery for buffering. Otherwise, engine downsizing is still possible. The efficiency loss at higher speeds just make series only a better fit as a plug in range extender. Parallel hybrids also allow engine downsizing.

2. The motors in a power split hybrid are oversized. Parallel hybrids a small, second motor that replaces the starter and alternator. It is around 10kW in power, and is capable of high rpm starting of the engine. The smaller motor in a power-split is at least twice as powerful because it is also working as the substitute for the variable gears in a CVT.

Likewise, the other motor needs to be larger since it doesn't have the benefit of a transmission to alter its output. Conventional type transmissions and engines are made of aluminum and steel. Motors use large amounts of copper for windings, and need rare earth minerals for their magnets. Parallel hybrids use a smaller motor to reduce to amount of those rarer and more costly materials.

3. The performance I'm referring to is the reason why Toyota doesn't have a hybrid truck, and an advanced engine doesn't help, it is towing and hauling. The new Rav4 hybrid gets that new engine, and towing doesn't change.

All the power split-hybrids to date have had lower ratings than their ICE counterpart. The Rav4 hybrid is an exception in the US at this time, because it has more power than the ICE. Two-mode had a much lower rating than what was possible in the ICE models. Toyota only allowed towing with their hybrid SUVs when equipped with AWD, because they didn't want the HSD bearing to load all on its own. The ICE models can still out tow them, the Adventure trim Rav4 will have twice that of the hybrid's next year.

The Prius didn't get a tow rating until Toyota finally installed a transmission cooler, but its rating is lower than comparable cars.

4. I and others hypothesize that the hybrid system in the Lexus was actually a product from Toyota's partnership with Ford on a truck hybrid. The specs and cost make more sense for a truck. As you point out, sport performance can be achieved just through a better engine. Ford is going with a parallel hybrid for trucks.

 

You didn't write anything new, you think too much of existing products and you think those are physical limitations that can't be exceeded.

Raw material price for drivetrain is cheap, from this perspective you would get all the el. motors you wan't for $500 extra cost. No big deal.

Tow rating limit is what it is because of current design, who is stopping Toyota to add even better cooling or make bigger motors? Look what is Tesla doing with electric motors, with 4 of 180 kW motors they a towing 80.000 lb combined weight. That is 50 kW for 5,550 lb, with power split hybrid you would need 100 kW "Tesla" traction motor, 75 kW generator and 150 kW ICE and you would be able to pull 20,000 lb, is that not enough for a pick-up?

Medium sized pickups (Ranger, Tacoma...) in Europe have max total weight with the trailer at around 13,000 lb, I say that power split hybrid can handle this easily, just add some cooling here and there. I think the biggest cost here would be the battery, not because of capacity but because of short power (C) rating.

Toyota may be worried because of extra cost, but I say the market is ready for that, just don't cheap out on the electric part and it will sell, not because of the fuel economy, but because of driving characteristics.

 

The limit to towing with a power split isn't the power output, nor cooling, it's the transaxle.

Take the Highlander.
The 2.7L engine produces 185hp and has a 1500# tow rating.
The 3.5L produces 295hp, and has supplemental oil and transmission cooling. It can tow 5000#.
The hybrid also has the supplemental cooling, 306hp, and can only tow 3500#.
The tow rating for the ICE models doesn't change between FWD and AWD. When FWD was an option for the hybrid, the tow rating was zero.

Toyota wants to limit the load on the transaxle. So did GM with two-mode. It doesn't help that Toyota chose to use automatic transmission fluid in a gear case without any changing gears.

It appears the new Lexus hybrid transmission is more heavy duty, and the gears on the back end can provide different ratios to make getting a load moving easier. It likely could work for a pick up without compromise in terms ability, but it basically adds the cost of a 4 speed automatic to that of the hybrid system. Using a smaller motor, and essentially the same transmission as in the ICE models, a parallel hybrid will likely give you all the ability and better efficiency for lower cost.

 

Lets go back to the reasons claimed why it won't sell.

How many people give a darn about towing anything but a Harbor Freight 200 pound trailer?