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SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, Jan 26, 2020.

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  1. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    Elbows work.

    Posted via the PriusChat mobile app.
     
    #861 fuzzy1, Mar 19, 2020
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  2. Prodigyplace

    Prodigyplace Senior Member

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    Thanks for feeding my ignore list. It felt neglected.
     
    #862 Prodigyplace, Mar 19, 2020
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  3. noonm

    noonm Senior Member

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    Update 4 - 3/19/2020
    At this point we are in the thick of the exponential growth rollercoaster. The US (and most state hotspot) cases are skyrocketing. However, one ray of light in the storm is WA. They haven't turned the tide yet, but their cases do seem to be increasing at a slower rate. I'm not sure what exactly is causing this, but something about WA's response seems to be working better than NY's or CA's.

    [​IMG]
    Data is from COVID19 Tracker
     
    #863 noonm, Mar 19, 2020
  4. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    that seems right to me. it is hard to believe, with so little testing, that it hasn't
     
    #864 bisco, Mar 19, 2020
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  5. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    With the state of WA's graph, it seems their testing or reporting is sporadic
     
    #865 Trollbait, Mar 19, 2020
  6. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    massachusetts: 3,100 tests, 328 cases, 13% hospitalized
     
    #866 bisco, Mar 19, 2020
  7. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Many modeling approaches are available for phenomena that present themselves as ‘logistic’. It does not refer to delivering your packages. It refers to phenomena that start of slow, accelerate around ‘midtime’, and then increase more slowly towards a (nearly) fixed final value.

    Such models require 3 or more parameters to generate a curve of such a shape. There are many and in some instances, same models are used by different disciplines under different names.

    It is not a simple topic. Most often they are used to describe phenomena already finished. You know the whole ‘curve’ and you adjust parameters for the most accurate fit. Here, various models are applied to an incomplete phenomenon, then that ‘fit’ is carried forward. It is not particularly reliable, as one might guess.

    It can be called ‘particles’ that by their total interactions define the phenomenon and its curve shape. Most often interacting molecules, but these models are used for other things also. It is a central assumption that particles always interact the same with each other. This is not the case with human epidemic transmission. People can act one way early on, and differently later. Even the virus can evolve different transmissibility or lethality during the action. Also, countries interact.

    AFAIK all such models are symmetric, meaning that half the action comes before steepest (inflection) point and half after. Both China and S Korea have passed theirs. At China’s inflection point there were 47 thousand cases and currently (with no more reports of local transmission) the total is 81 thousand. In S Korea, ~3200 cases at inflection point and currently ~8400 and still increasing.

    Based on WHO sitreps I am looking for next countries to reach their inflection points. But even then, it will not be possible to accurately predict maximum values.
     
    #867 tochatihu, Mar 20, 2020
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  8. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    We've been dealing with it longer than any other U.S. state, so we have a longer experience base.
     
    #868 fuzzy1, Mar 20, 2020
  9. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Earlier I would have mentioned similarity between WA state and Singapore. But today Singapore had a large increase.
     
    #869 tochatihu, Mar 20, 2020
  10. George W

    George W Senior Member

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    Considering that a infected traveler was airlifted from China directly to a military hospital in San Antonio, I'm not sure that is the case.
     
    #870 George W, Mar 20, 2020
  11. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    Note also that we still have twice as many accumulated deaths as any other state.

    And a nursing home facility that, where the usual resident death rate was 4 to 7% per month, has now lost 1/3rd of its residents in a mere 3 weeks.

    So those others states' responses are still playing catch-up. Ideally, they will have learned enough from us that their tolls won't fully catch up. But given their larger populations, that would be a very aggressive goal.
     
    #871 fuzzy1, Mar 20, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 20, 2020
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  12. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    If I might say, things are difficult almost everywhere. Each country/region has chosen its response path. and some of those may change.

    I expect some readers might look for 'worst case' and also look lower from there. That might be seen from 11 million Wuhan city people. Their case and death rates, applied to 7.6 billion global lung sets, would give 35 million cases and 1.7 million fatalities. I don't believe that 'world' could go as badly as Wuhan has gone.

    Move out to (Wuhan's) Hubei Province. Extending their numbers to global, 8.7 million cases and 400 thousand fatalities.I expect global will resemble those numbers. Those dead would be similar to annual seasonal influenza deaths, saying nothing about future years.

    These ratios on China outside Hubei Province have already been exceeded outside China, so I anticipate infective repatriation 'backflow' will grow as a thing here. Few outside China will dwell on that, having your own local matters of more concern.
     
    #872 tochatihu, Mar 20, 2020
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  13. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    cali gov newsom extends 'shelter in place' to the entire state
     
    #873 bisco, Mar 20, 2020
  14. noonm

    noonm Senior Member

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    I think its entirely possible the world's response could lead to a situation worse than Wuhan. That UK study that spurred both the UK and US governments into action specified 2.2 million deaths in the US alone (assuming no mitigation factors).

    Until I see the inflection points for countries beyond China and South Korea, my prior is still "world meets or exceeds Wuhan" with respect to cases and deaths.
     
    #874 noonm, Mar 20, 2020
  15. mjoo

    mjoo Senior Member

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    What are Californians doing when they need to buy groceries? Is this a strict house arrest?
     
    #875 mjoo, Mar 20, 2020
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  16. Raytheeagle

    Raytheeagle Senior Member

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    It is "shelter in residence";).

    So not true lockdown. We can venture out, but the guidance is for only essential things. For grocery stores, some are opening the first hour on certain days for "seniors only" to avoid that high risk population from interacting with other age groups.

    I know on my commute this week the traffic is very light and the BART station has very sparse people.

    If the spread doesn't stop, we'll proofread to the next level, which is what Italy is currently experiencing. I have a colleague over there and she shared the differences of life now.

    Helps put into perspective the changes being made and how we all can help:
    • Good hygiene
    • Wipe surfaces down with disinfectant
    • Social distancing
    I have set up video conferencing with my "non-essential" staff twice a day so they are getting visual social interaction as that is important.

    When you just "turn off the faucet" of social interactions, it can leave a vacuum and when some are used to being around others, they need that support.

    So that's what I'm doing out here on the best coast(y).
     
    #876 Raytheeagle, Mar 20, 2020
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  17. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    we have a funeral tomorrow. what a sad fiasco
     
    #877 bisco, Mar 20, 2020
  18. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    #878 fuzzy1, Mar 20, 2020
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  19. noonm

    noonm Senior Member

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    I apologize for the suggestion, but I think you should postpone. The risks of spreading COVID-19 at large, multi-generational gatherings is high. The last thing you would want is for the mourning of one person to lead to the mourning of many others in the near future.

    A NJ family just went through the horrific experience of 4 family members recently dying from COVID-19:
    Coronavirus Ravages 7 Members of a Single Family, Killing 4 - The New York Times
     
    #879 noonm, Mar 20, 2020
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  20. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    #880 fuzzy1, Mar 20, 2020
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