SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

if the virus research lab turns out to be the culprit, it's going to be a train wreck

 

Then could we store our masks, sanitizer, and attend mass gatherings?

Personally, finding patient zero is a waste of time except to identify what public health worked and didn’t. ...

Or perhaps all virus research labs should be closed leaving us to ‘thoughts and prayers.’

Bob Wilson

 

well, if research on a potential future problem leads to the problem, it may be a problem.

it's like nuclear power. it's great, until it's not.

 

Finding the index case, or patient zero as some calls the case is not the reason for the search. The object is to find the origin of the pathogenic strain of the virus. Without knowing where it first originated, we can not make any preparation for re-emergence of the next virus, SARS-CoV-3

 

we could shut down 'if'-ie labs ... except those countries that only' say' they would shut down? .... actually wouldn't. Thus - all the others are compelled to carry on. So ... back to prayer
.

 

I understand curiosity about patient zero but not when it distracts from patient-tomorrow. For example, someone who claims the source is an effective answer for what we won't do after the next dawn.

Mapping the RNA sequence makes sense because it can help identify treatments. It may even offer a history if the RNA has a faint 'log' of the previous infected. But otherwise, it is secondary to addressing what is already in circulation. More importantly, virus investigation labs have a responsibility to safely handle the material under investigation but having labs is not the problem.

Source: China's Wuhan nearly doubles number of COVID-19 tests per day - Reuters

BEIJING (Reuters) - The city of Wuhan, where the new coronavirus outbreak originated in China, conducted 222,675 nucleic acid tests on May 16, the local health authority said on Sunday, nearly doubling from a day earlier.

Wuhan kicked off a campaign on May 14 to look for asymptomatic carriers - people who are infected but show no outward sign of illness - after confirming last weekend its first cluster of COVID-19 infections since its release from a virtual lockdown on April 8.​

Bob Wilson

 

I would be careful about believing any reports from China. The brave young female doctor who sounded an alarm about China mishandling the response for Covid 19 still has not been found or heard from since.

Here is an article about what happens in China if you give facts about the disease -

Dr. Li Wenliang was arrested for warning China about the coronavirus. Then he died from it - Los Angeles Times.

China also sent 'helpers' all over the world to countries likely exporting the infection along with the helpers.

China may have had an opportunity to limit this disease impact on the world and assist with invaluable information on its origin, spread, treatments and infection rates but chose to hide the truth- lie about numbers, limit all foreign access and punish -potentially kill people who attempted to warn the world.

Believe any information currently coming from China or WHO who showed no leadership or authority when this was isolated to China and is now also trying to make a case for its existence? - no.
China cut itself off from the world purposely, endangering the world and now is trying to crawl back in to avoid any economic impact due to its selfish poor decision making. It is naive to believe information now coming from this country or WHO.

I might ask the citizens from Wuhan or the missing whistle blowers about the validity of information coming out of China or the WHO.

Coronavirus Survivors Want Answers, and China Is Silencing Them - The New York Times

 

oh boy, now you've incited the new york times speech.

 

I have to emphasize again that focus of search is not the "patient zero". The most important thing is to find the origin of the SARS-CoV-2. Without the knowledge on how it originated first among the human population, preventing and preparing for the re-emergence is almost impossible.

For the search, researchers are currently considering two possible and equally probable theories on the origin of the SARS-CoV-2:
1. The current pathogenic form of SARS-CoV-2 evolved in its natural host animals and then mutated virus "jumped" from animal to human and became infectious and pathogenic to human cells.
2. The new strain of coronavirus "jumped" from animals to humans before it became capable of causing human disease. Then, within a small population of human, mutation and adaptation over years or even decades, the virus finally became infectious and pathogenic enough to cause serious life-threatening disease.

Current epidemiological and phylogenetic studies lacks enough samples from both wild reservoirs and pre-COVID-19 human to test and validate which theory is correct.

 

Agreed.

At least the WIV researcher defends her research as valid and necessary.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-chinas-bat-woman-hunted-down-viruses-from-sars-to-the-new-coronavirus1/?print=true

 

that was a good article. unfortunately, the more information you get, the more questions arise

 

they're very likely the "never to be revealed" answers to questions.
.

 

i feel like a lot of data isn't being revealed, or at least, isn't being analyzed properly

 

Closing the borders early, mandatory 14 day isolation for any travellers including interstate and actually locking down travel between towns unless absolutely essential. The hand washing for 30 secs every time you touched a suspect surface resulting completely avoiding touching suspect surfaces because you get sick and tired of hand washing every 5 mins :lol: Every business that was still operating, like supermarkets, chemists, hardware stores and doctors had sanitiser at the door that you had to use before entering and as you were leaving and a strict social distancing and limited number of contacts to one none member of the household, even when out exercising.
On the whole people were very well behaved and accepted the lock down was for the good of themselves and the community. Lots of testing and contact tracing so outbreaks could be contained very quickly.
We did have another death yesterday bringing the total to 99 Covid19 deaths, a lot were connected to the cruise ships and the debacle where a lot of infected passengers were allowed to simply join public transport and fly inter state spreading the virus across the country.
I believe we now have 3 of the 8 states and territories with no current Covid cases, all have recovered and those hospitalised have been released. We are seeing a few outbreaks now a lot of the lock down measures are being gradually eased, but they are containing those outbreaks quickly at the moment.
The part that is scaring a few now is contact tracing to McDonalds outlets with either staff or delivery drivers testing positive. Yet to see if it has transferred to the home delivery drivers, that would really throw a spanner in the works

T1 Terry

 

we also did all those things, perhaps not early enough. but a large part of our cases and deaths have been long term care facilities, inner cities with high density populations and essential workers not being protected on the job.
iirc, we did not do a good job quarantining people coming back into the country, and testing got off to a bad start.
we also have a large contingent of people who do not like following rules.

 

If the graph you've drawn doesn't show you the decreasing trend you wanted, don't fret! Just reorder the days along the x axis until it looks the way you want.



You might also think of putting the counties in different order from day to day, for a consistently-downward look.

The blogger I linked above also presents a nice graph from somewhere that diddles the y axis scale, but doesn't seem to say where that one was from. (Maybe it was mentioned in a previous blog post.)

Maybe caught originally in this tweet.

This link takes me to a later tweet by Stephen Fowler describing reaction to that one. But Twitter seems to have some sort of poison pill going versus the Wayback Machine; if I go to the Wayback Machine and ask it to archive that page, Twitter responds that there is no such page and the Wayback Machine saves that result.

 

Things are looking pretty good here. No major reopening outbreaks yet

 

"If"!

 

The COVID-19 timeline appears to be:

• 10-14 days - before symptoms develop, meanwhile, spread to next
• R ~2 - how many are infected by one individual
• ~20% go to hospital
• ~6% die in 14-21 days
• repeat

I'm fairly sanguine about what is going to happen. At least this next hump:

1. There is an effective plasma antibody treatment from the first group
2. Effective SARS-CoV-2 tests
3. COVID-19 antibody tests
4. Masks, protective gear, and multiple respirator sources
5. Hotspots are easily identified: nursing homes, jails, and meat processing plants

Bob Wilson