Featured Toyota EV market innovation

Imagine relying on only one provider and they know it (from personal data the consumer freely gives away). A consumers' strongest power is their power to choose. Once that's conceded, all other decisions are from a weaker position.

 

They also have the largest percentage of the country's population at 12%. The states with low population density in the 'fly over' area can have an annual miles average of 20k miles or more.

Some European cities are banning even hybrids from their perimeters, but is a comparison between a country and a state. A country could keep a vehicle type from being sold within its borders. Even if California did get car sales within state to 100% ZEV, they can't stop people from bringing in ICE cars from out of state.

That is a big if there. The phrasing of the order is far from an authoritarian dictation; it's a 100% ZEV if feasible order. As I said before, this is more about letting CARB to continue increasing the ZEV credit quota past 2025. At that time the quota will be ZEV credits equal to 22% of vehicle sales. For the large volume car makers, 16% need to be ZEV; a BEV or FCEV. Smaller car companies can use PHEVs for their credits. To meet that 16%, the car maker needs to sell 40 to 50 BEVs per 1000 sales, even less with FCEVs. If the final 6% were PHEVs, it would be about 55 cars. So the 22% for ZEV credits works out to about 10% of the cars sold being TZEV or ZEV.

The ZEV quota started at 4.5% in 2018. Just continuing the current trend means it will be 47% by 2035. Unless there is a drastic decrease in the cost of ZEVs, with production to meet demand, I don't see Carb going above 50% by 2035.

Tesla's can make use of CHAdeMO, but right now Superchargers are cheaper and faster. The other charger networks need to make a profit, while Supercharger rates are at cost for maintenance and expansion.

 

just to qualify the statement, quick charging is primarily intended for folks who don't have access to charging near their apartment, or a local 40 amp AC unit at work, or overnight home charging, those, in addition to supercharging round out the needs of EV owners. It wouldn't be right to argue an insidious aspect of Tesla or any other charging infrastructure - because they saw the wisdom in making electric cars practical & convenient - especially for the convenience of your own product. The fact other manufacturers don't want to buy into it, that might be a different story.
.

 

Fast DC charging makes cross county driving possible. AC charging works fine in town but not so good for cross country driving.

Bob Wilson

 

looking at the chart - iduno



• Tesla's turnover 2008-2018 | Statista

not to mention 2020 - even despite the downturned ICE industry, fires, rioters, jiena virus.

Regarding OP's EV Market innovation article, if Toyota (or any company) leapfroging is supposed to turn on solid state batteries (or any orher silver bullet) , but no one can predict WHEN/if SS maybe ready for Primetime? And even if leapfrogging others is to occur, would that require some kind of exclusive battery deal that other manufacturers can obtain? Also - how long does it take for new battery to get into volume production once it's out there?

If there's any take away from the article, it looks to be this;

alleged Fraud in Nikola's hydrogen development ... hope the case isn't as bad as it sounds
.

 

and most “electric capable” cars travel far fewer miles annually than that

Study finds EVs are traveling less than half the US fleet average - Green Car Congress

Wisconsin BEVs only seem to go about 3500 miles a year

 

That study is deeply outdated. It only collected data on bev's bought between 2014 and 2017 in california - meaning it was mostly leafs or similar low range bevs. It did note the teslas (mainly model S) consumed about twice as much - which would be around 11,000 miles per year. The most popular bev is the tesla model 3, which is long range and not included.

The only real conclusion to draw is short range bevs sold in california are rarely the households only car. A previous study showed that volts bought in that time period put on as many electric miles as leafs.

 

So this last weekend, I drove about 1,500 miles to visit my Mom and youngest brother. Guess I don't f care about this posting.

I might beyond wondering if both ICE and EV milage in the winter were accurately recorded.

Bob Wilon

 

Bob

this isn’t an attack

The miles per car looks like a reverse bell curve, per the government there is at least one crackhead driving 1000+ miles a day which invalidates most assumptions about this topic gas or electric and invalidates the concept of average miles

Anyway
if you include trips and leasure 78% of Americans average under 40 miles a day
How Did GM determine that 78% of Commuters Drive Less Than 40 miles per day? | GM Volt Forum

This number is moderately meaningless due to the problems of very uneven distribution and the fact most people divide their miles over multiple vehicles.
(Aka no one drives the average miles, usually way below or way above)

The lower 50% of the driving population goes under 20 miles per day averaged out including trips. (See chart)
20 miles of city or traffic = 4kwhrs (or less)
Only winter coupled with high speeds approach 3miles/kwhr which is mainly an EPA creation

Note that the number of miles driven by private cars goes down every year, only 60% of petroleum is used privately (and going down every year) sadly that 60% also includes home fuel oil which once removed shrinks the number further.

Understand that many people do not drive the same car on road trips that they commute with
each person owns on average 2.28 cars
And a full third of Americans have driven a rental car at least once this year.

This is important because the EV is unlikely to be the 3000 mile Grand Canyon round trip vehicle that drives up annual miles travelled.
It’s also unlikely to be an EV rental except under very specific circumstances. (Regional)

In my case my daily activities add up to 3500 plug in miles a year (pre covid) but I normally drive 1-2 3000-4000 mile trips each year.
I own an old plug in, do you think I take that on the long trips up north outside even Tesla infrastructure?

Your argument about your own use is not representative of even average gas car drivers and typically most EV owners are in the lower percentile of drivers

Remember also that commuting distances have DECREASED since 2003 and likely will continue to dwindle as car ownership rates drop.

if we look at commutes the numbers are even smaller hashing out as follows

condense what is written
78% of drivers average under 40 miles per day including all road trips (which may or may not involve their own car)

The lower 68% of cars average under 7.2 miles a day.
The lower 64% of people drive 4 or less days of the week.

 

yea .... because every one knows - electrons for harvesting a gallon of toxic, carcinogenic, explosive, respitory destroying, non-renewable, geopolitical war causing gasoline - only has a byproduct of children's laughter & bright sunshine.

.

 

Maybe rephrase to "each family"? My wife is primary owner of her car, I'm listed as co-owner. I as primary of mine, her as co-owner. 3 of the 4 houses nearest me have 4 cars. A car for each occupant plus a toy or utility vehicle.

My extended family owns 3 hybrids, 1 prime. When my son's family of 5 go skiing with a dog and their equipment they rent a van. Maybe 25 one way miles to his work, maybe 20 miles a week for her for family stuff.

When the grands take the three gkids to the beach with all the umbrellas, chairs, rafts, boards, etc, we rent a van.

And like you describe we 2 take a long trip at least once a year that puts many hundreds of miles on one of our cars. I've often said, 90% are short to the store trips but well more than 50% of the total miles are at highway speeds and distances. For us our dealer and Walmart are 3 one way miles away, hardly warm up distance. But Costco is 30 and the grand kids are 45 and horse back riding where grand #1 rides while we talk is 25. In normal times we'd be talking one of those intermediate length trips maybe twice a week. So what is average?

What does the last few days do to an argument for more EVs when the grid can't heat homes in 30% of the states and wind farms are frozen? Climate change politics got suddenly crazy.

 

My Std Rng Plus Model 3 experience:

• February 16, 2021 - today's date
• March 26, 2019 - delivery date
• 693 days
• 35,535 miles odometer
• 51.3 miles average per day

Typical long distance segment, 700-750 miles in a 14-16 hour day. Typical cross country scenario:

• 200 - 230 miles (overnight) - first segment with a full charge to reach furtherest SuperCharger
• 120-180 miles (20-40 min SuperCharger) - subsequent segments such as my most recent return, winter trip:
  • Coffeyville (overnight)
  • Joplin MO
  • Ozark AR
  • Little Rock AR
  • Memphis TN
  • Tupelo MS
  • Huntsville AL (home)

I appreciate the need for statistical studies to vehicle specifications. However, an ICE replacement must solve both the local and long distance requirements or I'm not buying it.

Bob Wilson

 

I generally prefer statistical data in peer reviewed articles over anecdotal information.
However, people tend to read more into statistical data than it actually states.

My guess would be that the idea that, on average, BEV owners drive those vehicles less than the average ICE owner is accurate.
I would suggest this should not be taken as proof that BEV owners are limited by the BEV, but rather, those who drive less may have been more comfortable with a BEV.

I know in our case, we started driving more, and further, than we had in our previous ICE car.
It would be interesting to see statistics about how much the same group drove prior to their EV ownership.

 

I don't think that the last few days impact it. The should be less driving in general in such harsh weather.

 

When I was a kid we had the electricity go out 2-3 days several times and there was no such thing as solar.

The “car” math is available PER PERSON only, per family is nearly impossible and doesn’t mean much. It also doesn’t include vehicles that aren’t considered a car, including 2-3 wheelers or commercial vehicles.

My point was not to say EV owners are limited, my point is that half of cars could easily be a BEV without any change to the grid because there is such a disparity in how many miles the upper mileage cars and lower mileage cars drive and because it would use so little energy as to be unnoticed.

I too after owning a plug in did more “short day trips” purely electrically to nearish natural areas thus increasing miles driven but that also was related to changes in my life and work.
Also when going to these places I purposefully took the shortest, slowest most scenic route allowing me to top 6-7 miles per kwhr thus using less power to go further.
Generally I would make my Volts battery last to my destination and back without using gas “no matter what” which meant a hard limit of 10.2kwhrs even if going 72 miles.
As a result of hypermiling and a reduction in my home energy use I honestly use less electricity with an PHEV than I did before owning the car.


In terms of what happened in Texas grid failure has nothing to do with wind or solar and everything to do with shutdown gas plants and deregulation .
Texas electric grid was at the mercy of cold weather - The Washington Post
Only poor planning including how homes are built and heated in Northern Texas alongside incompetent home owners and incompetent regional building standards and incompetent deregulated power operators

Resistance heating as your sole heat source should be banned as it’s so extremely useless and inefficient.
Even forced air by itself is a bad idea unless you have a backup generator.
I tend to believe houses should use a passive method of heating that needs no external electricity or at the very least have it as a backup.
The sad part is every house powered by a coal, nuclear or natural gas power plant could be heated by the same plant if we would do what Europe does and send the hot waste water to heat surrounding houses within a hundred mile radius. Water and gas “usually “ don’t fail like electric distribution

Those pushing resistance heating both in the too cheap to measure era 50-60’s and the too incompetent to build a conforming house era 2005+ and in the Atlantic region (general infrastructure incompetence)
Are to blame for the use of an outdated inefficient technology without a passive backup.

If homes would be held to common standards regardless of location and common sense levels a power outage wouldn’t create an apocalypse.

That said a strong nuclear (preferably thorium) backbone alongside a ban on homes with resistance heating as their primary heat is prudent across the us.

We also shouldn’t throw away half our power plants energy into a lake or river.

ah well

 

I don’t believe that number is correct. Do you have the source of that data?
What I was able to find did find that the average household has 1.88 cars.

Source: • Number cars per household in the U.S. | Statista

 

In my case we leased a Leaf for 3 years while on the Model 3 waiting list. The useful range of 90-100 miles was just barely too low to replace most medium range trips -- thus we used the PIP and gas for many trips. But we still drove about 50-50 between the two cars for those years. 25 or so more miles of range would have made it closer to 66% Leaf.

Mike

True. But how many people want to live close enough to a power plant to make it economical to pump hot water to their homes?

And I don't think Carnot agrees that a "usable" half goes into the lake/river.

Mike

 

Sort of off topic, but for decades large cities had steam and hot water available to businesses and apartments. The service was sold just like natural gas or electricity.

Dan

 

My number was a quote of a quote and appears to be a regional anomaly outside cities excluding people not of driving age.

also the chart of miles traveled is a screenshot from government publication that was used to create the Chevy Volt claims by GM, my claims of the lower 50% of commuting distances are also from energy.gov and bureau of transportation related publications

My hometown is built around a power plant complex, hot water is easily transported 100 miles by pipe (if we use Europe’s example) so I would say it’s a will issue as current law prevents common sense use.

Also 70F is “useable” directly and all plants emit water into the environment at or above this temp while making absolutely no effort to keep it at any higher temperature (most try to bleed heat on the way to make sure they don’t on the off chance exceed limits)
Below 70 but above ambient provides a convenient cheap source of distilled heat pump water.

As stated Europe has done it for years, it’s not like it’s anything new just no will power to use these techniques to recover spent energy. Our legal framework is the main obstacle.

Areas and businesses near power plants and certain industrial systems should be mandated to have an extra pipe for constant hot water flow, in some cases this water is also distilled and very useful for “other purposes “ than heating water bodies .

min my area the region near the plants is brand new construction ripe for this, too bad

 

..... lemy guess ..... 1 of 3 guesses oughta be right ....

One - it means only 70% of homes are heated with propane or natural gas?

Two - it means you pull into a gas station and the pumps won't be working?

Three - there are lots of unprepared people in areas that have bad weather, but they never thought to get a generator ?

Even here in So. Cal we run a Honda 6500 - converted to run on either natural gas, or our 200Lb propane tank, or gasoline. It'll charge our plugin car to full in 2hrs. Your resiliency may vary.

.