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SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, Jan 26, 2020.

  1. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    Just remember something that the authorities (people we're SUPPOSED to TRUST!!) should have considered when this whole thing kicked off.

    Isolation just might have it's own down-range cost.

    Don't be afraid to reach out.....or GET out! ;)
     
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  2. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    In 'politics' version of this, discussion of a (2020) assessment of how many Americans are susceptible to COVID infection. If somebody wanted to do this now, I think it could flow from analysis of (probably) available data. Further that it seems a number worth knowing, and it could be projected for future higher extent of vaccination. Helpful flow chart follows

    fracs.png
    Each of 3 groups below the 3 arrows contributes to current total susceptible population. Add them up. Please suggest revisions if any.
     
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  3. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    until and if another variant comes along...
     
  4. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    They didn't officially shut down. However, the government did suggest all the actions of a shut down, and a large portion of the people and businesses followed them. They even had the economic downturn of a shutdown.
     
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  5. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    From Worldometers:

    Sweden: 1482 deaths/1Mpop
    Denmark: 484 /M
    Finland: 227 /M
    Norway: 183 /M
    Iceland: 99 /M

    So Sweden's Covis-19 death rate is 3X worse than Denmark, 6.5X worse than Finland, 8X worse than Norway, and 15X worse than Iceland. If that is anyone's idea of "no worse for wear", then I'd hate to see what does exceed their threshold ...

    ... oh, right, the USA at 2386 /M.


    There's this too:

    upload_2021-11-23_19-43-50.png
     
  6. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    Two doses to get started is not the least bit unusual for a vaccine. A modern vaccine schedule shows several with 3 or even 4 doses in the first year. I'm seeming to remember some travel vaccines also required multiple doses, but my international vaccine passport is in hiding right now.

    But after any initial series, only influenza has previously required annual re-vaccination. We were talking here about Covid-19 possibly needing a similar frequent schedule, even 18 months ago, due to the behavior of its coronavirus relatives that cause common colds.

    An initial U.S. recommendation was going to be to wait at least until 8 months for the first booster, but they settled on a minimum of 6 months, and no specific rush to get it that soon. If I end up getting boosters every 6 months, my covid-vaxx count won't catch up to my flu-vaxx count until I'm in my 90s. An 8 month interval (already past that this time) would push catch-up out past my 120th birthday.
     
  7. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    100%?

    What are the percentages who have survived influenza?
     
  8. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    1918?

    Bob Wilson
     
  9. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    so - population is part of the puzzle too - as more crowded/populated communities pass it along easier. New Jersey compared to Florida as example?
    Deaths per m
    Jersey ~ 3,100
    Florida ~ 2,800

    (Florida branded as crazies)

    Similarly, taking Jersey California New York lock downs (generalize term - ie; more dramatic counter measures) averaged together - higher deaths/m. than the crazy Floridians.
    .
     
  10. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    and timing. some nursing homes got hit hard before anyone had a clue
     
  11. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    No, the descendants of that H1N1 bug.
    The initial survival rate of that critter is well (if inaccurately) documented.
    105 million in the US minus roughly 675,000 fatalities for the initial three years, or (despite what you hear from the "experts") 3x the current bug.

    Back then there were not as many scary stories about the number of cases.

    Since gift shops back then didn't have "I Survived The Spanish Flu!" T-shirts, the percentage of folks who were actually infested can only be guestimated, poorly, since folks back then had this crazy idea about counting only the people who died from THAT novel virus.

    The crazy Floridians are vaccinated at a higher rate than....say...the crazy Michiganders. ;)
    But.....yes.
    There is an argument than can be made that if you eviscerate the economy of your state through lockdowns "California style" you can "save lives" on the front end.
    You'd have to get statisticians and sociologists to agree on the back end cost.

    Benjamin Franklin (FRS FRSA FRSE) writer, scientist, inventor, statesman, diplomat, printer, publisher and political philosopher did not say that "Those who would give up essential Liberty, COULD NOT purchase a little temporary Safety"
    Speaking of which.....
    I'm old enough to remember a long ago time (2015) when government-funded radio batted from the other box on this issue, but they did bring up an interesting, if quite out of context point about the context of the famous quote....

    Remember. The Colonials force-inoculated their troops against the pox. But then......smallpox is a much more efficient life-taker than the rona.....;)

     
    #5171 ETC(SS), Nov 24, 2021
    Last edited: Nov 24, 2021
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  12. ChapmanF

    ChapmanF Senior Member

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    Thanks ... that's a bit of context I hadn't known myself.
     
  13. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    ^ Even if presented......slightly out of context. ;)
     
  14. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    Is this a suggestion that Sweden is much more crowded than any of its Nordic neighbors?
    Similarly, are Mississippi (3445) and Alabama (3281) the most crowded places in this country? Or did they have the most dramatic countermeasures?

    Note also that Louisiana (3177) is breathing down New Jersey's neck, and Arizona (3031) not far behind. And Arkansas (2859) and Georgia (2854) are catching up to New York (2970). And you really miss on California's (1878) position, it isn't even in the front half of the pack.

    Checking a local covid dashboard, I see Seattle's death rate is 710, its county's rate is 920. Does this suggest that Seattle is much less crowded than the U.S. as a whole (2406)? Or that it took much less drastic countermeasures?
     
  15. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    All valid questions, as are depression/increased suicide rates with helpful/disease reducing lockdowns.
    .
     
  16. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    People like to cherry-pick their talking points.
    Florida (God's waiting room) "perhaps" might be a slightly older state than one of those itty-bitty blue county-sized states......like Maine.
    Mississippi and Louisiana, blessed with edible food as opposed to the slop they serve up North "might" have a little more rotund population.....OR a little more ethnically diverse citizenry, since persons of color probably have different outcomes.

    In other words...
    It's a Rorschach test.
    WYSIWYS

    Suicide rates are only useful when those rates are....ah...."weaponized".....and besides, I thought that "death with dignity" was something of a "thing" with a certain group of folks - EXCEPT when certain methods are used.

    As long as we're throwing live squirrels about.......
    Drug Overdose Deaths in the U.S. Top 100,000 Annually

    Up nearly 30% since......the last administration.

    Happy Thanksgiving. :)
     
    #5176 ETC(SS), Nov 24, 2021
    Last edited: Nov 24, 2021
  17. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    Suicides actually declined in 2020, for the second consecutive year.

    Though that was swamped by the continuing surge in unintentional drug overdose deaths.
     
  18. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    New Jersey has a large retirement population.
     
  19. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    Speaking of 2020, & hard to reconcile - & if I'm reading stats correctly, there were less deaths in 2020 from covid here (US) than 2021 so far?
    .
     
  20. ChapmanF

    ChapmanF Senior Member

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    So, the point of the piece was that those words of Franklin's are often deployed in a way uninformed by their original context. Which, as I now think about it, looks to be true of the bulk of the times I've ever seen or heard those words deployed.

    Was the presentation "out of context" because it brought the original context of the phrase into a discussion where somebody else had paraphrased it to apply to police technology?

    Might have been something "out of context" going on there, but how to decide where?