Pouring gasoline on the EV demand fire

So you are really complaining about a premium milk brand vs commodity gasoline. Not a straight comparison, more of a First World problem.

Shifting to something closer to commodity milk, you have almost answered your original question. I showed a price listing that did.

This sheds a whole new light on your posts.

The stock market is a long term game, and any experienced investor recognizes the decline of the past couple months as a common 'correction' that we have seen very many times before. Quite normal for somewhat overheated markets, and also for pre-war jitters. Anyone portraying this as 'evaporating retirements' is extremely short sighted, or ignorant of equity markets, or simply ill suited for stock market investing.

The reality is that the stock market is still way up over this longest market expansion ever. Here is the DJIA30 over this 13 year expansion, up 5X since the end of the Great Housing Recession:


Alternatively, the S&P500 is up 6X over the same period:



Restated from a less sensationalist view, both are up 'only' 3X since the Dot Com / Y2K peak in 2000. But that is much better than Stable Value funds. Workers using periodic dollar cost averaging to put their retirement funds into equities have done very well, even if today is not quite as bloated as back in December. This is how so many 55+ workers were able to deal with this Pandemic by retiring.

People who cannot tolerate a 10-20% loss over a couple months, have absolutely no business being invested in equity markets in the first place. That is why there are also Stable Value Funds for investors with a very short horizon, or with no tolerance for any shrinkage.

 

Not trying to go off-topic, but I don't think the price of 1 gal of milk is a whole lot cheaper than the price of 1 gal of gasoline everywhere in the US. I just checked the local Walmart prices. The cheapest 1 gal milk is $3.69 which happens to be Great Value Fat-Free Milk. It is by no means premium milk. And the lowest gas price I find around here is $3.49.

 

I was just in a Safeway/Albertsons-chain store minutes ago, and saw several choices at $2.99, same as the Kroger chain (under Fred Meyer and QFC names) here.

A quick check shows that the nearest Walmart here is charging $3.53 for its cheapest gallon of milk. I.e. Walmart is not price competitive on milk here, though still slightly below the very cheapest gas.

 

One thing to point out is since 2014 a lot of states have been aggressive about increasing the state gaso taxes, so that's part of the higher price, am I right @Trollbait? I avoid Pa. gaso like the plague when I travel to Pittsburgh these days. NJ has quit its low gaso tax policy. My best bet is Md. out of the RFG area. NoVA we got blue and Dems increased gaso tax + we have RFG. Rural Virginia is great price but I do not get there.

 

Knock paranoia. Sigh, I think I need to get help...

REVVL V+ 5G ?

 

At your location, may be true. Not true in my area. Walmart brand milk is the least expensive gallon of milk I can find locally. At the nearest grocery store, the least expensive 1 gal of store brand milk is $3.80. So, my claim "I don't think the price of 1 gal of milk is a whole lot cheaper than the price of 1 gal of gasoline everywhere in the US" is still valid. In fact, in my area, it is certainly hard to find a 1 gallon of milk that is cheaper than 1 gal of gasoline at $3.49/gal at a no-brand gas station right now.

 

dup delete

 

a car that runs on milk. first we get the milk from cows, then the hydrogen. now that would be genius!

 

After reading this morning's news, I was a little surprised that Gasbuddy shows the same prices this morning as I was seeing yesterday when out and about. We'll see what happens as the day goes on, though.

Very true. We seem to have some sort of correction in the 1st quarter almost every year. A couple years ago it was combined with the COVID panic and now it's a war panic. Think of it like canned tuna. Right now, it's on sale. Bad time to be selling it but a good time to be "stocking up" because the price will go back up.

 

we have a yearly heating oil price cap, but i have to wonder ifthere is an 'acts of war' clause

 

It is nice to know the monthly cost of heating oil for the season in advance, but in most cases, the budget plan or price lock plan for heating oil results in costing more than buying at market price as you go, especially for the long run. For that reason, I don't even have an automatic delivery option enabled on my #2 heating oil account. I decide when to buy oil and stock up. I wish we have an additional tank to take advantage of the price dip, but we don't. So, try to time the purchase at the lowest point when our 275 gal tank has room to take delivery. We use an average of ~600 gal/year. The price of oil has doubled since two years ago, but that was the historical low point at $1.30/gal in May 2020. The high price point this season last fall was at $2.95/gal which is still lower than the historical high of $3.65/gal in the last 15 years span in Feb 2014. I was paying well above $3/gal for #2 oil between 2011 to 2014.

 

We "prebuy" our estimated annual #2 heating oil in the Summer which is when the price tends to dip to its lowest level due to lower demand. This is about equivalent to buying oil options on the commodity futures market. So the oil that we are burning now cost me $2.89/gallon (plus the lost interest on the cash to buy 1100 gallons of oil).

JeffD

 

The problem is that trend of summer oil prices being cheaper has not been consistent enough to win the bet all the time. If the prebuy price is the summer market price, then that would be the same as timing the purchase and taking delivery and stocking the oil for winter, but most oil companies, certainly mine does put a "premium" on any lock-in (or guarantee) price or pre-buy price over the market price if the oil is not get delivered immediately. I understand that they don't want to lose money on the "bet" either. As in most betting games, the house almost always wins. They put premium just high enough so that even in case the price goes in favor of the buyer, they still make money over time.

I have pre-purchased oil one season early on when we first moved here and lost the bet miserably. The summer locked price continued to dip into record low during winter and I was still paying much higher locked in summer price for the oil delivered to our house all season long.

Certainly, for this year, and the year before, if you have locked the price in June for the following heating season, you have won the bets. But if you did the same in 2019, 2015, 2014, 2008... you would have lost the bet.

See the trend, the red mark is roughly the data point for the June price for that year... If it slopes up you win, if slopes down you lose. If it stays about the same, then you lose (because of the premium you are paying).

 

Pennsylvania's tax is percentage on the wholesale side, so gas prices climb higher.

Maybe. The knock sensors let cars safely run octanes below regular these days.

The existence milk stouts says we can make ethanol from milk. Human milk has the highest levels of sugar though. Lactose is important for brain development.

 

This AM:

Milk (Whole, Vitamin D) $3.39 at wally, $4.82 for a name brand (Borden) and $6.98 for "organic" (Fairlife.)
We usually get almond milk except for cooking and some of the littles in our life, and thusly almost never buy milk by the gallon.

Gas was $3.10 last night at a "Love's" truck stop, but is already threatening $3.30 in town......
DJIA is around 32.5k probably down about 5-6$ over the last few days - but I have a 401.k and only look at it every month or so, and intend not to do much with it for another 10 years (health and job dependent) so the market concerns me little.

If 90-percent of it goes away tomorrow I would be inpacted like everybody else but I wouldn't be looking for a building or bridge to jump from.

Time to watch a YouTube rerun of the Malaise Speech to get a sneak peek at the next SOTU address.....

 

I have service from both [name of gas utility here] and [name of electric utility here].

Several years ago, [gas utility] contacted me about a new program they were offering where the payments would be estimated up front, level over the season, then squared up at the end (in either party's favor). I didn't take it, because the usual lumpy cash flow wasn't bothering me, but it seemed like a pretty square deal.

A year or so later, [electric utility] decided they wanted in on that act, so they sent me an offer for their program, where I would pay a premium over the normal price to participate, the program would be terminated or reneged if any month's usage went 15% over what they estimated, and on any exit from the program, any total underpayment to them would be squared up, while any total overpayment would not be.

They must have figured "we bet our customers are familiar with the reasonable program from [gas utility], so they'll just think this is another offer like that, and sign it without reading it."

 

My oil company is a local family owned and operated energy source that has been in business for longer than I have been on Earth (since the Paleolithic era ) They have always treated their customers well and I expect that they will continue to do so. Their premium for a prebuy is small and they also offer protection for market volatility (if prices fall, follow the drop) for another small premium (we didn't buy the extra protect this year, buy had done so in the past). We try do use our best judgement in timing a prebuy and which year to buy price protection.

JeffD

 

Highest close was 36799.65 on January 4, so that makes it down 4.3k in not quite 2 months. Almost a 12% drop, somewhat past the 'correction' threshold of 10%. Certainly not a 'cliff' by any rational standard.

Be ready for more drop.

 

Yeah, read the small print. That's for sure. I have not had any problem with our oil company. They are very good at providing us with reliable delivery of heating oil when I order it. The only time we had a problem was when a delivery guy decided to take a shortcut route to pull the hose to the side of our house where the tank is. He climbed up the retainer wall and doing so stepped on our plastic storage tote and destroyed it. Also dragged hose over the flower beds where new shoots were just peeking up. Needless to say, we complained and got compensated.

Local business is becoming harder and harder to find nowadays. Our oil company had been bought out twice in the last 15 years. They used to be a local family-owned business, but I think it is now owned by a big energy corporation. I have not seen many changes in terms of customer care so far. We have been loyal customers for over a decade. Our account enjoys the discount which brings our price well below the published market spot rate. Our last fill-up in early Jan price was 2.8827/gal. Looking at the state record, that was at the low end of the state average, and lower than the reported low price for our region. I don't know what the lock-in price would have been if I elected that option in June. But I suspect it would have not been much saving, since I am almost sure that the lock-in price is based on the published market price not based on the loyal customer's discounted price. I am going to need another fill-up before the end of this heating season, but the worst of the winter is almost over now. Hey, we just had 40F temp yesterday, although it is now only 14F and forecasted low of -10F overnight. But as long as the day temp hit above 32F, I can safely keep the heating off during most of the days from now on. I can stretch the oil left in the tank now for as long as I need to.

 

@Trollbait Ahh. That's the reminder that always brings me back to needing help. See, I was always taught (in medicine) prevention is always better than a cure. Then the automotive people say a "knock" sensor makes it safe to detect knock to prevent knock. That's like saying eat all the high fat foods you want and once we notice the onset of heart disease we'll back off and you'll be okay...

REVVL V+ 5G ?

 

yeah, we used to do that when we first moved here in 2004. but shortly after, all those deals went away in the boston metrowest area, and there is now very little competition among suppliers.
they all compete on marketing gimmicks.