2023 Prime ?

"come back to haunt US"?

 

I mentioned the Corolla GR scheduled for arrival in North America this fall 2022 , on pg 1 of this thread in post #27 ...
It's a fully decked out gazoo racer with a 1.6 Liter turbo 3 cylinder. It's racing tuned, but that doesn't mean Toyota has to tune it that way if they decide to mate it with a motor in the future.
Apologies to the all EV enthusiasts in advance. but it appears to me there is little hope that enough people will be interested in reducing one spec of carbon footprints if that means giving up any convenience, much less what's considered necessities of life liberty and the pursuit of happiness. Even if that means it could eventually rot away for the majority, without it being mentioned or properly discussed.
My excitement regarding a smaller power plant that produces more torque using a smaller bore and less moving parts, is that it should also increase ICE thermal efficiency, possibly above the 40% current milestone.
If it's too little and too late for many, I can't do or say anything that could change their perspective and wouldn't necessarily want to either.
Whatever happens in 2023, is going to happen with or without me. My hopes are that 2023 will bring a greater understanding of the things that are most important to all, come hell and or high water and if it includes high waters whatever floats the boat.

 

This was the case before the pandemic and supply chain issues.

In addition to policies supporting plug ins, there is also the factor of fuel prices.

Yet, Tesla, with range and power, is one of the top sellers globally. In Europe, the Model 3 outsells the next EV almost 2 to 1. As a brand, VW might beat them, but Tesla is only starting to get Model Y's to Europe. The other top EV sellers there may be more pedestrian in performance, but they are an upgrade over their ICE siblings. The newer models have ranges to compete with Tesla.

The top selling BEV in China is a tiny city car with a top speed of, maybe, 62mph. It is incredibly cheap. It also wouldn't be street legal in the US. This could be said of other plug ins in top 15 lists for China. Others are performance models like Tesla. Number 2 seller is the Model 3, and the Model Y is also doing well.

Long ranges aren't as important in Europe; it is a small land area compared to the US. Commutes and driving distances there are also comparatively smaller than here. Most of the continent has good public transit, which makes car ownership less of a need. The same maybe true for China.

 

Directing attention away from mainstream by pointing out luxury & substandard offerings is that narrative.

There's simply no excuse why the basics of range (200-250 miles) and power (100-150 kW) and speed (0-60 under 8 seconds) are not considered ready for mainstream. All the complaining & whining is a blatant disregard for priorities, an excuse by enthusiasts to focus on want rather than need.

Reality, we have arrived but there is a resistance here to allowing the BEV niche to become normalized. That is only here in the US. In both China & Europe, attitudes are very different. Here, we know all too well a plug-in does not need to fulfill all requirements to be a practical vehicle for the household. The voice of enablers continues to undermine progress here, the consequences of which can no longer be denied.

 

The fact that the Model 3 can outsell the ID.3 and Zoe 2 to 1 makes it mainstream in Europe. If not for that demand, the bZ4X would be competing directly with it and the Y on price. That can't be waved off as a diversion.

Yes, many of the other offerings in Europe aren't as fast, but some of those models are also available here, without complaints of performance. Who is complaining about bZ4X's? I didn't see any with a quick search.

 

I just read this article published yesterday (all in Japanese).
プリウス11月末で生産終了か？　初代登場から早25年!!　ハイブリッドのパイオニアは新世代へ突入する - 自動車情報誌「ベストカー」

Here is AI translated version of the article linked above.
Will the production of the Prius end at the end of November? It's been 25 years since the first generation appeared! The hybrid pioneer enters a new generation - 自動車情報誌「ベストカー」BestCar


The journal is known for proprietary information sources and publishing sometimes speculative rumors. So, I would take it with a grain of salt. If anyone finds confirmatory information from more reliable sources, please update. According to the article, the current production of PP will end by Oct 31, and all other Gen4 Prius models production to end by Nov. 30. This means there will be no more Gen4 Prius and PP after that date, making the current 2022 models be the last Gen4 Prius.

The author speculates that the ALL NEW Gen5 productions to begin sometime around 1-2 months later, likely to be in Dec this year. Prediction is the ALL NEW Gen5 Prius will be announced by the end of Dec this year, and start selling (I think the author means in Japan) around the end of Jan 2023.

With already thin inventory on PP, I have a feeling there won't be much more 2022 PP to be allocated for those who are currently on the waiting list. And I have no idea if the 2023 model includes ALL NEW Prius Prime or not. The article says nothing about the new Prius PHV.

 

I don't think they can stop the production of the current year's model for months before they start the production of the next year's.

My guess was that 2023 Prius Prime will be a carryover to be announced circa August 15. Perhaps the non-plug-in 2023 Prius will be a redesign to be available in late 2022.

 

Great find, thanks for sharing (and translating!).

Same renderings we have seen before, but the new details of production end and new launch are encouraging. Though the author didn’t differentiate with the plug-in, I highly doubt they would skip a year like they did in 2016 and lose all the market momentum. Is it possible/likely the Prius will be exclusively plug-in going forward as some have speculated around here?

Also, those renders don’t look final, as they are missing things like fuel / charge doors, and some kind of handle to open the hatch, lol.

Anyway, exciting times and I look forward to some official news on my next car!

 

Toyota Secures Huge Lead in Solid-State Batteries To Release a Hybrid Vehicle | Torque News

Looks like it's going to be a Prius to have the first solid state battery. But...... The article also says it will be a "backup battery". Wait, what, sounds like they are replacing the last vestige of ICE cars, the 12V battery. I could be wrong and it could be a silly translation problem but let's go on. Let's review a few facts about the old lead-acid (be it AGM, wet cell, sealed, valve regulated) battery that still exists in almost every car today. These lists are not exhaustive but first the advantages.

1. Lead acid batteries are probably the best battery technology for holding a charge - the self discharge rate is ridiculously low
2. Lead acid batteries are probably the best battery technology for continuing to hold a high level of charge - in other words they can be subjected to continuous charging near 100% indefinitely - about the only issue is the electrolyte drying out. This also affects number 1 as well.
3. They can operate in a wide variety of operating temperatures
4. They can put out a great amount of power when needed
5. Arguably quite inexpensive

Now let's look at some of the downfalls

1. They don't like being left discharged --- at all
2. The level of discharge is always recommended to be kept above 50% even for deep-discharge batteries
3. Very heavy
4. Regular lead acid batteries can become very explosive, particularly wet cell
5. AGM batteries are the only lead based battery that can be used in a passenger compartment - if ventilated
6. and AGM batteries are very expensive compared to the rest of the lead based battery tech

Now we know from previous Toyota statements, that solid state batteries are available but very expensive, according to Toyota and others ( Toyota secures huge lead in solid-state battery patents - Nikkei Asia ), about 4 times what a like Lithium Ion battery costs. So what can Toyota gain by replacing the 12V lead acid with an expensive solid state battery? Well the solid state battery can handle the first 3 lead acid advantages rather easily and then take care of the disadvantages as well. But they can be made light and arguably in just about any shape and placed anywhere. It would still be a very expensive battery to replace but with a small battery Toyota, and their partner Panasonic, can gain valuable experience building a small battery and keep costs down somewhat. I'm assuming it would be a small battery but it could be made quite substantial and be used for other things.

 

Start small to limit cost while building capacity?

definitely seems sort of pointless if they are “that” expensive?

 

And maybe backup battery can be used to get around the NA requirements for the EV tax credit in The Inflation Reduction Act that was just signed into law today?

Backup battery has a bunch of connotations by itself. I'm also thinking about the battery they used for storing solar power from the international Prius Prime with solar panel. And nope it may not be for this market either.

 

Toyota has made comments about their solid state not being rugged enough for plug ins yet. Starting with hybrids would let them improve the technology before putting it in plug ins. It also means getting more cars on the road with a limited supply.

Back up could also mean the traction battery is split between solid state and a traditional chemistry, so the car can still move if the solid state fails.

 

I bet both the 2023 Prius and SSB articles are fake news by Japanese auto enthusiasts. LOL

 

Bestcarweb.jp has indicated that no more Prius are to be manufactured in anticipation of the next model.

トヨタがガソリンエンジンを整理へ サクラ＆eKクロスEV絶好調で他社はどう出る？　国内メーカー最新動向 9選 - 自動車情報誌「ベストカー」

Translation:
■ Toyota stops ordering the current Prius
　Toyota has stopped ordering the current Prius.

　The next model is scheduled to be launched at the end of this year, and there will be no models to sell for half a year until then.

　Production of the current model could not continue unless it complied with regulations on noise and exhaust emissions, and we had no choice but to stop taking orders six months before the full model change.

No indication if there will be a Prime although multiple different outlets have indicated there will be.

 

That's interesting... did something change with the regulatory rules? If so, this must have affected other current models as well?

Or poor very translation this is?

 

Probably a translation issue. Pretty sure it was Toyota's own "regulations" and probably the "Hino-gate" may have something to do with it for emissions. Efficiency and emissions are regularly cross translated as the same thing. Remember this is Google we're talking about.

 

The Google translation cannot be wrong.

My interpretation is that Toyota cannot continue any model year's production after mid-August (typical model-year production commencement) or a full year after the commencement without recertification with various agencies. Since they are late with the 2023 model year's redesign, they have stopped the production of 2022 Prius and 2022 Prius Prime (yes, and 2022 Prius Prime) altogether for good now.

This means that the last shipments of 2022 Prius and 2022 Prius Prime will arrive to the US around the end of August.

Assuming that the scoop is true and my interpretation is correct, the remaining question is:

Will the redesigned 2023 Prius Prime launch simultaneously with the resigned 2023 Prius early next year or will there be a one-year gap in the Prius Prime production?

 

Well, the question is moot now. Without the full tax credit and Toyota cashback incentives, the Prius Prime in any form is overpriced.

 

You are forgetting that the used models are even more overpriced, and trading in can still be a bargain.

 

That might be true in CA now but that was not the case elsewhere. And the used car market has already peaked now. It will be down trend from now on.