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Featured Toyota's thoughts on EV adoption

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by Mendel Leisk, Feb 1, 2023.

  1. Mendel Leisk

    Mendel Leisk Senior Member

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    Huh, I miss those days; didn’t realize it was a mandated standardization, but makes sense.
     
  2. dbstoo

    dbstoo Senior Member

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    QUOTE="bisco, post: 3324846, member: 5889"]giving tax incentives to hybrids will just prolong the use of fossil fuels.

    20 years is enough to realize that bridge has been crossed[/QUOTE]

    That sounds like it should be correct, but I don't think any particular bridge has been crossed. It's not a coincidence that 20 years is the life of a utility patent. Until recently, Toyota had a legal monopoly on the design that allowed them to deliver the Prius, a car that behaves like a normal sedan while qualifying for a SULEV rating and demonstrating outstanding miles per gallon. All that and outstanding reliability too!

    Now that the patents have retired (or about to retire) we are likely to see more car makers using the Toyota designs for electric steering and effective blending of regenerative braking with traditional brake systems.

    It would make sense for Toyota to maximize their investment in the expired patents by using those designs to establish Toyota as the most experienced in making hybrids across the whole spectrum of passenger vehicles. They can point to a large percentage of their hybrids that lasted for 15 years or more. All that while being more efficient and fewer emissions.

    What I like about the current Prime design is that it addresses the catalyst catch-22 by running without the ICE on short daily errands. Yes, the power plants that create the electricity it needs still create GHGs (Green house gasses), but that is identical to how it works the most popular BEV in the world. As a matter of fact, the most popular(and supposedly most efficient) BEV uses almost exactly the same amount of electricity per mile as the most efficient PHEV does.
     
  3. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    Do you really believe Toyota would want to extend the hybrid era by getting scientists and politicians backing, if they were actually going to have to compete in the marketplace?
     
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  4. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    If those sealed beams were still around, the fickle winds of styling, and real winds of aero forces, would have them behind clear plastic covers. That would still haze up and be pricey to replace. Some cars had such even back then.

    They would also cost more with continuing improvements being made to the light technology and weight reduction. Instead of LEDs in a custom housing today, it would be LEDs in a sealed beam unit, inside a custom housing.

    Those sealed beams still available today are cheap because they are made on aging production lines that have long since been paid off.
     
  5. Mendel Leisk

    Mendel Leisk Senior Member

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    Maybe one manufacturer would buck the trend, make that simple plastic cover around $10. Make it a bullet point in the sales brochure.

    Yeah, automotive fashion statement are pretty pricey these days.


    2022 Toyota Prius Prime Headlight (Left). Electrical, Lamps - 8118547801 - Genuine Toyota Part


    About 3 of the above headlights is neck-and-neck with the cost of our first car, an '81 Civic. Yeah I know, starting out take-home pay was under a grand in those days. The sealed beams were $20 then, lol.

    Addendum: to be fair, an actual dealership price knocks quite a bit off the suggested retail ($1644 USD), down to $1136 USD. But yeah, a bit of a jump from $20, CDN or USD lol.
     
    #105 Mendel Leisk, Feb 7, 2023
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2023
  6. dbstoo

    dbstoo Senior Member

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    Do you really believe that Toyota would want to abandon 25 years of research, experience making hybrids that are largely trouble free? Especially when they have production lines already set up to make the components needed to make full hybrid versions of every model car that they make? Since it takes the "competition" several years to ramp up to produce a new line of cars, Toyota will still have a lead.

    What's your reasoning for saying that they would not want to extend the hybrid era just because of competition?
     
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  7. mikefocke

    mikefocke Prius v Three 2012, Avalon 2011

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    I sure don't miss the mediocre light those standard sealed beams put out. And I'll testify to the hassle with dealing with plastic covers over the sealed beams or even halogen lights on several cars. There are whole industries devoted to polishes and replacement plastics and even whole headlight assemblies for older cars and even after replacement the new light fixtures are so much better. Automatic brights, adaptive in turns to light the edges, and just brighter and more controlled beams.
     
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  8. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    No, I don’t believe they want to abandon it, thus the hard polisci push.
    I don’t think the patent is going to be available in a way that other mfgs would be interested in, if at all
     
  9. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    The "science" and I use that term loosely is Toyota's chief scientist, but his analysis is based on an assumption we know toyota knows is false, that the world can not extract lithium faster. His expertise is in robotics and AI, not metal extraction. He did not analyze how much lithium is obtainable economically he picked a ridiculously low number and used it. The assumption that there is only enough lithium to produce one 100 kwh battery for every hundred cars, and you need this much in each EV. Or 800,000 BEVs/year based on last years world wide sales (tesla will produce more than that in the first 6 months of this year). Toyota says they want to produce 3.5 M/year in 2030 and is assuming they can do this on top of all the bevs the other car companies will be making. It doesn't even pass the smell test. He is assuming something that he knows is untrue to convince stake holders and governments to draw the wrong conclusion.

    https://thedriven.io/2023/02/03/utter-bollocks-energy-analyst-debunks-toyotas-scarce-lithium-hybrid-myth/

    IMHO the 3.5M is a reasonable goal. Today Toyota doesn't even have the battery supply chain to produce enough rav4 primes. It takes awhile. They admitted their current ev platform is not adequate and it will take some time to develop vehicles on a new one.

    A tesla long range battery in the top selling EVs 3/Y uses about $300 worth of lithium carbonate in each battery pack at today's prices. Goldman sachs is predicting enough new capacity is coming on line to drop that cost to about $100 per pack by the end of next year, but other analyst think other companies battery growth will outpace new mines and extraction pools so the price may go up to $500/pack. If you say it takes time to produce more lithium that is a solid statement, but that you can't produce more lithium or build new battery plants that toyota knows is wrong.

    Governments like japan want to get rid of the hybrid and force everything to be plug-in (BEV and PHEV) but toyota has been fighting this and was still pushing the ideas that hydrogen is the answer and no one wants BEVs last year.

    People will want to run on battery power, the problem is some countries incentize plug-ins so much that people that don't want a plug-in buy them and then don't charge. The BEVx concept was pretty much a failure. The problem is on cars like the original under 5 kwh prius prime where you didn't get many miles for the effort of charging. All current phevs either have more efficient engines or enough range to make charging make sense.
     
    #109 austingreen, Feb 7, 2023
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2023
  10. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Such a plastic cover would break as readily as the glass of a sealed beam. It will also haze up even faster. Good thing it's cheap, cause now it's a maintenance wear item;).

    Sealed beam to a modern headlight isn't a like comparison. The headlight a bulb, reflector, lens, and a frame that mounts it to the car. The sealed beam is the bulb, reflector, and lens. The frame that holds the sealed beam in place so it do its job is separate.

    When it comes to maintenance, that headlight just needs to be cleaned. A non-LED unit will be cheaper, but need replacement of burned out bulbs. Typical halogen ones are in the $15 to $30 range. When a sealed beam is out, the reflector and lens is replaced with the bulb. A hypothetical modern one will cost more just the bulb for those added parts. A LED sealed beam will need a more durable lens and tighter seal to support the bulb's life expectancy.

    The modern headlight is expensive to replace. So are more simple pieces of plastic on a car. Barring an accident, they shouldn't need replacing though. The sealed beam could be cheaper to replace in event of an a crash, but it costs more in maintenance because it has parts, the reflector and lens, that could be permanent parts. Replacing a bulb is like replacing the windshield wipers. Replacing a sealed beam is replacing the windshield along with the wipers.

    I thought he was saying Toyota was lobbying in support of hybrids because they don't have the means to directly compete with EVs.

    Nobody is forcing Toyota to abandon their hybrid investment. It is only in some sections of certain cities, that ICE cars are banned. They still have over 10 years to sell ICE cars in the markets going 100% ZEV. That's a good amount of time to profit of their hybrid tech. During that time, the amortization of the factory lines making hybrid components will mean they can sell their hybrids in markets that can't support EVs in market segments below luxury.

    Toyota is whining because they want to; profit off that investment longer, profit off their non-hybrid ICE vehicles, and they are behind the major competitors in BEV investment.
     
  11. dbstoo

    dbstoo Senior Member

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    Expired patents are available for free. They are supposed to be complete enough to allow a competitor to implement the invention. The patent documents are available for examination for the full life of the patent. There are also freely available samples of the way that the patent holder executed it's design. These samples are often reverse engineered. I would not be surprised to find that all the major auto makers have at some time torn down Toyota hybrids in their lab in preparation for expiration of the patents.

    There is an industry made up of companies that look for failed marketing attempts from 20 years ago. Once the essential patents expire they are free to reverse engineer the product and rebuild with new techniques and materials and then market it under another name. https://www.ippractice.ca/patent-and-trademark-statistics/expiring-patents/
     
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  12. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i don't doubt the legalities, but toyota is already paying some russian engineer for every hybrid they build.
    it might be complicated. plus patent designs aren't engineering documents allowing anyone with the equipment to build one.
    there has to be incentive because it's still a major investment of time and money. most mfgs see bevs as the easiest and quickest route to the future
     
  13. dbstoo

    dbstoo Senior Member

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    Oh NO! That makes it sound like there's only one plastic formulation in existence, and that it will quickly fail and haze up and crack.

    But how can we explain the millions and millions of cars that don't have any hazing of the tail lights, turn signals, backup lights or dome lights? I see that only the (presumably) deregulated hideously expensive clear headlight covers are fogging up.
     
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  14. Mendel Leisk

    Mendel Leisk Senior Member

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    Sub good ol' glass?
     
  15. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Not every plastic works for every application.

    Dome lights are protected from high speeds and UV.

    Tail lights are sheltered from high speed impacts. Front parking lights tend to be more sheltered than headlights. At the very least, they are smaller targets than headlights. None of these lights light up to illuminate a field of view. Maybe for a few yards of the bumper with back up lights. They light up to be seen by others.

    Headlights are 'on point' when the car is in motion. They need to with stand the impact of an occasional rock while speeding down a highway. They also have light up an area, without distortions, large enough to safely navigate at those speeds. Polycarbonate is used because it is very impact resistant, light weight, and crystal clear. It is susceptible to UV damage; the hazing. So it has a UV filtering film applied. Too much UV filtering, and it has a negative impact on the light passing through the lens from the bulb. Brighter bulbs use more energy and produce more heat.

    Maybe some other plastic surpasses the polycarbonate in one trait, but they are worse in another that makes them unsuitable for headlight use.

    Polycarbonate is used for other car lights, and they will haze up. Since they only need to be seen, more UV blocker can be used on them.

    A more suitable plastic won't help with the pricing of a part that is just for a single model. Sharing highly visible parts between models generally doesn't leave a good impression on buyers.
    Glass is heavier, and won't be cheap for the hardiness and those shapes.
     
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  16. dbstoo

    dbstoo Senior Member

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    That's odd. I buy Pepsi in a glass bottle for 75 cents, and get 10 cents back for recycling.

    The tempered glass 2 liter measuring cup in my cabinet was $6.
    Glass is really cheap. Using a blow mold, it's cheap to form into any headlight cover shape that you want.

    The polycarbonate cover that dropped the head light output by more than 50% is permanently fused to the headlight bucket, and they charge $300 for the headlight bucket on my 2002 Gen 1 Prius. GM charges even more than that for headlight replacement on a 2010 Cadillac and they fog up within 10 years too.

    I'm sure that they can make a laminated safety glass for much less than that.
     
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  17. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    I am pretty sure his patent expired. He patented microprocessor control of the TRW gear mechanism. It still pisses me off and I don't own a Toyota hybrid any longer.

    Bob Wilson
     
  18. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Dear lord, that's dumb.

    Polycarbonate is lighter than glass, cheaper than glass, more resistant to impact than safety glass, and easier to work with. Automakers switched to it from glass in the 1980's, because of glass's drawbacks. There have been improvements in glass in those 40 years, yet the automakers are still choosing the plastic.
     
  19. Tideland Prius

    Tideland Prius Moderator of the North
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    Wow.. here they've been closing gas stations. There's only one gas station downtown now.
     
  20. dbstoo

    dbstoo Senior Member

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    Why is that? I can think of many scenarios. Is there a government mandate to shut gas stations? Maybe there is a mandate to eliminate gas cars? A depression? Are they not needed any more because the majority of the cars are now PHEV? Are most people working from home during the pandemic?

    I could also say that there is only one gas station downtown where I live. But that downtown is only 3/4 mile long and two streets wide. The rest of the city's 11 gas stations are scattered around the periphery of the town, many of them near the on/off ramps of the 10 lane interstate freeways that border the town.