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Oceangate-gate....

Discussion in 'Fred's House of Pancakes' started by ETC(SS), Jun 21, 2023.

  1. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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  2. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    I'm seeing elsewhere that the Boeing 787 contains about 20 to 23 tons of carbon fiber, about twice the total mass (including titanium bulkheads and iron ballast) of Titan. Though much of that is in CF-reinforced composites, totaling up to even more mass.

    It looks like Titan had a CF cylinder inside diameter of 56", so the outside would have been about 66". The 787 fuselage appears to be about 227" in diameter, though I'm not sure it is quite cylindrical.
     
    #62 fuzzy1, Jun 24, 2023
    Last edited: Jun 24, 2023
  3. Hammersmith

    Hammersmith Senior Member

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    I'm a few days late for most of this, but a couple comments...

    1. Redundant surfacing mechanisms: Wouldn't have mattered in this case. When the pressure vessel failed, they were dead within 50 milliseconds. Not only were they crushed to nothingness(imagine the weight of one elephant per square inch), but they were incinerated at the same time by the heat of the implosion. Only after both of those, came the rebound explosion that scattered the remaining debris. Searching for a positive, it takes at least 100-500 milliseconds for the brain to register pain, so they literally didn't feel a thing.

    2. de Havilland Comet: Contrary to popular belief, the square windows were not the primary cause of the Comet's issues. They weren't even a secondary cause. Heck, they weren't even square. Much of the square window myth came from news agencies misunderstanding the official reports. One of the real primary failure points for the Comets were a pair of cutouts on the top of the plane for the ADF antennas. In the report, these were referred to as the "ADF Aerial Windows". It's likely the press saw this and misunderstood what was meant. While the cracks did promulgate through the cabin windows, they didn't originate there. Mentour Pilot on YouTube did a great deep dive on the Comet misunderstanding not too long ago on his second channel, Mentour Now!.

     
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  4. Leadfoot J. McCoalroller

    Leadfoot J. McCoalroller Senior Member

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    Did that submersible even have any penetrations of the pressure hull, apart from the front window? After all the corner-cutting I've read thus far, I'm ready to believe that the submersible had two air-gapped technical systems: one inside the hull and another one outside it, communicating via $3 bluetooth dongle.

    "See! We are geniuses! we eliminated all those pesky potential leaks! Now could somebody out there enter pairing code 84423 so we can surface?"
     
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  5. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    I'm keeping an open mind about this but agree its material characteristics remain an excellent research subject. One approach I'd heard about is to mix fibers with molten metal. The carbon fiber does not have to be held together with a polymer. For those worried about compression failure, the tensile strength of fibers can inhibit the deformation of impending compression displacement.

    Bob Wilson
     
  6. xliderider

    xliderider Senior Member

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  7. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    This likely won't play well in a courtroom:

    "Over cigars one night, Rush told Weissmann that he got the carbon fiber for the Titan’s hull at a big discount because it was past its shelf-life for use in airplanes, Weissmann said. But Rush reassured him it was safe."

    Local TV version: Previous passengers recall ill-fated Titan ...

    AP version: Previous Titan passengers recall ill-fated submersible: 'I 100% knew this was going to happen' | AP News

    Similar stories elsewhere indicate that it was scrapped from Boeing.
     
  8. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    I give their CEO credit for one thing:
    He had skin in the game.
    ALL of it.

    I was thinking that SOSUS data might have percolated to the surface by now, and indeed I did....hear....one person suggest that the Canoe-U alums didn't share data with the puddle pirates because they wanted the 5 days distraction.

    meh.

    I speculate that a small carbon-fibre vessel that undergoes a rapid unscheduled disassembly at 400 atmospheres will sound a little different than several thousands tonnes of steel being perhaps slightly more slowly rent by 50-60 atmospheres of pressure to people who may have been listening in.

    I further speculate that it's already noisy at large, old shipwreck sites at depth, and that something (else) going pop in the night might go unnoticed. The ocean is not a quiet place, and the Cold War dumped several nice person-tonnes of money into hardware and thinkware trying to figure out how sound propagates throughout the world's ocean(s.)

    Lastly, I do not usually ascribe malevolence to a disaster, or the management of a disaster when sheer incompetence is almost always the root cause.
    If we did hear something go crunch in the night, and we DID localize it to a famous 100+ year old wreck site, and also associated it with an "expedition" to that site, there would have STILL been a large scale search for survivors until you found solid evidence.
    Think: MH-370

    HOWEVER (COMMA!!!)

    There is a little, not-entirely unrelated history with news of an underwater disaster being a little slow to... surface.
    On May 27, 1968 families of USS Scorpion's crew anxiously waited at Pier 2 at Naval Station Norfolk for that boat's scheduled arrival.
    They waited some more.
    The submarine never appeared.
    54 years later there is still no small amount of seething anger among the family and friends of Scorpion's 99 crew members because of the ham-handed manner that my beloved Navy adopted to manage the resulting crisis.

    You see.....
    Scorpion SANK on 22 May....somewhere around 1330 EST (depending on what you mean by "sank.") about 5 days before she was supposed to dock in Norfolk. :unsure:
    We know WHERE she sank, and we know WHEN quite precisely, and still......after 54 years the USN is a little murky about when we knew what we know and why the boat was lost despite the near-continuous drip...drip...drip of 'facts' pointing to this theory and that theory.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Scorpion_(SSN-589)

    We may not EVER know.
    Submarines are usually somewhat safe as long as you remember that they AREN'T.
    It's sorta like parachuting or motorcycling.
    We regularly drilled for all manner of casualties that can result in the deployment of a submarine distress beacon, and every single submariner that I've ever known has had at least one go-to story of a 'no-shitter' that nearly lost them the boat.

    1968 was a bad year for submarines.

    Normally you might have one major submarine hull-loss incident every few years.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_submarine_and_submersible_incidents_since_2000

    In 1968...we had FOUR.
    Two of them are still really REALLY suspicious not so much because they sank, but WHY.
    The USN even commissioned? coorced? their top "special projects" scientist to come up with a torpedo explosion story that was so full of bovine excretions that it's been quietly replaced by the newer 'ship battery explosion' theory.

    SO.....or should I say SOSUS......

    Non-factor in this disaster.
    They would have still kept looking.
    They (dot.mil) would not have announced that they heard a 'transient' or short noise pulse that sounds like this or that.
     
    #68 ETC(SS), Jun 25, 2023
    Last edited: Jun 25, 2023
  9. jdenenberg

    jdenenberg EE Professor

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    Don't ignore fatigue failure. This sub had made multiple trips to extreme depth and the pressure cycles likely had weakened the hull.

    https://qr.ae/pyM2ZN

    JeffD
     
    #69 jdenenberg, Jun 25, 2023
    Last edited: Jun 25, 2023
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  10. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    I watched a YouTube video about the construction and it showed a linear wrap, not a cross weave wrap used for pressure vessels. One of my early mechanical engineering courses explained that a surface under stress, the force, exhibits a stronger strain at 45 degrees.

    There may have been other failure modes but there really needs to be a debris analysis. I look forward to one or more crash safety groups final report.

    Bob Wilson
     
  11. hkmb

    hkmb Senior Member

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  12. Georgina Rudkus

    Georgina Rudkus Senior Member

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    De Havilland pioneered the pressurized cabin jet airliner. Boeing learned from De Havilland's mistakes and developed the 707. The revised Comet was totally safe but could not compete with the 707. For many years, it was employed by the Royal Air Force as in the AWACS role as the Nimrod. The were retired and replaced i the 2010's.

    Twenty years earlier Boeing introduced the 247 and would not sell it to TWA. who commissioned Donald Douglas to eventually produce tle legendary DC 3, many of which are still flying today.

    It's not always best to be the first.
     
  13. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    111 years with no deaths? pretty good record
     
  14. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    I suppose it is the most visited deep ocean site.
     
  15. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    Science?
    Statistics?
     
  16. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Beebe Bathysphere seems to have begun non-military deep (>1000 m) ocean exploration in 1934. One could start with that. Add up all the person hours since, with no fatalities (I guess there were not) since. Until Stockton and friends got their final rush.

    What other wild explorations had that many initial person hours with no fatalities? Certainly not powered flight. This would be a basis for quantitative comparison. @bisco's claim was not such. Not to me. Hint was he said "pretty good" a phrase not typically used in quantitation.
     
  17. Leadfoot J. McCoalroller

    Leadfoot J. McCoalroller Senior Member

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    Deep sea tourism can possibly exist and expand, but safety can never be second to economics. Aviation already proved this.

    Stockton Rush, other than being a great name for a California AAA baseball team or maybe a particular batch of crystal meth, used an approach that was Lawnchair Larry-as-a-Service. Not even worth comparing to honest attempts.

    There's an old abandoned city bus in Alaska that attracted almost as many tourists to their ruin before it was removed.
     
  18. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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  19. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    There certainly have been other civilian deaths in the exploration submersible field. Just not at the Titanic. And maybe not seriously deep.

    The one I'm thinking of, but haven't yet tracked down, snagged on some wreckage back in the 20th Century. Two people in front survived when rescuers freed the vessel, but the two in back had passed from hypothermia.

    ======
    Found it:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johnson_Sea_Link_accident

    See also the Internet Wayback Machine to this now-offline page:
    https://oceangate.com/pdf/manned-sub-safety-statistics.pdf
    archived at:
    Wayback Machine

    upload_2023-6-26_18-19-40.png
     
    #79 fuzzy1, Jun 26, 2023
    Last edited: Jun 26, 2023
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  20. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    It doesn't have to be deep to be serious.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bar_(unit)
    It doesn't take many atmospheres to wreck even a wonderfully and fearfully made human body.
    Add a confined atmosphere, buoyancy, and a dash of cold to the mix, and even without weapons, electrical, propulsion and air problems you have a pretty good recipe for bad things to start happening.

    Submarines are safe...as long as you remember they're not.

    My first day in Submarine school, not long after they started making them out of something other than a barrel - a grizzled old IC chief walked up to the black (green) board and drew a line across the board near the top, announcing:
    "That's the surface of the ocean!"
    He drew another line across the board very near the first line saying:
    "That's crush depth!"
    (In more gentile settings they call it 'collapse' depth.)
    He drew another line near the bottom, saying:
    "That's the ocean bottom! And everything between HERE [pointing to the not-middle-line] and HERE [pointing to the bottom] is WHY you get sub pay! It's HAZARDOUS DUTY pay! Anybody who is not comfortable with that should leave NOW!"

    One person DID leave, but not voluntarily.
    A drug dog alerted on his car while they were walking up to the barracks to do a sweep. :unsure:
    We lost another 'candidate' after a psyche interview, I was told.

    We're LAND creatures!
    We may have come from the ocean, but any attempts to return to the sea without understanding it's dangers is not smart....in THIS century, and all the other ones.

    Play stupid games.
    Win stupid prizes.
     
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