Featured Letter to Biden from 4,000 US car dealers: Slow BEV production and distribution

They were yapping about it just today with timelines for the different batteries. Solid state breakthrough. Ready in 2028. I read it today anyway. It’s just cars, I try to keep that in mind. Four wheel wagons to sit in and roll to different places. Like go to the coal yard.

 

i always keep that in mind. it's a fun debate

 

It depends on what you consider growth. Will the EV become the next diesel car or hybrid car in terms of total adoption?

I mean, sure, there are now enough diesel pumps, but that doesn't mean everyone is moving to diesel for economic reasons even though there are potentially some advantages to diesel.

Currently there are regions where there are subjectively "enough" charging stations for EV owners to get to everywhere they need to go. But the way I see it, if EV's are to reduce and eventually eliminate air polution, then EV's only becoming a mere fraction of cars on the road doesn't solve the problem.

It's the future that I can't determine. What will happen in the long run? Will it happen soon enough? Is it really the right solution? I know a lot of people from and in Acapulco where that tropical storm became a category 5 hurricane in 24 hours. But it costs me more than what I pay for rent just to insure a used Tesla.

 

To be fair, I don’t believe your insurance price issues are Tesla specific. As I recall, you are currently paying more for.your vehicle than we do for our Model Y.

As for total hybrid adoption, that isn’t a lot to crow about.

 

I'm sure there are probably other $15,000 used cars that would cost me over $400 per month to insure. But there are a lot of $15,000 used cars that wouldn't cost me near that much (I know, that's what I own now and it's only $130). It just so happens that the used Teslas in that price range do cost me over $400 per month.

I'm not sure what you're paying for your Model Y. For my Avalon I'm finished paying a $10,000 loan (was close a little over $15,000 inicial price, with a little over $5,000 downpayment). The 5 year loan was about $180 per month. I pay about $200 per month in fuel. Insurance is $130 per month. IIRC, tags are less than $200 per year now. I do all my own oil, filter and spark plug changes. I've only taken it to a mechanic twice, once was for a recall and the other to have the brake system flushed properly since I don't have access to a Mongoose and a subscription to TIS. I'm on my 4th set of tires including the worn ones that came on the car. My last tire change was just over $1,000, so around $1,000 every 2.5 years for tires. I'm not sure how that compares to your Model Y.

For the fun of it I got quoted for insurance for a brand new Model Y. Progressive says it'll be $155 per month. If I put down $5,000 then it would be $796 per month, or "$488" per month with federal and state incentives and the "$6,000 fuel savings" if I qualified for the federal tax incentive (which I don't). So the more than "$488" payments and $155 insurance per month would be more for me than the $180 payments and $130 insurance per month I was paying until I paid off the Avalon this year.

 

who can predict the future, i'm not sure of your point?

 

My question is when will EV's really be cheaper or comparable to ICEV's? Will there be a day that the majority of car drivers drive EV's? Or are EV's going to be the next option that only a few people actually buy, kind of like manual transmissions?

 

are you asking me? who knows? does it really matter, it's too late for climate change, so we're all going to be toast in a few decades anyway

 

Apples and oranges I'm afraid.
I am sure we drive different amounts, have vastly different insurance baselines, and other requirements.
Insurance for our Model Y runs $120/month.
Fuel is about $5/month.
Tags are much more, but that is more of a state thing.
The car needs no oil changes, or spark plugs. We did have a recall, which was completed with an over the air update while the car was in our garage.
No tire changes yet, but we don't drive much.(22k miles so far).

But your insurance amazes me. Typically the more expensive the car, the costlier the insurance. Many other factors play a part as w1ell of course. But I don't think I have ever heard of a Tesla running $400/month

 

but i still want a toyota bev, and i don't want biden to slow down mandates

 

Ya, well I admittedly looked at quotes on a used Tesla for $15,000, and the only Teslas for that price are Model S's. So probably because the Model S is more luxurious explains the reason. Maybe when there are used Model 3's for cheap it will be much cheaper to insure one of those.

 

I don't see why. A $15k big car costs the same to replace as a $15k small car.
I think you need a new insurance company
Or, did it have a salvage title??

 

I got quotes from 3 different companies, and all were around the same price, all more than $400, some closer to $500.
No, it wasn't a salvage title.

Who knows why.

 

Maybe because a shopping cart size car won't damage other people/cars as badly as the land barges do?

 

I was thinking this and power.

I know from before that things that cause a car to accelerate faster, especially on poor terrain (such as AWD) also up the cost.

 

Sports/performance cars definitely ramp up the cost. If you were looking at a used performance model that would explain part of it.
In my experience, an 85kWh Model S costs less than A P85 Model S. It has more to do with the “Performance” qualifier than the capability of the car.

 

Even buying the same model car in a two-door versus four-door will raise rates in many instances.

 

I miss driving the ol' 1985 VW Golf. It was small, cute, fun to drive (especially with that 5-speed stick shift) and the insurance was only $60 per month. Then I jumped into a nice, newer Avalon (although not as cute nor as fun to drive) and suddenly I was paying over $180 per month.

But I think small, cheap and easy to fix, 4 door, 50hp, FWD, and only worth $600 was the perfect combination for cheap insurance. If only I could find an EV like that, and that also could do what I did in the Golf: fill the tank (diesel), drive 600 miles to the in-law's, drive around for a week (still on that same tank of diesel), then put fuel in it, then drive back those 600 miles back home.

 

China has the lead in the safer, cheaper Li-ion, LFP. That comes from decades of investment into it. Might also have the lead with sodium ion.

Likely talking about announcements of slowing some investments. Which might have more to do with interest rates and latest labor contracts than the EV market.

Not likely. If it does happen, prices will be high.

They also promised solid state demonstrators a couple years ago.

Percent of new car sales already have EV higher than those in the US.

For overall costs, a BEV is likely around that of a comparable ICE car now.

Don't forget the all aluminum body of the Model S. The costs to repair that are higher, which can be driven up by a lower local availability of shops able to do the work.

Slap research on a restaurant blender, and you can double or triple the price.

 

The problem is I don't aspire to a Tesla level of car, more like a Camry, Corolla or even a Nissan Versa level of car.

And sure, I could probably go get a used $5,000 Nissan Leaf. But I've done that before and I'm not doing that again because I need the car to actually go places.