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blackrock?

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Keep in mind- raw demographics says that in about 10 years the USA will have too many homes for its population. Sometimes an excess supply translates to low prices.

The trick is that I think we will see a good bit of housing stock become undesirable/unmaintainable/uninsurable in certain warm and low-lying regions, on a very similar time scale.

So there's a good shot at housing prices stalling or even falling- but it's going to be very unequal in terms of location.

 

Right now I guess I could move to Michigan and find an affordable house. I just don't know of any other reason. In 10 years I'll be 62. We'll see what happens I guess.

 

Ask your relatives if they felt the $60,000 was too much at the time. My dad thought anything over 10,000 was too much money. It usually has been jumping in at what can be safely handled with payments, and it’s considered a home not a stock investment, later on it’s paid for and the price has gone up. Prices will rise and fall but the home is still a home to live in with it slowly being paid off. A 15 year mortgage puts you at a normal retirement age with no house payments. Yes it seems tough to do and handle now. There could be a recession maybe then it becomes a better entry point.

 

in my 70 years of existence, housing prices have never fallen in desirable areas around here. they have flattened for a few short periods of time though.

 

we have state cap gains that have to be paid, even when under the fed limit. same with inheritance taxes

 

I know the answer. It was a good deal. Not too much. Low enough to handle. And they've paid it off and still live there.

Safely? I make enough here to afford a $120,000 home. I could have gotten into some government assisted, deed restricted, housing a year or so ago for $200,000, but I didn't make enough, and that's working full time in the same job for the past 15 years. I could go find another job that with time will pay more, but I'd probably have to start at minimum wage.

That means I need a house now if I want to have it paid off by retirement. On the other hand, if I could just lock in a fixed payment, that would be great too. You never know what rent will do. It has doubled and tripled, sometimes more, since COVID.

 

I wrote safely just because this is an internet forum and all. Jumping in may require not complete safety, but more or less safely. People jump in and lose their houses thinking they could stick to a planned budget but don’t. Of course rent is 100% not paying off anything, as you know. Plus the uncertainty in many ways. A mortgage can almost always be had, at a price. A lot of these house flippers are out there with high interest rates and in this good market have been saved by the demand and prices.

 

The thing is, if mortgages in my area are over 100% of my income, then no, the mortgage cannot be had. And if it's more than some 30 to 50% of my income, then it will be necessary to count on renting out rooms to make it work. And there's always the chance that the market flips and then you end up loosing those necessary renters. A $120,000 mortgage works out to around 25% of my income including all taxes, HOA fees, insurance, etc. So if the cheapest homes are around 3 times that, that's about 75% of my income. I guess I could work 2 full time jobs.

 

I know a number of people who are completely exasperated by the housing costs. Single people with children, etc. I guess I was trying to give a pep talk. Don’t give up I guess it is.

 

Lest we forget & it was previously brought up - affordability is w/in reach via roomies. Getting roommates has gone on for probably a century or more. Remember the 1951 sci-fi clasic, "The Day the Earth Stood still"? Where the human looking alien Klaatu escaped from the US Army & hid out in a boarding house?
Or do we now think our deflated dollar should still buy what it used to buy in 1970 - a 3 bedroom in Suburbia.