"Hundred year <weather>"

I agree that posts #30 and #33 did not seem to use the word 'believer' in the same sense.

#30 seemed to be using 'believer' in the sense of a sort of exact behavioral complement of 'denier' ... or what sometimes in other places might be called a 'troo beleever'.

#33 seemed to use 'believer' in the sense of someone who, in the usual way of such things, has become persuaded by the evidence and believes the proposition at the moment.

Neither usage of the word 'believer' is wrong, and both kinds of person exist, but they are different usages and different kinds of person, so having the same word used both ways in a series of posts does make a discussion harder to follow.

~~~

It's even possible for one person to mix senses of the same word in making a single argument, like

Nothing is better than ma po tofu.
Stale bread is better than nothing.
∴ (by transitivity) stale bread is better than ma po tofu.
​

When that happens, it's one of the classic named fallacies (equivocation), and when done on purpose, it is deliberate dishonesty.

But when it's just a word getting used in different senses by different people in a discussion thread, sometimes it's just a matter of not reading each others' posts quite carefully enough.

 

Getting way too deep for me, I think I'll swim for the shore before I drown. I'll leave you to it .... can't even remember what the topic was ..... something about 100yrs seems to pass a quicker these days .....

T1 Terry

 

A unicorn.
Everybody knows what they are.
Nobody has ever seen one.

 

That's funny - I got a kick out of that.

Certainly not my experience.

Unicorns must be real then - I find that most people where we live would be classified as Unicorns based on your post.

Effective two-way communication demands - active listening and empathy - without that you're not really effectively two-way communicating.

Shooting your mouth off while not listening is generally not considered communication in social circumstances.
(not accusing anyone of doing that just defining a different type of communication style)

... and yes I have experienced different styles of communication - I was in the US Service during the draft and Vietnam War and am very familiar with direct one-way communication, like:
- " get your as_ in line Airman and keep your _ _ _ _ _ _ _ mouth shut"!
There is also a time and place for different types of communication.

 

Everyone has something interesting to say, even if it is only interesting to the person that is saying it

T1 Terry

 

Maybe I'm just overly jaded by my experience as an operational meteorologist with the National Weather Service (BRO, JKL, and MRX offices). I've seen too many times models and model ensembles utterly fail after just a few days out. I retired in 2012, and models continue to improve, but following them since my retirement has not left me any more impressed, so far anyway. IMHO, the models are still fundamentally incapable of projecting atmospheric conditions decades in the future, even on the global areal scale. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and climate models have different uses, but they're fundamentally similar, using the same basic equations of motion and other dynamic processes.

On top of that, the latest version of the IPCC report (AR6, Working Group 1) has only "low confidence" for all current "extreme weather" trends except frequency and intensity of heat waves. The IPCC reviews THOUSANDS of reports and peer-reviewed papers in the scientific literature to assess the current state-of-the-science. In most cases, the signal noise is just too great to establish with any certainty trends beyond natural variability.

Using the pejorative "denier" seems extreme with such high levels of uncertainty we're currently faced with.

 

I know. I did work at offices that were chronically understaffed, which makes everything more difficult. In my opinion, met intern positions shouldn't be cut since it takes quite a while before a recent met grad is competent enough to work an operational shift.

How does Skeptical Science explain how boundary conditions are handled for the regional models? For synoptic NWP models like the WRF/NAM model, boundary conditions were established by global NWP models like GFS, so there was still reliance on the global models.

Are the regional climate models hydrostatic of nonhydrostatic? In the case of most NWP models, they're hydrostatic which means that the vertical motions have to be parameterized. Most sub-grid-scale meteorological processes also have to be parametrized. I'm not sure if we can have much confidence in whether those parameterizations are valid in conditions which have not previously been encountered.

MRX is an adjacent office to NWS Huntsville. The models appear to be over-forecasting the coverage of the diurnal pulse storms and have been for most of the past month.

I agree. I don't think cloud seeding have any significant impact on the Central Texas flooding event (s).

 

I agree th

I believe that we need to transition away from carbon-emitting energy sources, but we don't need to induce hysteria to do it. We are already making great progress in that direction, and I'm sure that a few decades hence will put us where we want to be.

Is that too long to wait? Not at all. Climate change is progressing slower than expected in many ways. Nations worried about being inundated by ocean level rise are still high and dry. Remember the prediction that the Arctic would be ice-free by 2013? It still hasn't happened.

Not to dismiss or deny the problem, but has anyone done a cost-benefit analysis of global warming? It would be a boon to large swaths of the northern latitudes, opening up new avenues of habitation and agricultural production. The tropics will suffer, but that's the cost side of the equation. Good work is being done to halt desertification and reclaiming agricultural lands.

Just something to think about.

 

I think Skeptical Science probably focused on the CMIP5 model suite, which consisted of 35 model ensemble. IIRC, that was the basis of the IPCC AR5 along with other model ensembles. AR5 mentioned that 111 of 114 ensemble members overestimated the global temperature average at that time. I don't remember which surface temp profile was used; I'm right behind you in age and my memory isn't as good as it used to be either. At any rate, CMIP5 wasn't a great success with respect to temperature projections. CMIP6 is supposed to be a significant improvement to CMIP5.

I conducted an ensemble model study at MRX in 2003 if you're interested - A Comparison of MEX Guidance vs. Ensemble-based Temperature Forecasts This was a local MRX study using our forecast points, but the mean absolute error was nearly 6 degrees F at day 7, even using the ensembles. Of course, this was using models/ensembles from several generations ago, but it's my understanding that current NWP model MAE is still about 5 degrees F at day 7. Hence my skepticism of climate models' ability to project global temperatures decades in the future.

 

I've heard a lot about island nations being threatened by ocean rise, but I don't recall any populations being displaced, so far.

Surely we haven't forgotten already, that Al Gore predicted an an ice-free Arctic by 2013.

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/fact-check/al-gore-did-not-predict-ice-caps-melting-by-2013-but-misrepresented-data-idUSL1N2RV0K6/

 

So, one error, and my whole opinion is out to lunch.
Gottit.

 

I wasn't commenting on your opinion so much as just supplementing the lack of links in your post so there would be a way to discuss it.

 

I guess these people are just climate activists. https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/nasa-analysis-shows-irreversible-sea-level-rise-for-pacific-islands/ They might have been smart enough to put a man on the moon, or a space station circling the earth, but what would they know about anything .....

A lot of the Texas population was displaced very recently, a lot more of China's population and their livelihoods just got washed out to sea, but climate change didn't cause any of that, did it ..... what was it .... cloud seeding or space lasers or something Have you looked up any information on how the "Dooms Day Glacier" is fairing .... or that is fake news or something .....

T1 Terry

 

Have to keep these things straight. Cloud seeding for the flooding, Jewish space lasers for the wildfires.