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Nat. gas, propane, diesel, or gasoline backup generators are orders of magnitudes cheaper to install and maintain. That's assuming you know how to wrench. They do require fuel, but solar panels won't work in a snow storm or in the dark either; whereas generators will work as long as there's fuel.
A BEV or power wall can bridge the gap in those instances, but we're talking extra $$$$$.

 

My CFO has us on a crash savings programme for a new roof.
It will probably be most of $20k all done.
SO.....will it 'pay for itself?'
Yes and No.

AFTER THAT, my intentions are to install a DIY grid-tie or off grid PEV system.
I'm leaning towards a roof mounted, grid-tie with a modest Lifepo4 backup.
If you DIY a solar install it's scalable and MUCH MORE affordable.

Will it ever pay for itself?

HECK NO!
NO WAY!!
I will lose the investment potential of up to $10,000 for the privilege of saving a few bucks off of my electric bill.

Example:
From 1950 to 2023, the S&P 500 yielded an annualized average return of 11.34% just to pick ONE index.
According to the Googles An investment of $10,000 earning a consistent 11% annual return over 30 years, with the earnings compounded, would grow to approximately $228,513.80.
EVEN AT 5% After 30 years, a $10,000 investment would be worth $43,219.42 with annual compound interest - which would not even provide for a 'break-even' given the most wildly optimistic "solar savings' after 30 years.

I picked '30 years' because this what the EVangelists and sun worshipers always use for their so-called "ROI" which is a misleading if not a scandalously criminal term for a solar system.

It's not an investment!!
Solar is an EXPENSE - and just like my roof your best outcome is that in the end it will "suck less."

 

The 30 year projection doesn't take into account panel degradation and dirt (if you don't climb up there to clean them) and has a optimistic view of it's output - assuming no cloudy days and direct exposure.
While the price has come down over the years; how will removal of clean energy incentives, tariffs, and increase labor cost affect future cost?

As a side note: Very few jobs now-a-days offers pension benefits. 401K's is NOT a pension - When you run out of money there - there ain't no-more....... Pensions will payout as long as your alive and breathing - that's the BIG difference. While you were suck in low paying jobs early in life, your now reaping the benefits

Well done.......

 

That's close to the "nominal total return (with dividends reinvested), annualized" number that I get on this calculator for January 1950 to January 2023. Comes out 11.18%.

Maybe you chose different months? If I pick January 1950 and December 2023 (1950 through 2023) I get 11.31%, getting closer.

Looking at shorter periods, there have been some that were a little rough. This article gives some nice graphical summaries of 10 year, 20 year, and 30 year periods over time:

Deconstructing 10, 20 & 30 Year Stock Market Returns - A Wealth of Common Sense

The opportunity cost of the solar capital outlay is certainly a sensible thing to look at. Ideally, the foregone investment returns would be compared to expected investment returns on the avoided utility charges. I don't know whether the typical "solar ROI" calculations do or don't include that.

Once the solar system is operating, its returns—while quite volatile on hourly, daily, weekly, seasonal scales—may be less volatile than stocks over short multi-year scales, and to a person with lower risk tolerance that may be worth something.

 

Recent technology that allows NG to be exported anywhere in the world combined with The BBB rule changes allow for unlimited amounts of NG to be exported.

Because our market and the rules surrounding it have been eroded and we are subsidizing the power and water for data centers. I would expect the cost of natural gas to skyrocket exponentially in the next 2-5 years and with it domestically produced electricity will also become extraordinarily expensive since gas peakers will no longer be viable.

Due to the upcoming destruction of our current energy markets it might actually be financially prudent to be fully off grid before that happens.

A data center is being planned nearby my apartment and apparently the area is bulking up water systems, my bill due to these supposed infrastructure investments went from 65/quarter to $75 a month.

I fully expect my already ideotic fixed base fees and taxes on utilities to start tripling once the thing goes online.

keep your eyes open folks, lots of stupid incoming.

 

I just look at it as pre-paid utility cost up front. Anyone can imagine anything; much like a palm-, tea-leaf-, or crystal ball- reader.
If utility cost spike; maybe solar would hit it's breakeven point in a more reasonable 5-10 years time frame. I just believe that a 30 year projection is a pipe-dream that has a very low likely-hood of coming to fruition. How many twist and turns have you encounter over the past 30 years? This doesn't even take into account the advancement of technological changes.

YMMV

I do agree with you; there is a lot of stupid coming....

 

Our system cost about $37,000 after tax credits, and is delivering very close to the anticipated $3,300 worth of electricity per year.

And utility prices aren't going down.

Meanwhile, another array I helped my father install at his house in Massachusetts in 1986 is still producing power- output degraded maybe 20% since new.

 

That's 11.21 year breakeven point. Most utilities are now charging a connection/infrastructure fee that can't be waived. So after about 12 years, you'll be saving money.

 

At present prices yes. I have a pretty strong feeling we will get there sooner.

 

I bought a lifetime fishing license in my late 30's early 40's. Did the math back then; it was a 25 year breakeven point. Regretted it for the first 5-years, when an annual license was $25 and change. It's now just shy of $62 annually; so my breakeven shrank to a little more than 10-years - which is what I'm comfortable with. Long enough so I see some sort of ROI - 30-years for me would be pushing it..........

FWIW; My electricity bill is hovering around $100/month - there's no-way I can make the math work on that, even recharging my Prime every evening!!!

 

If I did my math right, $37,000 invested 30 years at expected 11.18% annualized return grows to $889,204.83, and a 30-year sequence of $3,300 invested at 11.18% grows to $679852.04.

Of course I've left out all kinds of complications.

 

My electricity prices over the last 11 years have been fairly steady - currently staying about $1440 a year, all in.
Unless I want of go off-grid, I will STILL have to pay a month connection fee that may or may not be offset by net metering.
EVEN IF the WAF was >1 for that many panels they would not fit on my roof!

I do not complain about this because: PSC - meaning Public Service Commission.
The Co-Op has to give me hot copper or provide dot.gov a reason why they cannot.
24/7/365.
I also do not complain about road and school taxes, garbage pickup or city water - because they are a public good.
Even if I don't drink the water.

SO......
There's simply NO WAY that I can COST justly solar in my area.
Like I said.
8th grade math.....


HOWEVER (comma!) my intentions are to do it anyway.
Not for savings.
Not because I'm being influenced by the climate industrial complex.
Not because I'm a crazy doomsday prepper.

BECUASE it's an arrow in my quiver for power disruptions and natural disasters and the possibility that I or someone in my orbit might be susceptible to health issues that would be exacerbated by turning the 'way-back machine' to the 1890s.
For the same reason my intentions are to get a Starlink system when the $80 residential lite plan is available in my area - EVEN THOUGH I get nearly free service through Big Bell for being a valued employee.

The BEST time to have put solar on my house was when I bought it.
The SECOND best time is today.

It's a TOOL that will cost me money.
I don't fool myself into thinking that there's any way it will "save me money, because if the markets collapses and the math DOES work out, the LAST THING you're going to need is a bunch of solar panels.....

 

Turns on whether you are using a system for charging one or multiple plugins - & how much the utility company charges you per kwh.
Take poorly managed rip-off prices in socal. Our Solar paid for itself in under 7 years because that was overpriced gasoline we weren't purchasing, as well as not getting charged for electricity anymore. The bill prior to solar (90s) averaged around $150 a month just for electricity. And the fuel that we were not buying anymore ($100s/month)? We were having to pay income tax on the money that would have be necessary to pay for gas. Bottom line lots of variables. As for warranty? Most systems have 80% warranty still available after a 30 year warranty, to the original owner, of course most people live less than 15 years in a house until they hit retirement age. Then there's those constant utility prices raised - permission to charge more from the local Commission. That usually ends up being 5 to 8% per year in some areas. That's better than if your solar costs were in Banks.

 

There's never been a less competent president in the Whitehouse. Not only stupid, but he is incapable of admitting a mistake.

 

I've always had two cars after getting married. That way if one is down for maintenance, we have the other for work, food, and appointments. Having two EVs makes a lot of sense so you can charge one while driving the other. You also have redundancy if one is down for maintenance.

Bob Wilson

 

He hasn't made us buy out or invade Alberta so he shouldn't be living rent-free in your head.
Besides.....we ALREADY HAVE California, so we're doing our bit to support and help pay for global socialism.

 

Like Joe Biden (or any Democratic President) lives in yours? <grins>

Bob Wilson

 

few say so....

 

A PV array can't easily match the return of a direct investment, but it sure does feel good. And, as you've written, the savings can produce a useful return on top of the other benefits.

 

Dumbest comment I ever read.