Featured Motor-oil shortage on the horizon

I asked Google AI what a disruption in the Persian Gulf oil supply would mean for the plastic supply chain:

A significant plastic shortage and price surge would occur if oil imports from the Persian Gulf were disrupted. The conflict impacts crucial petrochemical feedstock supplies, specifically naphtha, which is essential for producing plastics. The disruption threatens the global plastic industry, especially in Asia and Europe, leading to higher costs for polymers, as well as the potential for panic buying and production slowdowns. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8]
Key Impacts of a Persian Gulf Disruption:

• Feedstock Shortages: The Strait of Hormuz is a critical passage for petrochemical exports. A disruption cuts off the supply of oil-derived ingredients (naphtha, ethane) required to make plastic resins.
• Severe Plastic Shortages: Over 30% of global polyethylene and polypropylene trade is affected, as much of this production depends on the area.
• Surging Prices and Production Halts: Manufacturers are seeing double-digit price increases in raw materials, leading to the idlings of plants and the declaration of force majeure (unable to meet contract obligations).
• Global Supply Chain Impact: The shortages of plastic products are affecting various industries, including packaging, medical, and consumer goods. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7]

Specific Findings on the Impact:

• Regional Vulnerability: Countries like South Korea and Japan are particularly at risk, as they import a high percentage of their naphtha from the Gulf.
• Manufacturing Disruption: China, the world's largest producer and exporter of plastic products, has already reported rising oil-linked costs, increased plastic prices, and panic buying.
• Long-term Effects: Experts suggest that a disruption could take 12 to 18 months for petrochemical supplies to fully recover. [1, 2, 3]

Note: The information above reflects a high-risk scenario linked to current geopolitical tensions and disruptions, specifically the conflict involving Iran, which has demonstrated the vulnerability of these supply chains. [1, 2]

 

And that's why we filled our 2 gas Jerry cans & 4 diesel Jerry cans months ago. Same with buying oil & filters for the upcoming changes in the plugin minivan & pickup truck. Same w/ our 2 100Lb propane tanks. Why get caught with your cargo shorts down around your ankles?

 

glad we have an ev, and a hybrid that rarely needs oil changes

 

AI response to where most synthetic motor oil still comes from:

The overwhelming majority of synthetic motor oil is derived from crude oil, while a smaller, growing portion is produced from natural gas. While some brands like Pennzoil use natural gas through Gas-to-Liquid (GTL) technology to create a 99.5% impurity-free base oil, most synthetic lubricants on the market still use highly refined crude oil (Group III base stocks). [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]

• Crude Oil (Majority): Most "full synthetic" oils are created by chemically modifying crude oil components to create high-performance base stocks.
• Natural Gas (Significant Minority): Natural gas is used in GTL (Gas-to-Liquid) processing, which converts gas into pure liquid molecules. Pennzoil is a prominent user of this technology.
• Performance: Both sources allow manufacturers to create superior oil compared to conventional options, featuring higher shear stability and fewer impurities. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]

Note: While some companies highlight natural gas as a superior feedstock, the, overwhelming majority of synthetic oil globally still relies on crude oil as its base source. [1, 2]

 

You also can't call what the US synthetic oil synthetic in Europe.

Residents in North America likely aren't likely going to have to worry about motor oil shortages because of that. Oil filters because of tariffs seem a bigger concern.

 

Mobil 1 0W-30 is still $25 for a 5 quart jug at Wally World......

 

0W-20 wasn't bad at the dealer today.

 

It was the oil filter shelves that were empty in Wal-mart. Had to splurge for a Mobil1 filter last week.

Which doesn't change the fact that the loss of GTL motor oil production will only impact a small portion of availability in the market.

 

I bought two 5-qt bottles of Costco 0W-20 for $35.75 yesterday. There was plenty of stock on the shelf, in that and other common grades.

I already had a little more than two oil changes worth sitting on the shelf, so I have a little bit deeper of a buffer now.

Since I had the day off and the car was due for maintenance anyway, I did an oil change, and changed the cabin air filter myself. Then I drove around to the neighborhood fixaflat and paid them $20 to rotate the tires for me.

 

The base chemistry for plastic becoming expensive might make hydro cracking plastics back into hydrocarbon feedstocks economically viable, which would make junk plastic have value enough that we sort of recycle it or make fuel from it.

 

It's the same situation here with my local Walmart.

Even the people who have money and are generally well off are buying budget options like Super Tech.

 

This didn't help with the shortage of oil filters.
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That also explains the color change in Subaru OEM filters.

 

Interesting... I haven't bought filters in a year, hadn't noticed this yet. Still got a few on the shelf.