Any chance oil will be $200 a barrell in 4 years?

With McCain, yes and very soon, with anyone else, possibly, but later.

 

No, it will be higher !!!

 

duh

 

Any chance? Sure! A pretty good chance. But not guaranteed. That would be a doubling in price every 2 years. It might take longer. All depends on supply, demand, and how much gouging the oil producers can get away with. I gather that gas prices track oil prices fairly well, so $400 oil should mean around $12.50 per gallon gas. Assuming a doubling in electricity prices in the same period I'll be paying 4 cents a mile to drive my Xebra.

 

What is solar D??? I'm on the dry side of WA. We get some sun and some cloud. However I am not able to install photovoltaic cells on my house.

 

You think a barrel of oil will drop down to $200.00 in 4 years? We'll probably wish.

 

Oops! I misread the thread title as $400 oil in 4 years. I think it very unlikely that oil will be as cheap as $200 in 4 years.

 

so that wil mean about 6 euro a liter

if i have to pay that i really don't think i drive anymore.
so don't think it wil be that high
and if it is then we wil be seeing some serieus problems in Europe
and car makers building alternative fuels soon!

 

It all depends on what happens to demand in developing nations and poor countries like the US. Demand at the bottom end will tail off pretty severely I would think, which will ease demand. At $400/barrel I don't see the global economy doing very well. That will lead to a sharp decrease in demand and the price will fall. It also depends on what production is capable of providing. That's sort tough to call. It doesn't look like it can go much higher though.

 

i think thats a major possibility.

 

Everytime I see or hear something like this I hear numbers thrown out, and comments made like I'll never pay more then $3 a gallon for gas. But inevitably gas becomes $3.29 like today and the yuppy soccer moms with the Expeditions and Yukons bend over and take it proudly. I almost think that some people still drive those vehicles daily just because people think they are wealthy because they can afford to spend the $80 a week to fill it up.

 

As long as there is racing on the freeways, the price is not that high.

 

Easily. Remember, you can still get gas for less than some pay for bottled water. Also, the value of currency determines the commodity price. If we continue to devalue the dollar to pay off our massive debt, $200 in a couple of years will buy the same amount of bread, milk, toilet paper, etc. that $100 does today. Maybe we should start tracking oil prices by gold to get an actually feel for the rise in it's cost. How much gold did it take to buy a barrel of oil in 1990? 2000? Today? In 2010? Today, it's about a tenth on an ounce of gold for a barrel. I'd predict that a tenth of an ounce of gold will buy a half a barrel in 2 more years, barring a worldwide depression. I don't think demand destruction can stop the rise this time.

 

just wondering

this can mean a big really! big problem for the western economie and lifestyle

and then the terrorist have won! because the western economie where al the trouble is about from the fundamental moslims is gone!

 

Might not be a bad thing.

Think of how Indians will lose their jobs because outsourcing is too expensive and more "white collar" work will return to US. And probably those jobs that was originated in India.

And Chinese manufacturing plants will be closed to be opened to the US. And US plants will create lead based toys for Chinese kids.

ound:

 

Just remember what Osama Bin Laden's war plan was, stated by him, muslims can never beat the US militarily, but they can bog down the US and defeat it ECONOMICALLY. Osama could not have had a better Number 2 than George W. Bush.

And while the US pays and pays for Iraq, guess what Iraq has, go ahead, guess.

Auditors: Iraq faces budget surplus
By ANNE FLAHERTY, Associated Press Writer
Tue Mar 11, 2:12 PM ET
Iraq isn't spending much of its own money, despite soaring oil revenues that are pushing the country toward a massive budget surplus, auditors told Congress on Tuesday.

The expected surplus comes as the U.S. continues to invest billions of dollars in rebuilding Iraq and faces a financial squeeze domestically because of record oil prices.

"The Iraqis have a budget surplus," said U.S. Comptroller General David Walker. "We have a huge budget deficit. . . . One of the questions is who should be paying."

Walker and the other auditors did not give a figure as to the likely surplus. U.S. officials contend that Iraq's lack of spending is due primarily to Baghdad's inability to determine where its money is needed most and how to allocate it efficiently. Two senators have called for an investigation into the matter.

Democrats say the assessment is proof that the Iraq war as a waste of time and money. The U.S. has spent more than $45 billion on rebuilding Iraq. And while officials in Iraq contend that much progress is being made, many projects remain unfinished and U.S. troops are still needed to provide security.

"They ought to be able to use some of their oil to pay for their own costs and not keep sending the bill to the United States," said Sen. Patrick Leahy, D-Vt.

In recent months, Iraq experienced its highest oil production and export levels since the war began five years ago, said Stuart Bowen, special inspector general for Iraq reconstruction.

That spike in revenue combined with the highest oil prices in history, "coalesce into an enormous revenue windfall for the Iraqi government," Bowen told the Senate Appropriations Committee.

Whereas Iraqi officials estimated $35 billion in oil revenues last fall, Bowen said the final number is likely to be closer to $60 billion.

"That certainly gives them resources to carry forward with an extensive reconstruction plan," Bowen said.

But according to other U.S. officials, a major problem is that Iraq does not have the capacity to allocate the money without it being wasted or pocketed by corrupt officials.

"I think they are beginning to do more," particularly in improving its military and buying new weapon systems, said Claude Kicklighter, the Pentagon's inspector general. "And I think that's certainly the trend that we should be following."

The Government Accountability Office estimates that the U.S. has designated $6 billion to rebuild Iraq's energy sector and $300 million to develop Iraq's government ministries. But GAO contends that the U.S. doesn't have a strategic plan on how to accomplish either goal.

The State Department told investigators it believes the Iraqis should be responsible for devising such a plan. GAO disagreed.

"In our view, it's a shared responsibility. U.S. taxpayer money is involved," Walker said.

Last week, Sens. Carl Levin, D-Mich., and John Warner, R-Va., asked GAO to investigate what Iraq is doing with its oil revenue. The senators estimated that Iraq will realize "at least $100 billion in oil revenues in 2007 and 2008."

 

oil, the new gold standard

 

We'll be lucky if it's that cheap in four years.