Hymotion Plug-in a123 battery pack available for consumer purchase

Every rational investment you make embodies some explicit or implicit prediction. If you choose to hold dollars, you're predicting they will hold their value better than other assets. If you invest rationally, there's no such thing as not making a prediction about the future course of asset prices. It doesn't have to been a pinpoint prediction. It's more a question of judging the odds.

Here's what Warren Buffet said last month, as cited by CNN:

Warren Buffett at annual Berkshire meeting: Think small - May. 3, 2008

"We are happy to invest in businesses that earn their money in euros in France or Italy or sterling in the UK, because I don't have a feeling that those currencies are likely to depreciate against the dollar," said Buffett. "Overall I think that the U.S. continues to follow policies that will make the dollar weaken against other major currencies.... I feel no need to hedge purchases of companies that earn profits in other currencies." Buffett added that major U.S. multinationals, like Coca-Cola (KO, Fortune 500), are a natural hedge against the dollar, since they earn most of their profits offshore -- which, he said, "will be a net plus over time."

So, if I'm wrong at least I'm in good company.

Here's the Dollar versus Euro, last four years. Blip at the right edge is the recent rally (long overdue, imho, but unclear as to whether it indicates any change in fundamentals, again imho).



Here's the US balance of payments data:



Here's the US private savings rate:



Net US indebtedness to foreigners:






My personal favorite, domestically, is that projected cost of Social Security and Medicare, from the Trustees of those Medicare and Social Security trust funds. (Although, of course, on that time scale, the Medicare number is just speculation):




So, no one can predict the future accurately, but the need to save and invest means you have to make some explicit or implicit predictions. Given the facts on the table, at this time, I'd rather have more real goods and fewer dollar-denominate paper assets. Because I don't think the dollar is going to be worth much in 10 years. That doesn't seen unreasonable to me.

 

i have a 401 k.... over last quarter, invested $1500, value dropped $2100...so contribution for first part of year was for less than nothing... i would be crying but then i think of last year's first quarter when foreign funds investment was about $375 (i do the 25/25/25/25 rule) but return was $800...so it all balances out...

and yea, if you are putting all your money into dollars, you might want to revisit that. heck i only have 25% in and i am reconsidering that move. i have enough time left that im thinking about reinvesting half into long term high risk stock and the other half into foreign currency.

 

DaveinOlyWA, I don't mean to be egging anybody on into making a big switch to foreign currencies at this particular moment. It's just that over the longer term I think that a mix of assets that includes things that are not dollar assets (real goods, foreign assets) is prudent.

 

oh i am fully aware that diversification is prudent but i did foreign currency investments over 2 years ago... just looking at my slowth growth, stable investments and wondering if i am putting too much into it a little too early is all.

 

You might want to check how the conversion will effect your insurance if you own a Prius with comp coverage. Here is my experience. I made the 1K deposit and started to worry about the insurance with AIG, so that night I called them. After spending at least 5 minutes trying to explain to the person what it was, who made it, etc, she put me on hold for another 5 minutes while she talked to the underwriting dept. Finally she informed me that they couldn't cover it. I told her how disappointed I was and that I might just get the Hymotion and just risk breaking it in an accident with it and she said "no, you don't understand..we can't insure the car at all". Huh? She went on to explain that it was considered a "performance enhancement"! Disgusted I called progessive only to find that they would cover the car but not the pack unless I wanted to pay an extra 100/mo. By this time I was of the opinion just screw it and I would get my 1K back. I called a123 the next day and they said that the had had a computer glitch and they were about to call me and tell me to put the deposit down again anyway so we could all just forget it. Obviously A123 has dealt with fleet vehicles so much that they hadn't even considered the insurance aspect. A123 told me that they would email me with some ideas (ie, who might cover it at a reasonalble price) once they "checked into it", but of course they never did. Obviously they don't need the sale. I think I'll just drive my '08 till gen3 comes out in 2010 or 2011 and sell the older one.

 

Insurance is just one area that 'early adopters' get to do the trail-blazing on. Insurance companies are notoriously risk-averse (funny that, since they are in the risk 'insurance' business). If you are not wanting to deal with the increased insurance risk exposure, then a Hymotion battery pack is not for you.

 

Greenoldman, thanks for the warning. I haven't talked to my insurance agent yet (State Farm). I was thinking that maybe they wouldn't insure the Hymotion pack, it never occurred to me that they might cancel my car insurance if I had it installed. Yeah, no car insurance would be a deal breaker. I can definitely understand where that's coming from -- not that it makes sense, but that the concept is so new the insurers have nowhere to place the Hymotion pack within their standard underwriting system. So it gets inappropriately lumped with something else. In effect, its no different from putting a $10,000 sound system in the car, maybe that's the pitch I'll make to my insurer. At some level I can deal with it if they won't insure the pack, but I have to have liability insurance to be able to drive the car.

 

I have Erie Insurance and my insurance agent called the underwriter. With Erie it is covered with a possible premium increase. They said it was no different to adding an expensive audio equipment. He told me to save all receipts to be able to show the cost of the Hymotion pack.

 

[FONT=&quot]That's what Progressive told me until I pressed for numbers. I'm selling my '07 Saturn AuraXR and replacing it with the Prius package 6. So my insurance would go down slightly with the Prius until you price in the Hymotion pack. Our insurance would go from $401/6months (including liability on a 92 Chevy p/u) without the battery pack to $1062/6mo with the pack. That's a real problem for me since I was barely willing to put up with headache anyway (replacing the new factory tires with Michelin run flats, driving from Texas to the west coast for installation, their crappy 1 year guarantee, and of course the initial early-adopter kick in the head of 10K). I think I'll just enjoy my 45-50 MPG and call it good enough. That’s about 2X what I’m getting overall on the Saturn. Good luck to you with Erie but I'm out. Maybe I'll revisit the idea if I keep the Prius as a second car, the price has come down substantially on the pack, and I'm only carrying liability anyway on my (by then) aging Prius[/FONT]

 

I understand where you are coming from. For me, it's a 8 hour drive to get the Hymotion installed. I would correct one point, they are offering a 3 year warranty on the pack. I'm so sick of giving money to the oil companies I willing to take a loss. This might be my last stand to say stick it to big oil. I'd love to dump our Yukon right now, but we simply don't drive it that much so I will keep it. The Prius is now or family transportation. My only regret is not being earlier in my decision. I drive a lot during the summer and a July install would have been thousands of miles ahead of my install date in October. My only other thought is let a few people ahead of me work out any early hassles.

 

I'm still on the fence about the pack.

But the insurance discussion prompted me to call my insurance folks at GEICO. They said "No Problem" and they would insure it just like any other "electric car" or alternative fuel vehicle. She noted that they encourage such things. Which may be true since the cost of my insurance went down about $500 compared to the cost for a serious POJ-Lemon-lawed 2006 Honda Odyssey. She went on to say that many after-market DVD systems cost as much if not more than $10K.

 

Did GEICO say they would cover the Hymotion battery pack at no additional premium?

Often, there is 'no problem' in getting additional coverage; it is just at an additional premium amount....

 

You're basically adding 10k to a car currently worth about 20k on the market. I'll bet that'll drive a substantial insurance premium....