Where you going to run to?

alaska. or Moscow.

it's cold. for now.

 

There have been some local studies which suggest the Pacific Northwest will fare better than other regions, based on the factors you mentioned. Warming will change the plant species which grow, particularly on southern slopes, but lumber trees will continue to grow on the north side.

One hazard of the PNW, unrecognized by many, is geologic: vulcanism and subduction of the Juan de Fuca plate.

 

You think with ~400 million people in N. America, and X billions world wide, there is anywhere you will be able to "run"? Run to find your bucolic setting safe and free from the travails of the "non believers"? Dream on!

No where,,,repeat, no where will be comfortable. The S.W US is already "stealing" a great measure of Rocky Mountain water. Plans for the rocky Mt. trench water system to move water from B.C and Alta to CA are on many drawing boards. Food shortages, energy shortages,,,resource shortages of many kinds will make no one safe!

The faster we all disavow ourselves that somehow we are special, and deserve to have it better than the rest of the world, the faster we might respond to what I believe to be a looming crisis, and do something to prevent it, rather than make it better for ME!

You think for one minute if you have a happy life in upstate NY, or the Sunshine coast, the hoards of unwashed from starving urban centers such as BO-Wash, Eugene-Vancouver won't be beating down the door to get theirs? (At least metaphorically!)

Icarus

 

Somewhere other than where I live now. The East is expected to be wetter. The West drier. Canada would be the place, but not too far. One aspect of a warmer earth will be lots of snow up there, which will impact the growing season, amongst other things.

 

Thanks for starting this thread chogan2! I've been thinking about this for a long time. I agree the PNW has been at the top of my list. We have family on both sides there fortunately. I think there is one thing that will become more and more important, and that is community. Globalization will become localization and we will come to depend on each other more and more. Wherever you end up, get to know your neighbors, learn how to work together and look out for each other. We will need experts in growing food, nutrition, medicinal plants, water reclamation, hunting, survival, etc. I started a garden this year for the purpose of learning how. I've got a nice setup here in So Cal (the only fossil fuel I still use is natural gas which I plan to phase out, and I drive my Prius about once a month) but the problem in the long run is of course water. Since you mentioned the sagging dollar, I've also transitioned my retirement and other savings into safer places.

The best place to be I think is Willits, CA. That town has it figured out.

 

Water won't necessarily be scarce. I think we're going to see the deployment of desalination plants on a massive scale. The real question is where are we gonna get the energy for that. However, the only real obstacle is cost because there's loads of clean energy to get had. For a while it will just cost more.

 

I hope so but I've given up on waiting for the government or anybody else to come along and solve my problems. I've decided that energy independence and self-sufficiency starts with myself. I now have 3 water barrels to make as much use of rain water and reclaimed water as possible. I think the problem has gotten too big to wait for somebody else to come along and solve it.

 

That's true to some extent, but unless you're going to go hide in the woods, you preparedness will be for nowt. A collapse of society will swallow you too because the strong (most guns) will take what you've got.

That said, what you're doing is wise because you're learning skills and setting up a cushion to soften the blow of a nastier environment.

 

That's the choice we're faced with. The Mad Max scenario, or the Cuba scenario. I do believe it's a choice and that the more we can do to ease the transition, the likelier we are to have the Cuba outcome. It starts with community. Hiding in the woods is the opposite of what I have in mind.

Here is a great article on Willits, my heroes:
http://www.metroactive.com/papers/sonoma/08.10.05/willits-0532.html

 

In the end I think we'll learn. My feeling has always been that we'll get a C. Not an A, but not an F either.

For Americans it's tough because we have such an individualist attitude about so many things. It pervades our culture to a massive extent. In many ways, to overcome the problems that we face we're going to put community ahead of the individual. We do a pretty good job of pulling together when we need to and I think we'll see more and more of that as time goes on.

 

I'm not planning on going anywhere. We'll camp out in the yard if it comes to that, though an earthquake is still a distinct possibility. The garden is getting fenced off, the guard dog is on order...I'm sure the kids will turn up their noses at barbecued squirrel, but we're thinking through the 'what ifs' and dealing with it as best we can in our busy lives. I wouldn't call living in the forest 'running away', but we'll go if we have to. The so-called wilderness is far more civilised than most downtown bars even on a weeknight.

 

Forests?! Forests require a healthy eco-system to sustain themselves. We are already see huge forest die off in BC due to climate change allowing Pine Bark Beetle to thrive,,and kill millions of hectares of trees. Healthy forest? I think not. Mono-sylva "forests" are not forests at all, but tree farms, and their ability to adapt to climate change is poor at best. (If the pine bark beetle, which is already into Alberta, across the rockies, gets into the Boreal forest, it might very well make the current state look pale by comparison.)

To those that think that they "can go somewhere" to avoid the coming changes, I say,, "Wake up!" do everything you can to prevent the coming problems, and maybe, just maybe we all might be a bit better off!


Icarus

 

(1) I do not think we can do anything to prevent the coming catastrophes (environmental, energy, economic).
(2) I have taken personal responsibility to reduce my own environmental impact and am doing everything I know how to help others.
(3) There will be mass starvation, mass poverty, disease, ecological disaster, you name it. We will need each other more than ever to get through this. Those of us who can band together and prepare for what's to come stand a better chance.

 

My parents and I are looking at all of our citrus trees dieing soon.

First it was the olive tree due to some beetle, mite bug thing.

Now there is some sort of citrus fly that's been caught in Mexico that will be here soon. No way to fight it. It kills citrus trees. Once they've got it, they're dead. And once the bug is here, no use planting another tree.

So we're enjoying the oranges and lemons while we have them.

And I just added an orange, lime and tangerine to my current lemon tree.

At least I'll have the apricots. Until some other blight comes along.

 

Let me offer a strange approach..... using history as a guide. Let's take a look at some big things such as:
1) The black plague(s)
2) The ice ages covering Nothern Europe
3) The depression of the 1930s in the USA (and many other parts of the world).

Then look at some events that resulted in "national wealth":
1) Columbus being the last person to discover America (and all the Native Indian gold)
2) The California Gold Rush (and all the hydrowashing for gold)

What is interesting to me is that the "Mad Max" concept that many posters postulate does not seem to have routinely occurred in bad times. However, if money can be obtained by force, then great damage seems likely. Think of your own historical examples.

I'll stay put till it becomes clear where the most caring people are living....which may have little do with the optimum climate.

 

Unless another Dennis Gonsalves arrives.

Dennis was a virologist who saw ringspot virus slowly destroying Hawaii's Papaya trees. He then found a gene that could resist the virus and in a nick of time saved the virus rampage across the Puna region in 1992. Today the virus resistant Papaya is ~ 80% of the Hawaii crop. All it takes is one smart, caring individual to make a difference.

APSnet Feature: Transgenic Virus Resistant Papaya

 

Yes, I'm well aware of the damage the pine beetle has done, and the profound difference between a forest and a tree farm. The stands of dead Pine trees stretch as far as the eye can see, and the coming fires are going to be massive. But, we still have Cedar, Cypress, Fir, Spruce, and many other species of tree in our forests, so they're not dead yet.

We've witnessed many changes already, and the changes seem biggest the further North you go - polar bear cubs are smaller and fewer, caribou tracks go in circles on the ice floes and disappear, and we have summer drought in the rainforest.

The alarm bells have been ringing since before I was born, but not enough people are listening. The 'eco-terrorists' are going to be busy.

 

Olive fruit fly. My Dad has tried everything. He hasn't had a crop of olives in several years.

Orange trees next.

 

Think of social chaos of Peak Oil as your trial run.

-At least 3 months of MREs, preferably a year
-Seeds
-Cultivation implements
-Land (maybe look for a "work from home" position if your field allows)
-Rifle that can pull double-duty for small game hunting and home defense
-Shotgun for bird hunting and home defense
*Choose guns that use easy-to-find ammo: .233 (rifle), 12 guage (shotgun), 9mm (pistol)
-As much ammo as you feel is reasonable
-Proximity to federal/state lands (or unfenced public land) rich in game
-Prius
-4wd vehicle, perhaps diesel
-generator
-tools - everything from tweezers to an axe

Be prepared to have no electricity and no gasoline. Maybe you will have heat from natural gas... maybe. If you want to live in a colder climate, consider whether you want to chop wood two months out of the year.

Best thing you can do is to learn how to farm, hunt, and use survival skills. Learn how to live like we used to before modern convenience. Learn how to work with other people instead of resenting them.

So, if you can get past the social chaos predicted to accompany Peak Oil, global warming should be easier to deal with. I'm much more afraid of my neighbor trying to hoard food from the grocery store (the "I'm-not-afraid-to-kill-you-to-feed-my-kids-because-of-my-lack-of-foresight" person) than I am of all of us as a community dealing with a natural disasters (man-made or otherwise).

Bottom line is if you live in an urban area you will die for lack of food. People with food, guns, and AMMO will survive. If you live in a more rural area with a tight-knit community, you're odds of survival go up. It's likely ammunition will become the new currency.

Anywho... back to watching TV!