33,000 buyers supposedly signed up for GM Volt

Aliendroid, market pricing of new tech comes in two flavors: high, to take advantage of the toy crowd; and low, to gain rapid market acceptance from the people who demand a market correction for the risk of buying tech with unknown reliability. GM can certainly price the Volt $40,000, but the toy crowd is relatively small (and a lot of them are in Toyota's camp pretty firmly), and they risk ceding the mass market mindshare to Toyota.

 

Based on the latest stuff posted here, the Volt will get around 30 mpg on gasoline after the battery is depleted. That's pretty poor. It means the Volt would not be much good for long road trips. It would be great within its EV range, and the ICE means that it would not leave you stranded if you had to go a bit farther. But for that, you could get a 100-mile EV. The Volt is looking worse and worse.

I still think the concept is great, but they should give it an EV range of 60 miles and a gas-only mpg of at least 45, but preferably 50 mpg on the freeway.

 

How are you going to drive 150 or 300 miles in a 100mile EV without being stranded. Come on! The extended range electric vehicle can be bought by 100% of the population while an electric vehicle with 100 mile range will not be very attractive to normal people.

They havn't changed the goal of 50mpg for the volt. The cobalt get's a highway rating of 37 which is based on the volt's platform and the volt will be a full hybrid. They expect the non-hybrid cruze will get over 40mpg. My cobalt XFE gets 37 mpg at 70 mph and 45 mpg at 55 mph.
Priuschat is not the site that keeps up with volt development. Just because some mindless prius groupie says the volt will get 30mpg doesn't mean that is correct.

Waitlist is 43,950 now.

 

Why listen to what people actually said, if you can guess about what they really meant to make the data better support your position? Since the poll asked "Whats the most you'd be willing to pay", answering 50% less than the most you'd be willing to pay is a little weird. If the car actually existed in its final form, we had a full set of specs, we had an actual price, and then they had 45,000 people willing to put down a large deposit to commit I would be impressed. Until then its an informal poll of people that kind of like the idea if it doesn't cost them any more than a regular car.

If you can afford to pay an extra ~$10-15k for a smaller car that should reduce the average drivers fuel bill by ~$300/yr over a Prius PHEV10, thats cool for you. I don't think thats a position thats going to win them a huge amount of business. I would consider it, if I had a longer commute. As it is, a PHEV10 would cover 100% as I can charge at home and at work and drive surface streets.

GM has claimed up to 50mpg after entering charge sustain mode. They have also made quotes regarding fuel costs that in doing a little simple math indicate it could be as low as 30mpg. Until they actually finish the car and publish the data, who knows? It is however reasonable to expect that the Volt will be less efficient than the Prius on long highway runs, as this is is an operating region where series hybrids are generally less efficient. The requirement for the ICE energy to be converted to electricity and back to mechanical puts the series hybrid at a disadvantage in this case. The only real test data I've seen seems to indicate the EV range is coming in closer to 33 miles, rather than 40. Until they actually decide on a battery vendor and finalize the design and publish the real data, who knows?

Rob

 

"Until then its an informal poll of people that kind of like the idea if it doesn't cost them any more than a regular car."

Yes, that means that maybe only 1% of the people who would be interested in this car if they knew there was a waitlist like this are signed up. The 43,000 number is a tiny fraction of the number of people who would like to own a volt.

"Since the poll asked "Whats the most you'd be willing to pay", answering 50% less than the most you'd be willing to pay is a little weird."

It's not weird, it's a way to tell GM that you want the volt to be affordable, which if you read the gm-volt.com site you would understand that people are tying to tell GM to make it affordable.

"If you can afford to pay an extra ~$10-15k for a smaller car that should reduce the average drivers fuel bill by ~$300/yr over a Prius PHEV10, thats cool for you. "

People buy the L5 from hymotion and you prius groupies don't criticize them. I find it a little pathetic that you have to criticize the volt when it is obvious that they are trying to build a fantastic vehicle.

"They have also made quotes regarding fuel costs that in doing a little simple math indicate it could be as low as 30mpg."

So this is how you got the 30mpg number. You don't know the price per gallon of gasoline they used for their calculation. Sorry dude, but as I explained above the cobalt XFE gets 37mpg (I own one and I get 45, but I drive slow), to say a similar sized full hybrid with lower wind drag coefficient is going to get 30mpg is prabably a bad bet.

"The requirement for the ICE energy to be converted to electricity and back to mechanical puts the series hybrid at a disadvantage in this case."

Several problems with your statement there. 1. the ICE can run at the most efficient rpm and does not have to be tuned for a large rpm band, which makes it a good candidate for the HCCI engine. GMs HCCI engine is a gasoline engine that runs like a diesel engine getting you an extra 20% efficiency while the constant RPM should provide significant efficiency as well. Someone may have done research on this type of hybrid setup, but no one built an engine designed for it and tuned for it.

There are no test data showing 33 miles all electric range for a VOLT. They don't even have the eflex in a real volt body. Oh you mean the malibu with the eflex is going 33 miles. The malibu isn't an efficient car though, so if the malibu with the eflex is going 33 miles than I bet the volt goes more than 40 on a charge. I don't know where you got the 33 mile number anyway.

I know all of you are hoping and praying for the volt project to fail (which is lame and obvious in your posts). But I'm hoping it succeeds and I think it will.

 

Most American families have two or more cars, but only need one extended range vehicle for road trips. I never drive 100 miles in one day unless I'm on a road trip, and for road trips, 30 mpg is unacceptable. For most American families, the Volt is too small for road trips, so for most Americans, the Volt is only acceptable as a daily commuter car, not as a long-range car, and so, for them also, a 100-mile EV would be perfectly suitable as a daily commuter, supplemented by a larger gas car, such as the Prius with its 50-mpg hwy for road trips.

And that wait list is not even an actual waiting list. It's just some Volt enthusiast asking people if they want one and how much they'd pay, in hopes of convincing GM to actually build the thing. It's doubtful they will. As you pointed out yourself, their "production Volt" is not a Volt at all. It's just an EV in a Volt body, assembled for publicity purposes.

 

Really?

That sure seems like a major waste of $$$ for those without access to an outlet at home. Lots of people park in lots & streets, where their hope of plugging in is totally unrealistic.

This is why selling FULL hybrids is such a great business model. The plug can be offered as an upgrade rather than an entirely different system.

.

 

Highly unlikely. Like the early hybrids, the people who are going to be interested in paying a premium for cutting edge tech will largely be those who already know about it and are excited about it. Joe Sixpack probably won't drop 40 Gs on a slow, small sedan just because it gets good mileage.

Since the most likely result of people trying to lowball GM would be GM deciding they can't build the car at a price people want and canceling the whole program, I think its weird. It seems they didn't pay much attention to the people at your forum, as they could have decided to keep the price reasonable by dropping the EV range. This would have made very little impact in the average drivers fuel savings, but kept the price reasonable. This is exactly what Hymotion did with the L5. My understanding is they had originally planned to release a larger pack, but feedback from customers was that the cost was to high. So they dialed back the range to get it into a price range people could live with. As a result, they are selling a lot more conversions than anyone else.

On the contrary, I applaud people who buy an L5 and I would do the same for those willing to drop 40Gs on a Volt. Both are altruistic acts on a scale rarely seen today. My concern, if you actually read what I said, is that I fear that at this price they won't sell very many no matter what the range. If people still argue the Prius doesn't make sense from a cost/payback standpoint, just imagine what they will say when they do the numbers on the Volt!

From GM's official Volt launch press release dated 9/16/08:

GM estimates that the Volt will cost about two cents per mile to drive while under battery power compared to 12 cents per mile using gasoline priced at $3.60 per gallon.

3.60 $/gal / 0.12 $/mile = 30 mpg

2c/mile is a very common number to use for PHEVs/BEVs on electric, sounds reasonable. For comparison at 46mpg, a Prius costs about 7.8c/mile to operate on gas at $3.60 per gallon.

Everything you just said is also 90%+ true for the Prius as well. If the Prius were a straight parallel hybrid like GM's BAS, or Honda's IMA I might agree (although Hondas CVT's make it less true too). Because the Prius' engine rpm is completely decoupled from wheel rpm it can be highly optimized to run only in several discrete rpm steps, and optimized for the most common (cruising) rpm. The US DOE found the Prius' Atkinson cycle engine can cruise at 60mph with a steady state thermodynamic efficiency of 37%, greatly improved over a traditional ICE.

The HCCI design is interesting, but unlikely. GM has already indicated they removed the traditional turbocharger on the Volts engine because they feel like there is already enough fancy technology in it (in other words its already too expensive). They've already announced that the engine will be the same as the 1.4L for the upcoming Cruze (Cobalt replacement) but without the turbo. Some have speculated that they will partially Atkinsonize it, but that is I believe not confirmed. Assuming they can get its efficiency up as high as the Prius' engine, they will still be running at a disadvantage. The Volt is heavier, appears to have a higher CdA, and has a 10-20% built in efficiency penalty under ICE steady state cruising due to its series drive design.

You may be at least partially right on this one. Looking back, I think I was remembering the revelation that the concept version was only going to be able to manage 33 miles due to its crappy Cd. When they interviewed the eingineers about why the production version shape was so different they revealed that tidbit. Getting the Cd down to 0.28 bought them 6-7 miles of range and got them back to 40 miles. I thought I had seen something else lately, indicating they were not going to be able to cycle the batteries as deeply as the wanted to extend the lifetime, but I'm not sure now where (or if) I had seen that.

I think thats a pretty unfair analysis. We've been debating this car for a year or more, as a lot of us are very interested in it. I believe Hybrids, then Plug-in Hybrids, then full Battery Electrics are the most practical fast track to energy independence and curbing our carbon and tailpipe emissions. I spent a year designing and simulating a full BEV conversion for my old car, but just couldn't get the numbers to work out in a way that was practical for my family. At that point I decided the next best thing was a Prius, which I will eventually upgrade to plugin. I don't particularly care who comes out with plugin hybrids, I just care that its well done. While on the one hand GM has to be given credit for pushing EV tech forward in the 90's, their change of heart and torpedoing of the project at the turn of the century probably set the EV movement and large scale advanced battery development back 10 years. Thats part of the reason many of us are suspicious of GMs motives this time around. For that reason a lot of their marketing tactics raise a lot of hackles on this board. It seem like they get it, and want to design a good car. I hope they do.

My main concern is their choice of a series hybrid design and choice to go with a long range PHEV as their only serious high efficiency offering. If they just started by making a competent hybrid, something almost as good as the current Prius or Civic Hybrid, and priced it reasonably they would sell a ton of cars. There are lots of people out there who want a truly fuel efficient American built car. Beyond that, if they built a reasonable range PHEV at a reasonable price that would be great. At $20-30k they would sell a lot of cars, which would help drive consumer acceptance of plugin vehicles, and create demand for batteries which would increase volume production and bring down costs. By jumping right to a long range PHEV, at a price most people can't afford I am very afraid that we are setting things up for history to repeat itself. If the cars are too expensive they won't sell very many. Instead of conceding that they overdesigned it, GM may take this as proof that no one wants plugin cars just like they've been saying for the last 10 years. If GM pulls out, and manages to shift the focus once again to fuel cells, or biofuels, I fear we could once again have the opportunity to make a real difference in our fuel consumption yanked out from under us.

Rob

 

Here's a look back in history, the GM Precept concept, unvelied at the 2000 Detroit auto show -

GM Unveils Concept Car That Gets 80 Miles A Gallon

Interestingly, the Prius was also unveiled at the same show. Toyota obviously had a car they could really sell. My cube neighbor bought one in January 2001 after waiting 4 months for it (or was that 6?)

anyhoo, when GM comes out with a concept and says 'look what we can do', many are skeptical.

Bob Lutz interview about the Volt, on 60 minutes last Sunday, was filled with 'hope so's' and car price climbing towards $40k.

 

Isn't about time for another GM concept car to be revealed?

 

the list means NOTHING...

i am on it, i signed up when the Volt was supposed to get "up to 40 miles EV range for prices starting in the mid 20's"

as we all know, THAT volt will never happen even after the $7500 tax credit

also, i find it MINIMALLY altruistic to buy a car that still burns gas at any price. changing your commuting methods, taking a bus, train or bike is doing something.

buying a 100% EV is doing something (had to mention that!!) albeit, not as much as the above...

buying anything that gets better gas mileage WAS doing something. but that was back when hybrids faced a large uphill climb full of misconceptions... not so true any more.

as much as i love my Pri, its still the best option for longer distance travel, i will not buy another if i can get an EV that can do the trick which means the volt, as nice as it sounds, is simply

5 YEARS TOO LATE