Deutsche Bank: Electrification of automobile will happen quickly

Fibb222 · Nov 26, 2008

Here's an interesting report that you may have missed.

Electric Cars: Plugged In

Outlook: dramatic change fosters the rise of electric vehicles

Rising oil prices, increased societal concern about climate change, and a barrage of regulations focusing on fuel/energy efficiency/CO2 emissions have the potential to cause profound changes in the global auto industry over the next five to 10 years. Industry market share, mix, competitive advantages, vehicle content levels, used vehicle values, the frequency of consumer purchases, and powertrain technology â€“ all could change more dramatically over the next five years than they have in the past 50.
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I found it on Shai Agassi's blog:

The Long Tailpipe - Shai Agassi's Blog

Also I recommend:

Shai Agassi pitches $100 billion plan - AutoblogGreen

clett · Nov 27, 2008

Deutsche bank correct. People just don't appreciate how quickly this change is going to happen.

jprates · Nov 27, 2008

Fibb222 said: ↑

Here's an interesting report that you may have missed.
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Very good link, thank you so much for this.
I will post this on my forum as well.

Fibb222 · Nov 27, 2008

I especially think the info on page 13 is interesting â€¦

We believe that many markets will emerge for large format lithium ion batteries, including commercial truck, stationary power, and aviation. In addition, as vehicles become increasingly electrified, we see an emerging opportunity for vehicles to provide/sell electricity back to the grid to balance fluctuations in load and adapt to equipment failures.

Todayâ€™s electric grid has essentially no storage, and it has to maintain excess capacity in order to meet regulation control (fine-tuning the frequency and voltage of the grid), peak demand, and spinning reserves (reserves available to come on line quickly in the event of an outage).

A 2004 study of these costs by Willett Kempton and Jasna Tomic of the University of Delaware estimated that economic the cost of meeting these needs equates to roughly $12 bn per year for U.S. utilities. Typically, light vehicles are only used 4% of the time for transport. Assuming that future plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles will be similarly utilized, there is potential for them to be connected to the grid (in the garage or in an office parking lot) for some portion of the remaining 96% of the time.

Using real world pricing from the California Independent System Operator (CAISO), and the capacity and throughput of a Toyota RAV4 electric vehicle using older NiMH battery technology, Kempton and Tomic estimated that regulation services could theoretically provide $3285-$4928 of annual revenue to the RAV4 owner.

Weâ€™d note that regulation of the grid would be expected to only use a very small (i.e. 4%) part of a typical vehicleâ€™s battery capacity, which may not even be noticeable for the vehicle owner). Given the compelling financial benefits of having storage available, utilities have recently begun purchasing large format lithium ion batteries themselves. For example, we are already aware of a 2 MW battery sale by A123 in October, 2007, and 20 MW bookings more recently.

Alternative power could be transformed by this technology

The storage capacity of lithium ion batteries would also have significant implications for certain types of alternative power, as energy can now be economically stored during peak PV (solar) power generation during the day, or at night during peak wind power generation. Dong Energy, a primarily wind powered utility based in Denmark, recently signed an agreement with Project Better Place that will enable the utility to store energy generated at night within Project Better Place electric vehicles, and utilize some of that stored energy during the day, when it is less windy.
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Deutsche Bank: Electrification of automobile will happen quickly

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