EV's a Long Way Off?

This is a bizzare article. He predicts Tesla's demise based on.....his opinion. When evaluating a company, I look at the cash flow and business plan. Right now everything Telsa makes is sold out. They are successfully cutting costs (if brutally). They are getting financing. They have loans on the way.

Now look at GM.

Sorry, but by thinking for myself, I come to a completely different conclusion then this writer.

 

I think the writer is right on Tesla. The Tesla is hand made. Assuming they can deliver ten Teslas a month. The revenue is $1.1m. The profit is $220K per month at 20% margin. It won't make the payroll and overhead and they are bleeding. It doesn't matter how much orders on the book if they cannot deliver in volume.

With gas price less than $2 the incentive to go EV diminishes. So far the pre-orders still remains at ~1000.

 

once again, this article states the obvious....EV's are not a complete solution but we already knew that.

what will be a solution is a complete revamp of how we move about the country. mass transit, "car-sharing", AND EV's will all be part of a long term solution.

we fret over range issues for what?? 5%, 10% of our driving needs??

i have a 15 mile RT commute which consumes 50% of my driving needs. add to that, misc errands, another 40% most of which are significantly shorter (i have an EV so these numbers are not guesstimates. they are real life driving stats gathered a YEAR before i got the EV) 70% are 10 miles RT. so 10% are trips that my current EV could not handle.

but of that 10%, 80% could not be handled due to seating capacity. i have a 2 seater (there is now a Miles, 4 seater, 40 mile range etc, that is out...) so my EV is used extensively and does cover a lot of my transportation needs.

granted, we have a Pri because there are the times where we need the extra distance and yes, we both can use the Zenn to commute with (her commute is actually shorter than mine) and we have also traded cars a few times because of need. so it works for us, it wont work for everyone or even MOST everyone.

but i still believe we are talking a niche market that will still work for several million people . to discount EV's because it wont work for everyone is a huge mistake

 

My typical workday includes three one-way trips of about 25 miles each so an EV with 100+ range (a little more for extended battery life is better) would suffice. I would install a small Honda genset in the car to extend the range and battery life as well. A 6.5kw generator (Honda EU6500iSA, $4000 retail) would keep up with the current drain at 30 MPH and extend the range by almost a factor of two at 60 MPH (genset running continuously, works out to about 80 MPG plus electric energy cost of course since this makes the EV a series hybrid).

Yes I would buy an EV replacing our Jetta to stand aside the Prius in my garage.

JeffD

 

we also have to look at synergy as well. with a large niche of EV's. plug in spots will become more common, reducing the range needed.

Olympia, WA is lucky that we have an EV pioneer who has 2 EV's and solar(ya solar in rainy Washington State! can you believe it??) on his house. he publishes an EV site and has devoted his personal time to petitioning local businesses to offer plug in parking. its this kind of public awareness and support that will continue to grow as EV's become more popular.

on this site, with our extensive knowledge of hybrids and EV options, sometimes we become jaded in what we know. i am astounded on a daily basis as to the lack of awareness most people have about EV's...

i am approached daily by people who had no idea that a EV even existed. its like the early days of the Prius all over again.

in 2004, the general concensus was that hybrids were a fad that would fade away because they simply did not fit in with ALL of our transportation needs. well they didnt back then and they still dont. but hybrids do fill a very large niche and EV's have the potential to do so as well. they just need a little bit of support is all.

 

Tesla is gradually scaling up production. They are currently at 12-15 per week. They will be at 30 per week in early 2009. Their goal is 40 per week (2,000 per year) because that is the maximum output of the production line for the "glider" frame at the Lotus factory in England.

From a customer meeting we had with Tesla in September, we were told that Tesla is profitable at 40 per week.

Telsa would be losing money if they tried to make more than 40 per week because it would require a 2nd production line in England. With a 2nd line, they would likely be losing money on a production level less than 3,000 Roadsters per year.

So for this model, they will likely never exceed 40 per week (2,000 per year).

Last I heard (a few months ago) the current order backlog is about 1,200 vehicles with deposits.

 

There are additional factors to consider that point to future success. Here are some:
1) They are starting to sell their battery technology to other auto firms. The certification that these pack can meet US requirements for auto safety is worth quite a premium for the non-Tesla makers. This would be quite a cash cow. One that can be milked now and does not need the Lotus plant.
2) Production costs continually go down. This is often overlooked when figuring profitability and would allow dropping the price of the Sportster in a year or two with no loss in cash flow.
3) Musk managed to get Space-X profitable in a closed market. Autos sales is an open market.
4) The internal bickering is horrible. Of course this is necessary in a startup in order to make the hard adjustments necessary to mature. The end result is succeeding. (GM could use a lot more internal bickering.)

Time and time again, the major factor in startup success is being first to market. Tesla has now achieved this.

 

ahhhhhhhhhh. yes. plug-in at the In-N-Out Burger in Barstow. Nice!

It would be like a parking meter; insert $1.50 and plug right in. If all shopping centers and fast food restaurants added such plugs, EV would be clearly more feasible. And local businesses could make a few extra dollars.

 

I suspect people who buy EV's especially teslas don't care what the price of gas is.

 

Or they care very, very much.

 

Originally Posted by burritos
I suspect people who buy EV's especially teslas don't care what the price of gas is.

Or they are worried about not having any gas available at all someday.
It's called Peak Oil.

Some people think it might happen.

 

I sure hope Tesla makes it in the long run, they're based about 25 miles West of here.

As for hybrids, wait 'til Honda and Toyota get the one two punch going with the sexed up styling of the Pri and Insight.

The current Prius is a neat little car. Little more power, better driver's seat and a facelift on that oh ten, the waitlists will be long and distuinguished next year.

 

I am referring to the Volt, at <$2 gas, it is hard press to buy a $40K car to save fuel cost.

Tesla buyers are niche buyer like Ferrari owners. I agree with you gas is not a concern for them.

 

I will answer this honestly. I don't need to save money on gasoline. That is not the reason I am getting a Tesla. That is not the reason I got the Hymotion battery for my Prius. That is not the reason I got the Vectrix electric scooter.

If you don't know about "Peak Oil", read up on the issue. This has nothing to do with saving money. It has to do with the ability to get from point A to point B. The problems don't start when all of the oil is gone. The problems start when 1/2 of the oil is gone at the peak of the supply bell curve.

The downside of the bell curve is going to be really rough. Who gets left out when there is not enough gasoline to go around for everyone?

 

90% of the population does care about the gas price and the cost of food to put on the table. You are the lucky 10%.

 

Once Peak Oil starts squeezing, the cost of gasoline is going to make batteries seem cheap. The total cost of ownership for a Plug-In is competitive now. The scale just tips more and more in favor of EVs and PHEVs as we move deeper beyond the peak.

So the 90% of the population that is seduced into complacency by $2 gasoline is in for a big surprise. Getting an EV or PHEV now would be the smartest thing for everyone. This is an industry that we really need to succeed in order for our economy to continue on some functional level.

I really don't see any other feasible solution to Peak Oil other than going electric for our transportation systems as quickly as possible.

 

I bought my Prius in March 2003 for ~$24k fully loaded including nav, cassette & CD, extra side air bags and dealer added leather and sunroof. I remember hearing this same argument then about the value of the vehicle vs its purchase cost.

Recently the same dealership that I purchased it from offered me $15k as a trade-in but I've decided to pass it on to my oldest son as I've had relatively little problems with it and would like for him to have a reliable and low emissions vehicle. I have over 120,000 miles on it and have averaged 50 mpg's.

I'm very interested in adding the Hymotion plug-in capability onto the 2009 regardless of current gas prices. It is unknown right now what the premium resale value will be with this addition as the current Prius resales are already high without PHEV capabilities but I suspect that there will be interested customers who value such capabilities.

 

That is my thought as well. The Hymotion battery has a really long life expectancy. I believe that in testing they are at 3,000 cycles and those batteries are still at 85% of original capacity. So that is almost once per day, every day for 10 years.

I doubt I will keep my 2009 Hymotion Prius for 10 years, so I do expect to test the resale value of a used Hymotion system. Hopefully showing the new potential buyer a picture like this will help with the sale.

 

I doubt that because there are no EV's or PHEV's that match the form, fit, function and cost /warranty of the most popular cars, trucks and SUV's.

The auto industry needs to maximize hybrid electric form, fit and functionality to make HEV's the cars, trucks, SUV's, CUV's, etc .. of choice for now.

Battery technology/warranty/cost/length of life is the #1 concern for average drivers. Just last night, a Honda Civic driver said he heard Prius batteries last only 10 years and cost over $8k to replace. Typical misconception.