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The NEW US Economy

Discussion in 'Fred's House of Pancakes' started by malorn, Dec 2, 2008.

  1. malorn

    malorn Senior Member

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    I think these two paragraphs pretty much sum up our economic situation today. What is this process leaving the US with? What will our children inherit economically? How about our grandchildren?

    "But the inventory glut in Long Beach is not limited to imported cars. There has also been a sharp drop in demand for the port’s single largest export: recycled cardboard and paper products.
    This material typically goes to China, where it is used to make boxes for new electronics and other products that are sent back to the United States. But Chinese factories reacting to sharply falling demand are slowing production, so they need less cardboard. Tons of paper are piling up recycling businesses around the port, the detritus of economies on hold."

    from:
    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/19/business/economy/19ports.html?ref=business

    We receive cars and electronics and send back recycled boxes and then wonder why we are out of money?
     
  2. TonyPSchaefer

    TonyPSchaefer Your Friendly Moderator
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    Wow. Just wow.
     
  3. Rokeby

    Rokeby Member

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    There is also at least one other dynamic behind the lack of shipping to
    Asian ports.

    In a report on NPR last weekend, a US soybean farmer is unable to send
    his product, formerly widely used in Japan due his low prices, due to a
    total lack of available shipping containers. It seems that since most US
    consumers are hunkering down, US wholesalers retailers have cut back on
    orders from the Orient. Ergo, few containers are moving eastward to the
    US. In turn, very little can move westward.
     
  4. malorn

    malorn Senior Member

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    When you get beyond the facade of retail and wall street, what is behind that facade is pretty scarry.

    This is in yesterday's automotive news, I know I am not supposed to post the whole article but I doubt most of you have a subscription.

    Pretend it's December 2009


    [COLOR=#003768]Keith Crain[/COLOR]
    Automotive News
    December 1, 2008 - 12:01 am ET

    It's a year from now.
    Back in 2008, Congress decided to let the auto companies fend for themselves.
    General Motors filed for Chapter 11 in early 2009. Floor traffic stopped in showrooms. GM factories shut down, and soon suppliers started to shut down as well.
    [​IMG]


    Six weeks later, Ford Motor Co. had to suspend operations because many of its major suppliers had gone dark. Chrysler LLC suspended operations at about the same time. It had run out of money, and owner Cerberus wasn't interested in supplying Chrysler with any more cash.
    With the huge losses from GMAC Financial Services as well as Chrysler, Cerberus folded quickly. Another Wall Street firm disappeared, but this time there was no federal rescue.
    Nearly 10,000 car dealers ran out of new-car inventory. Some became used-car dealers and continued to service their old franchises until the parts ran out. Others continued to operate with Asian and European franchises that they already had. Thousands of dealership employees were let go. They weren't needed anymore.
    Tens of thousands of autoworkers, mainly UAW, were sent home with only unemployment comp to help. The companies were bankrupt and could pay no benefits. Pensions were paid out of the separate pension plans, but current employees were out of luck.
    In a few months, it was time for GM to declare Chapter 7. GM sold Europe, Brazil and Australia, which could still produce products locally.
    GM let go just about everybody, not just assembly line workers. Hundreds of thousands of white-collar and blue-collar workers, as well as tens of thousands of dealership employees, in states across the country went looking for unemployment benefits.
    They were joined by out-of-luck former employees of Ford, Chrysler and auto suppliers. Before long, the unemployment rolls swelled by millions.
    Toyota, Honda and Nissan shut down North American manufacturing. Six months later, they were able to replace bankrupt suppliers in the United States with Japanese suppliers. They got their production back up to speed, with much higher import content.
    Almost a year after General Motors declared Chapter 11, millions of workers are unemployed, hundreds of suppliers have disappeared, and 6,000 dealerships have shuttered their doors.
    The United States is in a major depression.
    Now tell me once again why Congress doesn't want to give the domestic auto industry financial assistance.


     
  5. eagle33199

    eagle33199 Platinum Member

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    Here's one reason Malorn: Abuse. If the CEO's had driven down in their fuel efficient 35 MPG American cars to beg for money, things might have gone different. As it was, they don't have cars that can do that. So instead, they each took their own private plane - costing tens of thousands of dollars each - down there to beg for money. After all, they're CEO's, they should live in the lap of luxury, right? And the US government is obligated to maintain their lifestyle because they're too big to fail, right?

    When you get right down to it, the big three folding would be bad for the economy. I don't think you'll hear anyone deny it. But i have yet to see anyone in power (either in government or the big three) propose a plan that will solve their problems and pay back the US tax payer for any bailout they receive. Rather they're trying to get money to follow the same old BS and failed policies.
     
  6. malorn

    malorn Senior Member

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    I appreciate much of what you are saying, but actually Chevy's compare favorable with toyotas(minus the prius) when it comes to mpgs. Detroit has eliminated hundreds of thousands of jobs over the last 5 years as have many other US manufacturers. As a country we are at a crossroads, Detroit is just representing the US economy in general. In the long run if you want to create real wealth you have to make something.
     
  7. eagle33199

    eagle33199 Platinum Member

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    Hehe...

    Chevy has 6 basic car models:
    Cobalt (25/37)
    Malibu (22/33)
    Aveo (27/34)
    HHR (22/32)
    Impala (18/29)
    Corvette (16/26)

    Toyota has 7 basic car models:
    Prius (48/45)
    Yaris (29/36)
    Corolla (26/35)
    Matrix (26/32)
    Camry (21/31)
    Venza (21/29)
    Avalon (19/28)

    And keep in mind from that above list... the Cobalt only got 30 MPG highway in 2008, from what i can find. I certainly applaud them for increasing that. Also, the above list includes the most fuel efficient versions of each model. All of Chevy's models have options for engines that provide significantly lower mileage, while Toyota's don't.
     
  8. malorn

    malorn Senior Member

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    Shall we start with volume?

    Camry(21/31) vs Malibu(22/33)Chevy
    Corolla(26/35)vs cobalt xfe(25/37) Chevy
    Yaris(29/36)vs Aveo(27/34)Toyota
    Avalon(19/28)vs Impala(18/29)Draw
    Matrix(26/32)vs HHR(22/32)Toyota

    do you see an advantage here? The advantage goes to Chevy on trucks, especially when volume is in play. If you asked 100 people which brand gets better mileage, what percentage would think these were the facts? 2? 5? maybe 10? By the way the cobalt xfe got 36 in 2008.
     
  9. Stev0

    Stev0 Honorary Hong Kong Cavalier

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    We can only hope this happens.
     
  10. malorn

    malorn Senior Member

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    Tell me how this would benefit the members of PC? Millions more americans out of work? Are you independently wealthy with a pile of cash stored in your home?
     
  11. JSH

    JSH Senior Member

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    That statement isn't even close to being true. Toyota offers different engine and transmission combinations on all of their models except the Prius.

    Cobalt XFE 2.2L 5M ------- Economy -------- Corolla 1.8L 5M
    ---- (25/30/37) ---------------------------------- (26/30/35)

    Cobalt 2.2L 4A -------------- Power ---------- Corolla 2.4L 5A
    ---- (24/27/33) ------------------------------------ (22/25/30)


    Malibu 2.4L 6A ------------ Economy ---------- Camry 2.4L 5M
    --- (22/25/33) ------------------------------------ (21/25/31)

    Malibu 3.6L 6A ------------- Power ------------ Camry 3.5L 6A
    --- (17/20/26) ------------------------------------- (19/23/28)


    These are but two examples of popular cars but it goes across the entire model line. These numbers are from Fuel Economy for 2009 models.
     
  12. Stev0

    Stev0 Honorary Hong Kong Cavalier

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    It would benefit EVERYBODY because people would stop wasting their money on crap cars. Of course, judging by GM's sales lately, it looks like people are already wising up.
     
  13. PriuStorm

    PriuStorm Senior Member

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    China makes fuel efficient cars too. In fact, last I read, they also have a PHEV coming out. If all we're going to judge on is fuel efficiency, then we shouldn't forget the Chinese.

    Just because someone makes it doesn't mean it's reliable. I can appreciate that GM has made strides in making models that compare favorably with the foreign competition. But for me, the bottomline is reliability. I've owned three American cars (Ford, Buick, Dodge), and now I'll only own Japanese cars (unless something drastic changes in the American car industry). I know with my Toyota or Honda in the driveway, the car will fire up every time I turn the key (or press the button), and the only time it's in the shop is when I've scheduled it at my convenience for a regularly scheduled maintenance service. Can't say the same for the American cars I've had. As such, it doesn't really matter what window dressing MPG figures are put on the American cars. I want a car to last reliably for 10 years with no problems.... in my experience, American cars won't meet up to that. ERgo, I don't buy American.
     
  14. malorn

    malorn Senior Member

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    Do you understand the economics of what you are saying? How that would affect you , your children, your grandchildren? What do you do for a living? do you think it would not affect you?
     
  15. jayman

    jayman Senior Member

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    Here is what I predict will happen: GM et al will receive the billions of dollars. Due to the severe global recession, they still won't be able to sell the vehicles. They will still layoff a lot of unionized American workers

    I suggest instead we *pay* American consumers to buy domestic vehicles. That immediately solves the problem of "depression era" sales. Since I first mentioned this idea, I expect 0.25% of the entire bailout cost of $35 billion

    Lessee here, carry the one .... move the zero ... um ... eight million, seven hundred and fifty thousand? I'm not very good at math after having a few drinks. Certified check, bank draft, money order, or cash only, please

    As far as shoveling billions of taxpayer dollars into large corporations, I suggest you look into the history of Crown Corporations here in Canada. In particular, the Export Development Corporation, Industry Canada, Canadian International Development Agency, and the Hibernia Management and Development Company

    A Crown Corp is legally exempt from audit. All the Auditor General can do is report the billions that flow in, where it fades into a gray mist of nothing.

    Companies like Bombardier have whined for decades about needing more "help" to be competitive. Well, here's a thought, Bombardier, why not cut out the waste, lavish fat-cat salaries, seemingly bizarre product decisions, and make products the entire world will line up to buy?

    Even better, Bombardier, how about paying back even a teeny tiny fraction of the billions of taxpayer dollars you received?

    Or how about HMDC pulling out the taxpayer teat on Exxon Mobil? When oil prices were at record highs, E-M laughed all the way to the bank as they operated the oil platform in the Grand Banks area. Now that oil prices have come down, HMDC legally guarantees to cover operating costs, so E-M can still laugh all the way to the bank

    What a deal! Let's have more Corporate Socialism! A huge oil company gets all of its expenses reimbursed whether oil prices are at a record high, or where they are right now. They *can't* lose!

    So I guess we are doomed to have Corporate Socialism due to the whiny threat of the end of the world as we know it. Why not just take off the Chevy Badge and slap on the Official Seal? That should work, we saw how well that worked in the former USSR
     
  16. dbermanmd

    dbermanmd New Member

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    here is a better idea,,, lets bail out only the UAW members and let all other Americans get fired and go on unemployment....

    brilliant. like the UAW is some special class of worker just because they all voted for and worked for and raised money for democrats and obama.

    should make for real good PR.
     
  17. dbermanmd

    dbermanmd New Member

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    stop fear mongering my friend... it wont be that bad if they just wake up now... it will be far worse if they take the money and then go belly up in 2010 or 2011.

    the game is over,,, the fat lady is singing,,, she starting singing about 20 years ago.
     
  18. dbermanmd

    dbermanmd New Member

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    i hate to say this buy you are correct,,, the only thing i will change is that people have been wising up to the big 3 for about 20 years,,,, it is just reaching critical mass now.
     
  19. dbermanmd

    dbermanmd New Member

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    i also look at resale value since i purchase my cars. i (me my wife and our kids own five cars, all foreign,, four toyotas one audi a 2000 A6-- to be replaced by the plug in prius around 2009-2010. i will not consider buying big 3 today if they get one more dime of my tax money... ever.
     
  20. malorn

    malorn Senior Member

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    So it is over for the US as we know it. You may think I am fear-mongering, but how do we recover from the loss of 3 million unreplaceable jobs overnight? What about when the transplants have to close because there are not enough parts? Do they switch production back overseas or do they build suppliers in the US to be good coprorate citizens? Our children will be citizens of a second world nation, and who knows about their children. That is what is at stake here.