US Big 3 ask for $34bn dollars...

You're the only person I know of who thinks a severe global recession is actually *funny* what the f*** is your particular malfunction?

I mean, seriously. Just returned from an overseas business trip. The mood in India, China/Hong Kong, Singapore, is pretty much doom and gloom. By "doom and gloom" I mean folks are ready to leap off tall building and bridges

So, yeah, a very severe global recession, maybe even tipping to a depression, I would have no doubt oil dropping under $20 a barrel due to collapse in demand. Likewise, gasoline in the US could drop under $1/gallon

This has already had a very immediate impact on energy security and self-sufficiency here in North America. The Tar Sands in Alberta is rapidly imploding, as the price per barrel is now below break-even. Some would say that is good, due to the emissions associated with Tar Sands. Fine, so be it

There is even a lot of proven oil reserves here in Manitoba, the SW corner of the province. Very difficult geological formations, very expensive to extract, the break-even is realistically +$60 a barrel. When oil was north of $100, there was a sudden boom of exploration and initial drilling ops. Now, it's all shut down and capped again

Back when oil was almost $150 a barrel, and gasoline +$4 a gallon, folks like Pickens had a lot of support and airtime. He brought up very good points: 2/3 of US oil requirements is imported, it's the largest transfer of wealth in human history, etc etc. All true.

Now that it's "cheap" to drive a lifted full size pickup again, guess what? Nobody gives one s*** about energy security and energy self-sufficiency.

A lot of folks are setting up the United States to be over a much larger barrel once the economy picks up again. I predict the US will import a far larger proportion of crude oil needs.

The UN's OECD and IMF are talking about late 2010 timeframe, possibly 2012. So once oil shoots up again, where does that leave the US?

Personally, if it was up to me, I would pass legislation forbidding the import of crude oil. It really is that critical of a security issue. However, despite the fact we have enough proven reserves to meet demand, it's really expensive.

So if you really want energy independence, expect to pay for it

By my way of thinking, you either pay the piper now, and get it over with, or pay ten times more in the future

 

You know how I feel abou twhat is happening, i don't think anyone knows the depth of what we are entering. Confidence is gone, debt is incredibly high, and credit is short, not a good combination for anyone.

Now is the time. The Us needs to formulate an industrial policy along with an energy policy to ensure the US has a manufacturing sector which is thriving and growing. The energy policy needs to make sure alternative energies are continued to be developed so by 2020 the US is energy independent.

 

Yes, that is already happening. I personally witness it every time I travel overseas on business.

So how exactly does it help to shovel more money into this black hole? This isn't even "real" money; by that, I mean it becomes a component of the national debt. The printing presses are cranked up

The proposed "bailout" is completely nice person-backwards. What good does it do to prop up an industrial sector if demand for their product has crashed due to global economics?

I've never believed in Socialism or Welfare, be it personal or corporate. Look at the monetary mess created in Canada by institutionalized corporate welfare: the Crown Corporations of Export Development Corp, Industry Canada, Hibernia Management and Development Corp, etc

If you believe in this bailout, or loan, or whatever the hell they're calling it, you are automatically a Socialist. In that case, just give every family $50,000 and let them rush out to buy a domestic vehicle. That actually makes more sense than propping up the Big Three to keep running.

The vehicles aren't selling, period. So what do we do now? Keep these assembly plants running, stockpile vehicles in giant warehouses?

 

I have a pretty good idea. I see it in person while overseas. I'm not trying to frighten you, but long story short: we're f*****. Deal with it

Look, we could be energy independent RIGHT NOW if we wanted to be. Just with proven domestic reserves of oil, shale, coal, etc.

Here's the catch: you would have to keep gas at least $4/gal to make it break even. I don't think anybody would want to put up with that, do you? Never mind the proven increase in emissions resulting from tar sands and domestic coal/oil production, but we can ignore that for now.

Everybody else does

I always hope for the best, but I plan for the worst. Hence, I always live "far" below my means. If we did that as a country, we wouldn't be in this cluster f*** right now

 

The time to deal with energy independence is not now, it was for the past 20 years. Now we get to enjoy the fruit of our stupidity, of our "right" to drive any gas guzzler we desire; to waste, to pollute as true americans, to live on debt, and to export our national wealth in return for oil.

America is still hoping this is all a bad dream, and GM welfare is going to solve our problems.

 

It is not a bad dream it is all too real. As a nation we can decide to just quit or we can retrench, refocus, sacrifice and rebuild.

 

Honestly if I could predict the gas market that well I would buy gas futures and the like... that's my way of saying no one can predict WHEN it would happen. However the price of gas getting lower? It was very foreseeable as the price of oil getting grossly high and having that bubble pop... just like the overly inflated housing market, the overly inflated stock market, the overly inflated dot-com markets... it doesn't take a genius to figure it won't last, especially when the price of oil was not based upon real-shortages.

Two of those three I'm saying won't happen the first and last. The depression bit, probably could go, but not in a 30's style of depression. We've had many parts of the country in a depression for a while now, whenever a big industry dries up because the world changes areas suffer (biggest example is the coal industry). I think much of the country has been in a recession for many years as well. But a depression for 10+ years ? Nah.

Which war? We've been in war already due to "Terrorists" or "WMDs" or whatever excuse you want to make. We went to war due to the depression? Sorry, my view of history and the facts are a bit skewed I guess, because I thought we went to war after the depression, and it was formally pushed due to the Japanese bombing Pearl Harbor... not we went to war because of the depression.

 

Says who? Hell I'm all about sacrificing the big 3, then having them rebuild, maybe becoming the big 2. But you seem to be saying the end of the world is going to happen if we don't just give them a bunch of money, what in their history has told you that by giving them a bunch of money they'll end up turning things around and making things right?

 

Says Malorn, who *sells* our national security and economic poison.
Your self-interest blinds you.

 

The financial structures post 1930's depression was supposed to prevent recurrences. I think this time around we will find that one unexpected side-effect is that slow mudslides are prevented, but we get rare calamitous earthquakes instead. It is really by design that companies like GM have been able to survive for years by pushing financial obligations into the future, or that the financial sector was able to hide trillions of losses for over a year.

 

We will have 10% unemployment by the end of Feb, I hope it does not get any worse. If detroit liquidates, what do you think will happen to the dow? What will unemployment get to?

As for World war II, the economic backdrop in the world was one of the main motivators. People with that have been humiliated, with little to eat and little hope can be lead almost anywhere.

 

Well yeah the fact we haven't been hit harder so far has been because of the shell game played with the "money" in our country so far. I think the mortgage bubble bursting and watching the DOW drop to 8000 was a prime example of that, not to say the drop is in any way bad, it shouldn't have been where it was.

As you mention, they hide and push stuff away... kind of like our countries own national debt.... then get surprised one day when the debt collectors show up and say "it's time to pay up"

 

The side-show is having folks like Malorn tell the debt collector to loan even more money, so that the debt payments can continue.

 

Again, if I could predict the DOW I'd play the market, but I'm not about to throw my money into a field that is simply fueled by speculation and how panicked people are.

As to unemployment, for there to be 10% unemployment, there is going to need to be 5 million more jobs lost AND those people need to still be looking for work (i.e. not just sitting on their butts, bitching about how their town was ruined because the automakers left...). The numbers I've seen say 1 in 10 jobs is "related" to the US automanufacturing, and that being a very loose relation, i.e. steel workers, glass makers, etc... so that means while some will lose their jobs, others won't, so everyone related to the auto manufacturing won't lose their jobs. Not to mention, I think quite a few people will swallow their pride, and take those crappy jobs you normally would be too proud to do... under paid... crappy work conditions.. etc. Plus the vacuum by something "that large" going away will get filled by other industries.

So overall, if they go bankrupt, I say 10% unemployment is a fair estimate, however it will not be much higher than that, and most likely will drop a bit as the "crap jobs" market starts to open up.

 

It will be near 10% if the auto industry is still operating, if its is not all bets are off. The losses after christmas will be staggering. Job losses will be roughly the same in December and close to 1 million in January.

 

Well, I'm sitting in my home office. Two of my computers are for work, the third one is a Vista Ultimate machine I built about two months ago. I have CTV Newsnet running on it, turned down low

It was just reported that in the US, job losses are the worst in 34 years. Further proof of a dramatically ramping global recession

They also had the head of the CAW whining about how - apparently - the job losses here at home appear to be a local problem, not related to what is happening globally.

Do these people even *try* to live in reality, or is it too difficult?

 

This is my third recession since I began in the auto business "professionally", and i have never seen anything even close to this. I was on the phone with my father and he said that the speed with which things are cycling down he has never seen either.

 

There needs to be 5 million jobs lost by February to get your 10% prediction to come true, and no one else can get jobs by then either.

 

Since they discovered bird flu they have been talking pandemic. Who would have know it would be a financial illness that raced around the world. Almost seems viral.

They are talking $1 gas. This is nuts. I think money is going to be tighter than they are letting on.
Return to $1 gas? Energy prices evaporate

Return to $1 gas? Energy prices evaporate - Yahoo! News

And JR says Detroit's Big Three automakers may not all survive their mounting troubles.

 

Ok I revise my prediction, whatever the unemploymet rate is with 1.8 milllion jobs lost(net) between now and the end of February.