Man Based Global Warming....

I alone purchase? Dumb.

I have stated no such goal..... and to assume I advocate such a goal is just.....well dumb.

Overall we are not do a "pretty good job," but we are improving.... 1 point for you.

Sorry to tire you by challenging a core belief. Your reaction to the "inconvenient truth" of AGW is your problem.

And there are policy solutions. Improving research and development funding levels into new technologies, ending perverse subsidies for major polluters, increasing carbon taxes and increasing government incentives for renewables can go a long way - all of which can be revenue neutral.

You assume that I don't spend money on the problem. Dumb.

 

As more follow-up to "Megan's Prius" post earlier of a study claimed by the press to show Antarctic warming, here is the article from BBC...

New evidence on Antarctic warming

The continent of Antarctica is warming up in step with the rest of the world, according to a new analysis.


...And here is the response from a meteorologist on the ground in Antarctica:

Eric [study author],
Let me first say that this is my own opinion and does not represent the agency I work for. I feel your study is absolutely wrong.
There are very few stations in Antarctica to begin with and only a hand full with 50 years of data. Satellite data is just approaching thirty years of available information. In my experience as a day to day forecaster that has to travel and do field work in Antarctica the summer seasons have been getting colder. In the late 1980s helicopters were used to take our personnel to Williams Field from McMurdo Station due to the annual receding of the Ross Ice Shelf, but in the past few years the thaw has been limited and vehicles can continue to make the transition and drive on the ice. One climate note to pass along is December 2006 was the coldest December ever for McMurdo Station. In a synoptic perspective the cooler sea surface temperatures have kept the maritime storms farther offshore in the summer season and the colder more dense air has rolled from the South Pole to the ice shelf.
There was a paper presented at the AMS Conference in New Orleans last year noting over 70% of the continent was cooling due to the ozone hole. We launch balloons into the stratosphere and the anticyclone that develops over the South Pole has been displaced and slow to establish itself over the past five seasons. The pattern in the troposphere has reflected this trend with more maritime (warmer) air around the Antarctic Peninsula which is also where most of the automated weather stations are located for West Antarctica which will give you the average warmer readings and skew the data for all of West Antarctica.
With statistics you can make numbers go to almost any conclusion you want. It saddens me to see members of the scientific community do this for media coverage.
Sincerely,
Ross Hays


Not surprisingly, Michael Mann, of "hockey stick" fame was involved in this study.

 

Here is my take on it all.
I believe the global warming thing but that has nothing to do with it.

I have a child, many on here and on this planet have a child, 2 children or even more.
A lot of people who don't have children will also have children in the future.
Most people hope to be grand parents one day, and have their genetic line continue.

In general we devote a lot of our energy and resources to raising children, we want them to have it better than we did.
Oil, gas, and coal are a finite resource, when they are gone there is no more. Well there will be a very slow regeneration but it can't hope to keep up with demand.
Energy from under ground is getting harder and harder to get out.

If we squander all the earth energy resources and our kids squander any that is left what will remain for their kids?
If we reduce our demand for energy we will extend the usefulness of the resource.
If we use renewable energy our kids will too.

Like buying school books for my son I try to reduce my impact on the earth for him, and his friends and their kids etc. I suspect I'll be gone before my contribution makes any difference. Doesn't mean I shouldn't do my best.

 

Of course it is!!

It's amazing, isn't it. With only less than a week from our regime change, the dastardly evils of Global Warming are already beginning to be solved. I predict in just a little less than four years we'll have this beat just as world leaders (with the good 'ole US of A leading the charge!!) did with that pesky ozone hole of past.

But don't let just one snowfall in a ancient region with thousands of years of history that has recorded only one snowfall before fool you, we must continue the fight against AGW, deniers, skeptics, those who have the audacity to question, oil and coal execs, ...!!

Rick
#4 2006
As I sit here in FL pondering the massive damage done to our orange juice crop during our last very rare hard freeze.

 

Ross Hays, by his own account, has been to the Antarctic in the summer...once or twice. He's a weatherman providing anecdotal evidence to counter a scientific study. By Hays' own words, his chief experience is sitting in an office drawing maps. So his work in the arctic is a recent development and his experience in that environment is slight. Hays is also a signer of the Inhofe petition, so his denialist stance is neither new nor specific to this study.

The study published their complete methods. If Mr. Hays has a real rebuttal to make, he should write, submit, and publish it. But anecdotes don't count as evidence.

And as one of the study authors noted on RealClimate (comment 80):

[Response: Yes, this guy wrote to me. Yet, it is offensive because it is a thinly-veiled accusation of scientific fraud. I’ve spent many seasons in Antarctica over the last 18 years. My personal anecdotal observations don’t bear on the science, and nor should Ross Hays’s. (For the record, last time I was there, it was much warmer than the first time I went, but that’s because I was at lower elevation!)–eric]
​

December 2, 2008, Ross Hayes blog:
After a couple of months I started attending a weekly meeting with the JobSeekers (CobbJobSeekersHomeFrame). They are a faith based group that meets every Tuesday at the Town Center Varsity. After many months of applications, interviews, and rejections. I got this job to work in the far corners of the earth forecating weather senarios to help get scientific balloons the size of the Superdome launched to the edge of space. It is quite an amazing experience and different direction than all those years sitting in an office drawing maps.

December 8, 2008, Ross Hayes blog:
After being in a comfort zone and set daily routine changing jobs can awaken you to a whole new direction. After 19
years with CNN and over 200 job applications I was given a job with the NASA Columbia Scientific Balloon Facility....My new job is almost an adventure. I never though I would be going to Antarctica or the Arctic for that matter. Last year I spend the southern summer in Antarctica


Hays himself describes his current job not as something specific to the arctic or the study of climate change, but something specific to forecasting short term weather for balloon launches, at a variety of places (New Mexico, etc.).

“My job is to forecast launch opportunities in the field, looking for light surface and low level winds. The bubble of a 40 million cubic foot balloon stands 900 ft. For example in Fort Sumner this morning we had surface winds from the northeast at 2 knots, but at 870 feet above ground the winds were from the northeast at 20 knots, thanks to running a pibal. We need those level winds to be 10 knots are less with a large balloon to launch.

“I hope this gives you an idea about our work and what I do. If any graduating student is interested and can forecast in the field, please have him or her contact us.

"...We also have a campaign in Antarctica every year . . . Last year was my first time to Antarctica."
​

 

What a load of crap. When I was a kid it seemed Florida got one of those EVERY FRIGGIN' YEAR!!! Geez, it was like clockwork.

 

Was the conversation getting too slow for you, d berman? What fun you must be having, sitting back and watching the show.

 

NPR Science Friday's had a discussion about the rising Antarctic temperatures:

Science Friday Archives: Antarctic Temperatures On the Rise

They go over the denialist misconceptions and how actual climatologists interpret their results.

 

Not hard freezes (upper 20's for three or more hours) in the vulnerable citrus, strawberry, and other cold sensitive crops areas like this last one. Most inland areas (and even some coastal areas) in mid to upper peninsula get frost for a few mornings most winters, but not damaging hard freezes.

But it is the hard freezes that significantly damage existing fruit and even kill citrus trees which require many years to mature to full profitable fruit production. Within the last 30 years or so (since the late 70's) we have had enough of these freezes to begin making orange tree farming unprofitable and too risky.

You are probably young and it is natural to have a distorted memory of childhood times. I remember as a child having great memories of the great blizzards in Chicago in the late 60's. But I doubt my parents had such memories...

Rick
#4 2006

 

This brings up an interesting point. Local flora and fauna, particularly food crops, are dependent on the climate, and are often unique to a certain area. If the climates change, where will we grow our food?

 

The climate is changing for sure as it has been for the last 4 billion years. I don't know about other crops, but with orange juice Brazil is more than ready to take up Florida's slack regarding worldwide orange juice production. With cooling trends in the last 30 years or so (we had a little relief in the 90's) growing oranges in Florida has become risky. New groves are a rare sight.

Humans will always have enough food to eat. And with advances in Genetically Modified crops, food can now be grown in areas where it was not profitable because of indigenous insects or weather conditions. Maybe the same will apply to oranges of the future too.

Rick
#4 2006
Wish someone should sneak into the hallway at IPCC and bump up the thermostat a little...

 

Yes, and it was 70°F in Chicago in November, and again in December.

Anecdotal local weather conditions prove exactly SQUAT about global climate.

 

real estate prices probably have something to do with that as well. Why grow oranges when you can sell out to a developer with deep pockets? It'll be interesting to see what happens now that FL real estate has gone pear shaped.

How much of that is the GMO's and how much is due to irrigation of lots of fertilizer? No doubt we'll need technological innovation... the rising number of people on this planet will probably require it. However, climate does have a huge impact on agriculture and if we are perturbing it we run a lot of risks. Will we have to desalinate massive amounts of water? Apply even more pesticides/fungicides? What about pollination issues? All of this could lead to food getting a lot more expensive. Then again, a 30-40% drop in caloric intake has been show to extend lifespan in laboratory rats...

As I've said here and elsewhere, there are so many poorly understood systems that our risk is very large. We just don't really know what the hell we're getting ourselves into. We're running a huge, uncontrolled experiment on the only home we've got.

 

Who needs measurements when we can rely on 40-year-old memories instead. Thanks for sharing.

 

Hell, it was almost 80F here in Denver last week. Today it was 9F when I left the house. That's more typical for Jan in Colorado. In the main, it's been a hot January, though the last few days have been much colder.

 

Ah yes, technology will save the day yet again. Funny how people who refuse to believe in the science of climate change have such faith in every other aspect of it. Why would we ever mortgage our future to Monsanto? And when, on a global basis, has everyone ever had enough to eat?

 

Yep, real estate prices AND lower priced labor for Brazilian juice production has also been a factor in reducing the Florida orange industry. But if you are trying to argue that the hard freezes of the last thirty years were not a significant factor, well you are just plain wrong.

Tripp, I always have read your posts and respected you balanced opinion. But now in addition to AGW, you seem to espouse the idea that Global Famine will strike as it was fear mongered decades ago. Two impending doom scenarios are too much for Chicken Little. Let's just keep the threat to AGW.

Rick
#4 2006

 

Never argued that the climate is changing. Just do not believe man is the cause...

If somehow you think the world could for one moment be completely free of famine, free of poverty, free of bloated corporations, free of overpaid executives, free of corrupt politicians... then you should start humming a little tune from John Lennon...

Rick
#4 2006

 

Uhhh...Rick...weren't you the one saying humanity would always have enough to eat?