Toyota's Sets PHEV Release Date

These figures are only for the US. A number of these vehicles are worldwide vehicles or are based on worldwide platforms with slightly different sheetmetal and features.
FJ Cruiser is based on the Prado in the rest of the world
4Runner is winding down now but it also sold throughout the rest of the world.

You bring up another major, major point. Currency issues. Early this year Toyota announced that it was cutting WAY back on vehicles exported from Japan to the US due to the weakened dollar. Scions, Yaris', 4Runners, LC's all except the Gen 3 Prius have been cut back to almost zero. It's going to get worse. For nearly the entire lives of the G1 and G2 Prius the JY:US$ rate ranged from 105 to 120 to $1. Now that rate is at 90 JY / US$ and it's falling. That's about 20% less revenue per vehicle. There is no incentive at all to build a very expensive vehicle in Japan and immediately lose money on it when the vehicle enters the US.

I don't think anyone said that the EVs and PHEV's would never be built, in fact they are. They'll be here soon. They will be available to the interested clientele probably as something like a Prius VI..the plug-in edition. It's there for those that want one, can afford one, can power it properly. It's just another option package just like the Advanced Technology package on the V.

But what the two previous statements from Toyota did say was that it now sees a way to make the FCHV's mass-marketable a lot quicker than previously believed. Toyota has its own infrastructure already in place to kick off this program.

This comes down to industrial cost accounting. With the development needed to bring the PHEV to market there has to be an expectation of a certain volume over a certain vehicle's lifetime. In order to amortize all the R&D costs involved in a new development. That period is normally 5-6 yrs and something in excess of 100,000 vehicles. If bringing the PHEVs to market costs $1 Billion then each of the first 100,000 units carries a Fixed Cost burden of $10,000!!! That's above and beyond what the additional Variable Costs are for actually buying/building/installing the Li-ions in the vehicle. Then there are the warranty costs.

Toyota is not Tesla. Toyota is a mass marketer of vehicles thus it needs huge volumes in order to recoup its investments without resorting to outrageously high prices.

Yes there are large numbers of very very wealthy buyers in NA. Only a small percentage of these however can be expected to step forward and pony up $40K - $50K for a small non-luxury vehicle.

I'm only going by what I've seen in various press reports. I don't think anyone has a good handle on what the pricing will be except that GM has floated the $40000 number and I saw one report that Toyota is looking at a price higher than that.

Now if Toyota comes in under $30K the PHEV Prius should be a huge winner. I doubt it. See the amortization figure above. I'd be shocked if the PHEV Prius is within $10000 to $15000 of the top trim gas/electric Prius.

Toyota already has a hydrogen fueling infrastructure in place if it wants to go this route.

 

FC vehicles still need a battery and a transaxle. FC vehicles are the same as a serial-hybrid, just substituting the small ICE generator with a FC. So your calculations are not correct.

$8k for an ICE is very generous as well. Cost for a typical ICE is less than half that - otherwise there's no way manufacturers would sell brand new cars for $10k.

What are you talking about? There are already standardized charge plugs. There are already plans to install thousands of fast charge outlets across the country with the launch of the Nissan Leaf. Your "drawback" is purely made up.

 

Toyota has plenty of factories in the US and Canada. Build it there, instead.

I think I already showed how Toyota produces a number of very low volume luxury vehicles (aka, Lexus LS Hybrid, starting at $107k)

I highly doubt that Toyota was able to amortize their costs with the first generation of the Prius - they were probably well into the 2nd gen Prius before that happened - also likely why the Gen II Prius ran 5+ years with only very minor updates. I would expect any PHEV or EV to be similar. Sure - it's a risk, but Toyota has more cash on hand than any other manufacturer.

 

In Nissan's own press releases on the Leaf it states that it expects the recharging to be done at home and take about 8 hrs .... for a 100 mi range. The 'quick charge' stations being discussed will be little more than emergency stops .. in order to get home.

It's NOT intended for those that live in inner cities, who park on the streets and need to plugin overnight.





With a 100 mi range the Leaf is no competitor to the Prius.

• charge over night, drive 100 mi, then hopefully
• find a quick charge point ( for 30 mins down time ), drive 60 miles, then hopefully
• find another quick charge point ( another 30 min ), drive 60 miles, then hopefully.......

It's a local commuter....and it's small. It's not a vehicle that you can drive from NY to Florida. You have no such problems with a 'traditional' Prius nor even an FCHV Prius.

The Leaf is a small city car exactly like what Toyota is planning

 

You're suggesting that Toyota market this as a Lexus in the same way that Tesla does at a price of $100K?

I agree that the intial R&D costs to build the first Prius and develop the THS took some time. But that's one reason why the THS/HSD was extended to the Highlander/RX/Kluger, the Estima and then the TCH these vehicles when added to the Prius volume allowed Toyota to amortize its costs over an ever wider base of units produced. The denominator of the fraction increased.

I agree that it probably took from the late 90's to 2004-2005 for volumes to reach large enough numbers to extinguish the R&D Fixed Costs. I'm pretty certain that in 2006 this was done. Notice that the prices have been coming down continually since then.

I don't think that they see 100K to 200K units of PHEV's being sold in a 5 to 6 yr period. At least that's what I'm reading from their statements. Not at this time anyway.

Then there's extraneous issues such as China and Bolivia ( rare earth elements and lithium ). http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/03/world/americas/03lithium.html

This now becomes very complex beyond just what a few consumers want.

 

Hi Dave:

Regarding your RAV4EV comments, I agree 100 percent. Very few, except those living in California, were even aware that commercially built on-the-road electric vehicles existed until after most of them were brought back from lease and destroyed. A few RAV4EVs managed to escape the slaughter and are now more valuable than when they were new.

Yes, the EV industry got side-tracked and progress was halted (deliberately) about 10 years ago. Now, I hope, they are back on track. Customers are waiting, and when Toyota comes up with a PHEV Prius, I will be there to buy one.

By the way, I'm getting a new QuickCharge onboard charger for my Zenn neighborhood electric vehicle (see the Zenn forum).

Jim

 

OK - but how is a FCV vehicle any different? Sure a FCV may have a larger range for now, but this is changing very rapidly.

Not to mention the costs of hydrogen fueling stations. Each station costs millions - while fast chargers only cost a fraction of that and slower chargers even more affordable.

100 miles is more than sufficient for the vast majority of driver's daily needs. No, it won't be enough for a lot of people (judging by how many people think they need a 3-ton SUV for their daily commute) - but it will be enough for a significant number.

Where do I fill up my FCHV Prius? Why would I want to pay 2-3x more for fuel? Why would I want to stop at a refueling station at a regular basis when I could refuel in the comfort of my home?

The Leaf is the perfect replacement for my Prius (OK, it'd replace my other, less efficient vehicle).

Toyota is going to be at least 2-3 years late to this party based on the concepts they've shown - and those concepts have been much smaller than the Leaf which is really not much smaller than the Prius and also seats 5. Unless you also consider the Prius a small city car.

That reports is largely hype and the media blowing things out of proportion as usual. There is plenty of lithium available from multiple sources around the world. And if those run out, you can mine it from the ocean at a very reasonable price as well. You don't have to use neodymium to build motors. Just look at the Tesla which uses an AC induction motor and no rare-earth magnets.

 

Agree definitely...if those drivers are willing to drive a very small vehicle simply for commuting.

What installations are all over NA right now in every major city, sometimes with several in large metro regions?

Toyota and Lexus dealerships!

Again I think that you're viewing this as an either/or situation. Toyota has the wherewithall to do both. But the reports seem to indicate that they are leaning toward the FCHV option as getting the most emphasis.

Actually I see our choices as being a smorgasbord of options during the next decade; 20th Century ICEs, traditional hybrids both mild and full; EVs, EREVs and PHEVs of differing capabilities and prices; FCHVs. All of these will be fed by another smorgasbord of fuel options from dino fuel to nat gas to wind to celluosic ethanol to butanol to algae-derived biodiesel to nuke/coal/nat gas/hydro-electric electricity.

IMO there will be no one-size-fits-all as there has been for the last 100+ years. Each of us will be able to choose which size fits us best based on our needs and budgets and personal preferences.

 

I was surprise to find out the ICE costs $8k MSRP ($6k discounted at Champion Toyota). People are more concern about the HV battery pack with $2.5k MSRP ($2k discounted) even though HV battery warranty is 3x longer than the ICE.

FCHV would need just a small HV battery (1.31 kWh) like in current Prius. It would cost much less than PHEV or EV battery pack (16-24 kWh like in Volt or Leaf).

FCHV will not need the MG1 (generator) nor Power Split Device but a more powerful MG2 (traction motor). Therefore there won't be a transaxle.

One thing I missed from my previous post is the hydrogen tank would be more expensive than the gas tank because it uses carbon fiber to reinforce the pressure.

As for the comment about Toyota being 2-3 years behind the competition.... Volt or Leaf will not be available in 2010 in small quantity (not mass produced). Toyota EV and Prius PHEV is said to mass produced in 2012. When will the Volt and Leaf be mass produced? Even for Tesla, will the model S be mass produced? I don't remember reading the projected production number.

I am not against PHEV or EV. I am not pro FCHV as well. I only have open mind and see FC being closer to reality than most people. I totally agree with Toyota's approach. They are positioning EV for short distance and FCHV for long distance vehicles.

 

EXCELLENT post drees :rockon: I think your responses are spot on!

 

Again - EV != small. Unless you consider the Prius small.

Good to know, but hardly convenient when I can charge up in my garage every night.

I'm not against FCHV (they are better than gas/diesel, after all and do appear to make more sense for long-haul transport) - I'm just sceptical that they will in fact be ready for mass production and affordable by 2015. They've been saying that for years. And nevermind the efficiency benefits of EVs over FCs.

Maybe the way to go is medium range (~100mi) EV for daily driving and FC range extender on a small, light trailer rented for long range driving to keep the battery topped off.

 

No thanks. I hear enough BS from GM to last me the marketing departments of all the other auto manufacturers combined.

In the Prius, Toyota proved itself capable of taking risks to reach the bounds of mass market possible/probable. Not less, not more. I hope they ccntinue.

 

I have heard GM's claims all over the GM boards. They do love to trumpet that stat....however.

$40000 per vehicle....that 80% of drivers who might be potential new buyers shrinks dramatically, maybe by as much as 90% leaving 7% who can actually afford a $40000 - $50000 vehicle and can actually qualify under today's new tougher lending rules.

Then the remaining 7% of drivers that do qualify for $40000+ must want to buy an EV vehicle for commuting. Based on current stats on hybrid sales that means that about 50% of those remaining might consider one.



Then of the remaining 50%, this is key, the buyer has to be able to use it as it's intended to be used. Who would not be able to use it?

• live on the 47th floor of a high rise in Manhattan and park on the street?
• commute 50 miles every day - by train - from the CT suburbs to lower Manhattan?
• live in rough sections where you can't 'secure' your vehicle at home every night in order to plug it in?
• live in a nice neighborhood of condo's and co-op's and townhomes but without charging facilities in the parking lots?

That remaining 50% shrinks further and further. It comes down to well-to-do suburbanites that have their own homes and drive to their jobs in their local areas. That's it.

GM is basing it's hopes on a dream that it's customer base will suddenly turn green by dumping their Suburbans, Escalades and Silverado's for a $40000 four-seater commuter car. Suuure, I can see that group doing that. Or they expect that the rest of the population ( who are currently not GM customers ) will suddenly flock to the local Chevy store to plunk down 40 Grand + TTF in order to test GM's commitment to the technology of the future. Seriously? Maybe by late next decade.

 

I'd think you'd be surprised at how large that market is. I'm sure someone can dig up that number.

The average household has 2.28 vehicles - and 30% of households have more than 3 cars. Surely at least one of those vehicles would be a good candidate to be a city vehicle?

 

That $40000 number is GM's own estimate of the MSRP on the Volt..+ Tax, Tags and Fees. In some states that's going to approach $44000 Out-the-Door. In the article I quoted above Toyota itself stated that the pricing of the Li-Ions is going to be high, very high, and not likely to be brought down to the levels of most buyers for a long time to come. That jives with what GM is saying over on the GM boards.

$40000 - $50000 is a realistic estimate for the Li-Ion EREVs and PHEVs.

Then none of the makers is willing to commit to any warranty at this point in time. Nothing.

That $7500 Tax Credit is illusionary as many here found with the Prius Tax Credit. If you are subject to AMT you probably will lose the entire credit. Who is most likely to be subject to the AMT?....the well-to-do....those who can actually afford to spend $40000+ on a commuter.

Uncle Sam giveth with one hand and taketh with the other.

But even if a buyer does qualify to get the max $7500 Tax Credit he or she must still qualify for a loan of $40000 to $50000 because the bank doesn't care one bit about the credit.

 

GM has said that their batteries are costing hundreds less than $1000/kWh. Let's assume $700. That's about $11k for a 16kWh pack in the Volt. Pack half that size for a reasonable 15-20mi EV range in the Prius will add $5-6k.

Yeah - it's going to take some time to make that affordable to the masses ($1.7k according to the earlier survey) but you have to start somewhere.

The Nissan Leaf is targeting pricing comparable to other typical family sedan. They have got to be aiming for a $20-$30k price range - there aren't any typical family sedans over that.