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Today's WSJ - Toyota says hybrids don't make sense!

Discussion in 'Gen 2 Prius Main Forum' started by kirbinster, Jul 13, 2005.

  1. kirbinster

    kirbinster Member

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    In today's Wall Street Journal Kattsuaki Watanabe who became president of Toyota last moth says that hybrids don't make economic sense:

    "Mr. Watanabe concedes that the better gas mileage doesn\'t provide enough savings, over the life of a car, for consumers to earn back the extra cost of $4,000 to $5,000 above a nonhybrid model. Gas just isn\'t costly enough for hybrids to make sense economically."

    Not my opinion - please don't attack me - this is what Toyota is saying.
     
  2. Mystery Squid

    Mystery Squid Junior Member

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  3. efusco

    efusco Moderator Emeritus
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    This isn't news. And Toyota's never claimed otherwise. It's about saving gas. It's about lower emissions. It's about a better vehicle.

    No one will be mad at you or anyone else, anyone who's crunched the numbers has found the same thing.

    But the same logic extends to other cars too. Imagine we'll ever see a headline "Sports Cars Don't Make Sense":Speed limits are 70mph and traffic won't let you go faster. I don't think so....

    Or
    "SUVs don't make sense: It's cheaper to rent the utility vehicle you need for those rare occasions and money saved on gas for your family car can be used for child's education"

    Ain't gonna happen. People have very narrowly begun to think of hybrids as gas saving vehicles and then they twist that into saving on gas saves on money and that that money saved is the reason to buy. It isn't--it's the saving of gas itself that is the goal along with emissions that is the goal. If the premium in cost isn't worth that 'feature' then you're better off going with another, more economical, car.
     
  4. kirbinster

    kirbinster Member

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    I just thought it was an interesting comment for the "chief marketing officer" aka president to make. Especially since it is not really that true in many cases. Take my case where we are using the Prius rather than the gas guzzling SUV. At 14,000 miles per year at 45mpg versus 15 mpg we will save 622 gallons of gas a year. At $2.25 a gallon that comes out to $1,400 saved a year. Using the $4,000 price premium number that comes out to a payback of just 2.86 years!!! That makes economic sense to me.

    The numbers make even more sense to me because I bought my barely used '02 Prius with 7,200 miles on it for just over $16K.
     
  5. mikepaul

    mikepaul Senior Member

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    Perhaps the Japanese tradition is a new car every 2 years?...
     
  6. skruse

    skruse Senior Member

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    The WSJ is "correct" hybrids do not make sense, if you only think short-term. I try to model what I teach - long-term thinking and minimal emissions. Front passengers are always amazed at the MFD feedback on fuel economy. I've decreased my dependence on oil and look forward to being able to plug-in to further decrease my use of oil.

    Okay WSJ, want to double your profit?! Then double your efficiency - in a hybrid and throughout the rest of your life.
     
  7. Marlin

    Marlin New Member

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    My prius is the fourth car that I've owned. The first car was a Chevy Celebrity station wagon that I got from my mother when I was in college. I replaced it at 198,000 miles with a Ford Explorer. I subsequently replaced the Ford explorer 12 years later at 196,000 miles and bought my Prius. In between all that, I got married and immediately replaced my wife's crappy LeBaron with a Chevy Malibu. It currently has 112,000 miles on it after 7 years and I intend to keep it another 3 years or so until it has at least 180,000 miles on it.

    I intend to keep my Prius as long as I've kept my other cars. I also expect gas prices to continue to rise.

    Over the lifetime of my prius, I will most certainly at least break even, and I expect to come out well ahead.
     
  8. Jared

    Jared Member

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    I have no doubt that the Prius is worth the extra money. Gas is currently $2.55 in New York. I drive about 25,000 miles per year, which means I burn about 500 gallons of gas at 50 miles per gallon, for an annual gas cost of $1, 275. If I drove a camry, which is similar in interior size and comfort, I would burn about 1,000 gallons at 25 miles per gallon, for a cost of $2,550. So I am already saving $1,275 per year. I intend to keep the Prius at least 10 years, for a saving of $12,750 dollars in fuel costs. Now I fully expect gas prices to rise over 10 years, perhaps to $5.00 per gallon or more. In that case, I will save much more than $12,750 I am not great at math, but even I can figure out the the Prius makes economic sense.
     
  9. ltu1542hvy

    ltu1542hvy New Member

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    Even though crunching the numbers yielded that I should at least break even in recouping the extra cost for the hybrid technology over the lifetime of the car, I am with Evan on this one. Saving money is not the point of this car - reducing emissions, saving gas, and reducing our dependence on oil is, along with all of the environmental benefits that this entails. Any financial advantage I consider to be a fortuitous side effect.

    - Bill
     
  10. Jared

    Jared Member

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    Personally, I think a car's sole function is to transform energy into motion. The more effeciently a car does that, the better the car.
     
  11. mikepaul

    mikepaul Senior Member

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    Let's say the car holds up nicely until the battery fails, somewhere after 150,000 miles. Unless a new battery is under $500 by that time, I may bail for a new Prius. The current $6,000 will be hard to justify on an 8-or-more-year-old car...
     
  12. kirbinster

    kirbinster Member

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    I would think by that time there would be (sorry to say) enough crashed Prius' in the junk yard that there should be a good market for cheaper used batteries for a used Prius - just an idea.
     
  13. Porridge

    Porridge New Member

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    As a Brit working and living here in the US, I thought I might jump in with a difference in culture, indicated indirectly here.

    In the US, people tend to keep their cars much longer, to the point they fall apart. In the UK, company cars are rotated every 2 to 3 years. For private owners, this is often the case as well. In Japan, if it has a scratch on it, time to replace it. Very much the consumer society.

    This may go a little way to explain the success of the Prius in the US compared to other countries. Holding onto the car for more than 3 years will pay back the initial premium for purchasing a hybrid.

    Of course, GM and Ford are helping the sales of Prius by making the pay back on gas savings attractive. SUVs which struggle to get 10 MPG creates huge savings in gas compared to a Prius 48 MPG. Compare that to normal vehicles sold in other countries that achieve 30 MPG, the math is not so attractive.

    It is clear our nation is reliant upon big foreign oil. More and more of our imports come from overseas." G.W. Bush --Beaverton, Ore., Sep. 25, 2000
     
  14. timyr6

    timyr6 New Member

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    I think the Prius is a step in the direction that the planet needs to survive, if pres. GW Bush doesn't think the Kyoto Treaty is important enough to bring the US into, then maybe we as a people can do our own part to reduce emissions and green house gasses.
     
  15. kirbinster

    kirbinster Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(timyr6\";p=\"107040)</div>
    The rest of the world does not think Kyoto is important enough for if they did they would do so with or without the US. What are they waiting for -- I guess they don't want to kill their economies unless we do too!
     
  16. prius04

    prius04 New Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(kirbinster\";p=\"107048)</div>
    So the USA, instead of "killing it's economy" is killing it's youth. 1758 so far. And Iraqi dead number between 20,000 and 100,000. And that remarkable "coalition of the willing"? About 190.

    But if you think about it, this is an interesting argument by kirbinster. Justify American lack of leadership by pointing to the worlds lack of leadership.

    There was a time when the world could look to the USA for leadership for things like this. Instead, THEY will come up with the solutions --like the Prius -- and leave the USA fighting to protect oil fields and profit margins.
     
  17. kirbinster

    kirbinster Member

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    Come on Prius04 do you really want to open that bag of worms. You want the US to lead the world but then you attack it for doing so. Many hate us because we try to lead. The point I was trying to make is the rest of the world is a bunch of hypocrits to cry that we need this Kyoto agreement but are too big a bunch of chickens to do it without the US. There is nothing stoping them from acting on their convictions.

    Again, the only solutions are those that are win-win. I made the point in another post that here in NJ the state has introduced the best incentive plan in the country to get people to install solar power generation. I have a 10KW system which produces about 15,000 KWH a year that the state paid 70% of the cost for. They get the funds for this by having a tiny "tax" on every kwh of purchased power. That way those that choose not to self-generate pay a slight penalty and those that do get a huge bonus - a perfect system.
     
  18. tstreet

    tstreet New Member

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    For me, Prius represents the best balance between gas mileage, performance, room, luxury, and emissions. Period. Discussions about whether it is worth it to supposedly pay a few extra thousand dollars for this balance mean nothing to me. Toyota is expected to produce 500,000 hybrids next year. The President of Toyota should be fired for his stupid comments, unless they were taken out of context. Given the WSJ's bias, that's entirely possible. Concede away, put put the whole issue in perspective.

    Besides, over time, it is reasonable to conclude that the differential will decrease as production increases and efficiency of production increases.

    I don't mind spending a few extra bucks for the planet.
     
  19. desertjedi

    desertjedi New Member

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    This reminds me of when Bill Gates said that computers would never need more than 640K of RAM.

    Innovation always has its naysayers. Hearing it from the president of the company doing the innovation is beyond bizarre and seems to be at complete odds with their attempts to market and sell the Prius.

    IMHO, alot of mfrs. and buyers are going to start jumping on the bandwagon (NYC taxis for example). * picture a huge, slowly rolling snowball * We may even start to see some government mandates in countries that are serious about pollution reduction concerning the use of hybrids - I wouldn't be surprised.
     
  20. kirbinster

    kirbinster Member

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    EXACTLY my point, that is why I called their president the Chief Marketing Officer! If I was the CEO/Chairman I would fire his sorry nice person!

    As to NYC taxi drivers and Prius's I don't know. The way they drive I don't think they would do much over 18 mpg even in a Prius. Their goal is to floor the car for the first 80% of a block and then slam on the brakes the last 20% of the block at the next traffic light. It would be interesting though.