Nissan Leaf vs Prius

You are most welcome.

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fk1ceWinU-E&feature=fvw]Mistaking Motion for Progress[/ame]

 

No, not confused. Just tried to run everything together.

Meant to say - Decrease in capacity after 3-5 years of use, and then, when it's cold, and the battery is being drained by having to resitively heat the car, the range drops to well below the ideal range of 100 miles.

The point being - people will initially buy this car with the expactation that they will get 50-100 mile range. For many, that will fit their commuting requirments. BUT, after the capacity drops, and high energy demands are put on the battery (such as in the Winter), the range is not going to be 100 miles, and maybe not even 50 miles.

So you are a mind reader and analyst now?

As an engineer, I'll trust my own knowledge and calculations. That said, I suspect I know a LOT more about battery technology than you.

 

I'm sorry, but I'm simply NOT going to believe anyone's forecast for 10 years from now. Been burned too many times believing such longterm forecasts - no matter what the forecase is on. Too may variables.

 

LOL. Economy of scale works great (in lowering prices) if one is not limited by the resource needed to manufacture whatever it is you are manufacturing.

The "reality is" - Replacement cost for just the battery on the Leaf is over $10K.

The "reality is" - Prices will remain high, in the time frame most Leaf owners will need to replace their battery.

 

LOL. And just how long do you think folks have been actively research to improve the Lithium chemistry/batteries.

More likely you will see a Lithium substitute in batteries. What that will be, or when that will be, or what the price will be...is anybody's guess?

 

Lithium is not particularly rare- 230 billion metric tonnes or about 500 trillion pounds in seawater. If the demand is there, the supply will increase.

So, if you're worried about the battery- lease the LEAF.

 

bigdog would not be caught dead in a Leaf, how would that look to his employor, who is paying him to spread FUD here?

 

Since you refuse to believe any forecast, what possible method are you using to 'know' that lithium will increase in price? Ouija board? Entrails of a goat? Time travel? The voices in your head tell you?

Mere experts and past performance are not interesting to you, I wait with bated breath (but not baited breath) for your source of infallibility.

 

FUD? Hardly.

The USGS would say something different. Ever heard of them? LOL.

Keep telling yourselves (collectively) there will be no Li shortage/battery cost issues, etc. We have a saying where I use to work - "It's not a lie if you believe it to be true". So keep telling yourselves there is no problem, and there won't be any problems. You might actually believe your lie, if you say it long and loud enough. LOL.

While I may someday own a Leaf myself, I'm NOT foolish enough (like some of you), to believe there won't be important issues/problems down the road. As such, I think I'll sit on the sideline waiting for all these issues to unfold, and perhaps, eventually get resolved? Who knows? But in the meantime, I have zero intention of wanting to be the first on my block to find out what these problems might be? I'll leave that to you fools.

Minerals at Risk and for Emerging Technologies

07-Apr-2010@14:04

"Mineral suppliers are not able to expand output, through discovery and development of new mines and expansion of existing mines, at a rate that can satisfy demand. Likewise, new technologies for increasing energy efficiency, sequestering and reducing carbon dioxide emissions, and for improving telecommunications and computer networks will require extensive use of certain minerals and metals, generally recovered as byproducts of other mineral production, at rates well above traditional levels of supply. Examples include lithium for a new generation of hybrid car batteries and tellurium for solar power cells. With the variety of new technologies being pursued, investors and consumers need to be aware of any potential short- and long-term impediments to the supply of necessary mineral raw materials. In the case of lithium, rising lithium prices would, over the long run, signal to the market the relative scarcity of lithium, but this process could be shortcut by a sober assessment of known resources and prospects for adding to those resources - an assessment that might lead to a shift to a battery technology that uses more abundant resources."



...pretty much what I've been saying all along. But hey, why believe the USGS. Potentially no scarcity? What a vivid imagination you all have.

Enjoy all the forecasts and predictions coming form organizations/companies that indirectly, or directly have a VESTED interest in predicting a rosy future.

On that note, I'm done. This topic has been beaten to death, and there really is nothing more to add. Believe what you want. I'll continue to drive my G3 Prius for many years to come with no worries that my battery might fail, or that my capacity has dropped so much, that I may not make it back home from work.

But rest assured - I'll be sure to waive as I drive by all the Leaf's I see along the side of the road waiting for a tow back to where they can "charge up".

Keep it real, homies! :rockon:

 

I hope your BO (Big Oil) buddies paid you enough to spread your FUD here, none of us believe it, and we are all signing up for the Leaf $99 reservations, and tommorow we will plunk down our deposits to secure our place in line.

Good luck with the spreading of the FUD.

oh yeah, here is a small PDF about some testing that was done on some A123 LiIo cells, showing they have about a 15 year life (5400 cycles), and at the end of that life they are still holding %80 of their charge.

 

I have done extended research of lithium batteries for life expectancy and performance characteristics. The mean time of shelve life is about 3 years. By definition, 50% of lithium batteries will need replacement after 3 years of usage.

If the Leaf battery's manufacturing cost is $10K with $150 of lithium in it, even the cost of lithium drop to $50, it will not make a dent to the $10K price.

 

wow, if that where true, Nissan will take a huge hit, since the battery is supposed to have a 60 month warranty. Look at the study I posted above. 5400 cycles (15 year life), down to %80 capacity.

 

The figure of 4 billion plus pounds of lithium or 400 million LEAF batteries did come from the very same USGS. Obviously, that is insufficient to replace all ICE vehicles on the planet with electric vehicles. But its a good start. I believe they are providing a reasonable, conservative assessment as they should.

I'm perfectly happy with my Prius as a stopgap until electric vehicles take over. But I always saw it as a bridge to an electric future. It may be a century or half a century. I doubt I see it in my lifetime. But battery technology WILL improve.

 

I still have no confirmed source about the Leaf's warranty period.
I have posted the warranty period question on the Leaf's web site and got no reply.
If it is 5 years, then Nissan is taken a risk to introduce the Leaf.

 

Nissan claims the laminated lithium ion will last 5-10 years. If you think that may be self-interesting exaggeration, then the 3 year lease on the LEAF should work just fine for you.