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Relax everyone - new NASA study says double CO2 no big deal

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by TimBikes, Dec 9, 2010.

  1. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    THe referenced research is in GRL so it will take more than a moment for me to grab a copy. If anyone is curious to read it let me know.

    Back from an internet-free zone! it was very ... peaceful

    AFAIK so far, the Arsenic-y bacteria from the sediments of Mono Lake (still) use P for lots of things. The As is just (oddly) used to fasten the rungs on the DNA ladder. Much more on that later as well, but it will be hard to connect to climate change etc.
     
  2. KK6PD

    KK6PD _ . _ . / _ _ . _

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    No mate, but that's an interesting scenario, 12/21/2012 is supposedly the date the Mayan calendar ends thus signifying the "End of Days". '
    Just how exactly is up to what you read, a Comet crashing into the planet, the Planetary Alignment is such, that massive earthquakes rock the world, Yellowstone blows and puts the planet into "Nuclear Winter" for years....you get the idea!
    Google it, you will be amazed at what people come up with[​IMG]
     
  3. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    biologists at some leading universities are questioning the science and claiming the experiments were done improperly. more to come i suppose.
     
  4. mainerinexile

    mainerinexile No longer in exile!

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    Remember peak oil? There isn't enough fossil fuel on the planet to get us to doubled CO2. But if we keep cutting down rainforests and paving giant mall parking lots, we CAN get real climate change...
     
  5. TimBikes

    TimBikes New Member

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    You are a LIAR.

    Here is an example of what I have said nearly a year and a half ago in an EPA CO2 Endangerment discussion.

    "In my view, CO2 can cause some warming - I have never said it could not. My argument is the effect is very likely highly overstated (certainly by the media) and climate models are highly unreliable in their predictive skill in any case. "


    I've said the same in many, many other discussions here and will say it again now. I believe anthropogenic CO2 can cause some degree of warming but:
    1) as has been well-documented, surface temperature records are overstating the degree of actual warming
    2) satellite records, while showing some warming, do not correlate neatly with rising CO2 causing large amounts of warming (for instance, for the nearly 20 year period from 1979 - 1997 they show very little warming - something like 0.2 C per century if I recall correctly)
    3) there are probably many more important mechanisms at work (cyclical mechanisms not well understood, as evidenced by AMO & PDO which correlate much better with temperature changes than does CO2)
    4) that said, CO2 likely is contributing to some degree of warming but the effect is probably not very large - certainly not likely to be catastrophic as climate models, whose predictive skill is highly questionable, would suggest
     
  6. icarus

    icarus Senior Member

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    5: Even if AGW is real, we don't want any government controlled intrusion in the solution, as it will come in the form of "government control" and increase taxes, which we don't wish to pay, even though we are off loading our energy/environmental choices onto future generations.
     
  7. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    Sophistry at this stage of the game, troll ?

    You jump from solar flares to volcanoes to 100 other discredited notions to explain why CO2 is not the crux of GW -- at least when you are not arguing that the earth is not warming at all.

    And you post statements like this
    that put you square in the camp of loonies.

    I'm afraid being called a liar by a loony troll just does not matter to me. Try to find someone who takes you at all seriously to insult. It will not be this forum to be sure.
     
    1 person likes this.
  8. TimBikes

    TimBikes New Member

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    In point of fact, there is a lot of sloppy science going on with IPCC etc. I mean come on, sourcing info from the World Wildlife Fund? East Anglia conveniently loses all the data? Michael Mann et al evade FOI requests? Sloppy, corrupt science. So you're still a liar. You and Fibber - who I haven't seen posting here lately. Soulmates. Liars both of you.

    Why don't you address what the study has to say? Minimal warming from CO2. No catastrophe here. Why does that make you get your panties in such a bunch? Shouldn't you be happy? The planet is saved. :rockon:
     
  9. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    Again, why don't you point out where the study says this? I still don't see that in the NASA press release.
     
  10. TimBikes

    TimBikes New Member

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    1.6 C with a doubling of CO2 over CURRENT (not pre-industrial) levels? And 0.3 lower on land. Doesn't sound like much a problem to me. But if you are worried about that small amount of temp. increase then we will just have to disagree. I'm not.
     
  11. DaveinOlyWA

    DaveinOlyWA 3rd Time was Solariffic!!

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    i posted this on my FB page when it came out. i am shocked that NASA posed this in the first place especially when its based on conjecture. yes, i can agree that certain aspects of GCC will cause the Earth to be cooler than it is now, but to say that change will not significantly affect our lives is presumptuous at best and completely irresponsible at worst.

    the article fuels the debate and provides momentum for the wrong side. it also ignores other ramifications of increased CO2. we still dont know what could happen in the plant and microbe world. there is still the potential that a microbe that is currently a nuisance and easy to control could flourish in a higher CO2 environment and wreak havoc on our food chain.

    all in all, i am simply shocked that NASA proposed such a one sided article.
     
  12. icarus

    icarus Senior Member

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    Do you have the slightest idea of what the potential effect of even 1.6 average temp increase is likely to to in the high latitudes? Especially to the permafrost?

    Jeeze,, get a clue through that right wing head of yours!

    Icarus
     
  13. TimBikes

    TimBikes New Member

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    No - tell me. And it is 1.3 over land. Show me the peer reviewed study that demonstrates the consequences and also one that shows the probability of a co2 doubling from current levels vs. pre-industrial that most other studies use. I am open to it - it could be problematic - but I think that kind of increase is not normally equated with catastrophic consequences.
     
  14. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Everybody talks about the weather but no one does anything about it. :D

    Then again cancun failed, and it was destined to fail. Because of CO2 limits a government in Norway fell, and they decided to continue to import coal electricity instead of build a cleaner NG power plant, as the cleaner plant would be counted against their co2 goal.

    If you watched that inconvient movie, and believed some of the doom and gloom, we should be having disasters befall us at a much greater rate. The question is how much will minor kyoto reductions really make? Follow the models and small changes as per the conferences will not change warming much. In texas there are more trees than in the 1800s, but the paving of the world is also part of AGW. Simply cutting CO2 a little bit in US while china and india take up the slack won't avert disaster if they were coming, or lack of this will not cause disasters if they were not.

    In a side note, GE this week became a little browner, buying a oil company with big exposure to developing markets. Without cancun the bet on "ecomagination" and green power is being hedged with brown power. More co2 is making Europe colder and will cause other problems, but we need real solutions and exaggeration gets in the way.
     
  15. icarus

    icarus Senior Member

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    For starters permafrost generally lives on the edge of temperature curves, a bit of warming or a bit of cooling has a significant effect. The biggest issue with permafrost melting is the uncontrolled release of CO2 that is trapped in the ice leading to a feed back loop. Please note that given the greater effect in higher latitudes, the difference between 1.5C world average is likely to be higher at higher latitudes. Please not the consequences of a 2.0C rise effect on permafrost!


    For a comprehensive list of learned works if you are genuinely interested in not being a troll!

    effect of temperature rise on permafrost - Google Scholar
     
  16. markderail

    markderail I do 45 mins @ 3200 PSI

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  17. DaveinOlyWA

    DaveinOlyWA 3rd Time was Solariffic!!

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    Uncontrollable release of what??

    Oh u said CH4!!

    Sorry misunderstood u there for a sec
     
  18. TimBikes

    TimBikes New Member

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    You are talking 2 degree C rise, I am talking about this study which says 1.3 C rise on land.

    Regardless, empirical data is not supportive of your claim permafrost claim either. Blok et al. note:
    “Global temperature data show that the mean annual air temperature in northeast Siberia increased by 1.5–2°C between 2001 and 2007, compared with the 1951–1980 average. This is much higher than the observed 0.5°C average global surface temperature rise during this period. Permafrost temperature records, however, do not show a general warming trend during the last decade, despite large increases in surface air temperature. Data from several Siberian Arctic permafrost stations do not show a discernible trend between 1991 and 2000. Our results suggest that an expansion of deciduous shrubs in the Arctic triggered by climate warming may buffer permafrost from warming resulting from higher air temperatures.â€

    Blok, D., M.M.P.D. Heijmans, G. Schaepman-Strub, A.V. Kononov, T.C. Maximov, and F. Berendse. 2010. Shrub expansion may reduce summer permafrost thaw in Siberian tundra. Global Change Biology, 16, 1296–1305.:

    So it still needs to be demonstrated that CO2 will double from here - which is well above the normal IPCC assumption of a doubling from the pre-industrial value. And it needs to be demonstrated that +1.3 C on land is catastrophic - which again - I argue it is not.
     
  19. TimBikes

    TimBikes New Member

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    You can also see an evaluation of the permafrost media hype here:

    “Methane levels may see 'runaway' rise, scientists warn - A rapid acceleration may have begun in levels of a gas far more harmful than CO2" By Michael McCarthy, Environment Editor, The Independent, Monday, 22 February 2010

    And the scientists' conclusions on page 10:
    "Claims about hydrates and PF [Perma Frost] exaggerated:
    – Arctic emissions lower than 20 years ago
    – Arctic emissions likely to increase, but slowly"
     
  20. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Concerning high latitudes, the Tarnocai et al. 2009 paper might well have received far more attention. Message there was that the soil organic carbon stores appear to be much larger than earlier estimates. So the question is will those soils 'melt' and how. The best news I've read lately is that drying up thataway will slow microbial activity (read CO2 and CH4 outgassing), despite anticipated higher temperatures. OTOH, drying would increase fire frequency, which means CO2 not CH4 outgassing. On balance that would probably be a good thing. Presuming of course that we as a civilization take no interest in limiting CO2 emissions (the current pattern).

    I suppose it will be a real horserace at high latitudes, in terms of infrared absorptive gases. The first study referenced here does not ( I think) help us to anticipate what may occur there.

    For those interested, see if you can access the penulitimate issue of Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. Those papers set aside the generic 2 degrees C increase (because Co2 emissions 'as usual' could take us fbeyond that) and examined a 4oC warmer world. Bummer warning: it's a bummer.