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Buy New or Used?

Discussion in 'Gen 2 Prius Main Forum' started by D53, Jan 12, 2011.

  1. D53

    D53 Junior Member

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    I'm considering buying my first Prius this year and am trying to determine whether I would be better off financially, in the long run, buying new or used. I've built an Excel spreadsheet to help me but I need your help with it.

    I tend to pay cash or pay off my cars within 1 year, so I am not taking interest rates into account.

    LIFE EXPECTANCY: I also normally own a car until it dies. My current 1997 Toyota Corolla has approx. 283,000 miles on it. Therefore, I am assuming a 300,000 mile life expectancy. Is this reasonable?

    AVERAGE MILES DRIVEN PER YEAR: Between 2002 and 2010, I have averaged 30,761 miles per year. I don't expect this number to change.

    BATTERY REPLACEMENT COST: My understanding is that the NiMh battery will last approximately 200,000 miles and costs $3,000 to replace. Therefore, I assume I will replace the battery once during ownership of the vehicle. Do these numbers seem reasonable?

    DEFERRED MAINTENANCE/REPAIR COST: This is what I really need help with from you all. I haven't had a lot of problems with my Toyota Corolla; however, I have spent some money on it over the years with things like a water pump going out, etc. Owning a car for 300,000 miles will eventually result in some repair costs. For the Prius, I am currently estimating this as $4,000 over life of the car. I understand that the 2010 models are expected to have lower maintenance costs, so I assume $3,000 for 2010/11 models. Also, I assume that, for used cars, all of the maintenance costs have been deferred. Therefore, regardless of the year of the used car, I assume the full $4,000/$3,000 maintenance cost. Do you think these numbers are reasonable?

    The key column on the spreadsheet is average annual cost. Currently, the spreadsheet suggests that "cheapest" avearge annual cost seems to be cars from the 2008 model year costing around $14,000 with around 45,000 miles on them.

    Also, I'm pretty sure I want the navigation package, so I am limiting my Prius choices to those with the navigation package. Also, I am limiting my model years to no later than 2007. Whether the car is a 2007 or a 2011, I assume they will all make it to 300,000 miles.

    Any insights you can provide will be appreciated.
     
  2. macmaster05

    macmaster05 Senor Member

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    Your expectations sound reasonable, but it all depends on your budget.

    If you could afford $18k-23k, I would buy a used 2010 model with low miles, which most likely will be a dealership loaner or someone who changed their mind. They're out there, you just gotta look. It'll save you at least ~$2k-3k. Take your time shopping. There are plenty of Priuses in the sea.
     
  3. Mormegil

    Mormegil Member

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    I'll assume you also took into account the current 2 year / 25,000 mile free maintenance on new (2010-2011) cars.

    On the other hand, the 2010- on model "requires" synthetic motor oil, which can drive up maintenance costs after the initial 25,000 miles. But the oil change is only every 10,000 miles compared to the 2007's 5,000 miles with standard motor oil.

    The 2010 model doesn't have any external belts, so that should be a plus on wear and tear for that year.


    If it's a wash between the two financially, I'd take each out for a test drive and see which car you like better.
     
  4. Redsnake

    Redsnake Can drive anywhere

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    I agree.... buying a used latest model with low miles will save you a lot of money. Also if you buy it as a Toyota Certified Vehicle, you get additional warranties and be pretty sure it is well checked by Toyota. I got mine as a TCV and have had absolutely no problems with it at all (knock on wood). Of course there are costs involved like tires, wiper blades, oil change, servicing etc. I do not have the navigation package since I have my Garmin GPS which I can easily upgrade as the maps get old.
     
  5. UGC

    UGC Member

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    Honestly, neither one is a bad choice (new or used).

    For your situation, I say go with new. You'll have warranty/newer body style/small increase in MPG + I think when the day comes that you sell the car (obviously you keep them for some time), it will be worth more per dollar spent (% wise) compaired to the older Gen II body style.

    Everyones thinking on this is going to differ quite a bit. Myself, I like to buy used high mileage vehicles that look (and run) like they only have about 40k on them. Why? Well, I can buy the car for less because of the mileage, put 30k to 50k on them, and usually sell them for what I bought it for. You can't do that with "new".

    Good luck with your buying decision.
     
  6. D53

    D53 Junior Member

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    I'm attaching a copy of my spreadsheet so you can see what it looks like. It includes some estimated and real prices. As you can see, the 2010s do not appear to be cost-effective compared to a 2008 Prius with approximately 45,000 miles (look at the average annual cost column). To make a 2010 cost-effective, I have to reduce the life expectancy to 200,000 miles, which is too short for me (I think). That is why an accurate deferred maintenance/repair cost is critical to my analysis.
     

    Attached Files:

    • Car.xls
      File size:
      37 KB
      Views:
      502
  7. Patrick Wong

    Patrick Wong DIY Enthusiast

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    Life Expectancy: as long as parts are available and you are willing to pay for repairs, you in theory can keep a car running. My question is when you will get tired of spending four-digit amounts on those repairs as the car's market value approaches or drops below the repair costs.

    Battery Replacement Cost: Yes, your budget is reasonable assuming that you are going to pay a Toyota dealer service dept for this work. It is possible to purchase a salvage battery for ~$500 or so currently.

    Deferred Maintenance: I do not think there is any basis to believe that the 2010 model will have substantially lower maintenance and repair costs over its lifetime. The 2G serpentine drive belt is a minor maintenance item. Assuming that a set of tires lasts 40K miles, you might need to spend $2,500 just on tires over 300K miles. Therefore I think your budget of $4,000 is insufficient. Since you have provided for battery replacement cost as a separately budgeted item, and assuming you will rely upon dealer service, I suggest you budget $8K for maintenance.

    I question your desire to purchase a model with factory nav, since many owners have complained about the high cost of CD updates along with the general out-of-datedness of the nav data even with a current CD.
     
  8. D53

    D53 Junior Member

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    Thanks for your input, Patrick! I also question the value/utility of the Navigation option. If I were to drive a Prius which actually had a navigation system, I might very well agree with the critics. At this point, I have not, and therefore am keeping it on my wish list. All I know is I really like our voice-activated Garmin GPS and would like to have a built-in GPS in any Prius I purchase.

    On the other hand, my wife may not like the built-in navigation option due to its higher price. I could definitely get a more cost-effective Prius if I excluded the navigation option.

    I wonder what the consensus opinion is on going with an $8,000 lifetime maintenance cost and no differentiation between mantenance/repair costs between 2010/2011s and 2007/2009s?
     
  9. The Electric Me

    The Electric Me Go Speed Go!

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    Hmm....

    You expect a long life and drive above the average per year. Since as presented it doesn't sound like initial purchase price is a huge factor, since new or used it sounds like you can and will pay it off A.S.A.P., personally I would buy new.

    With 30,000+ miles per year...I think having the new car warranty in place, and the Hybrid Battery warranty starting at day one...could be a big advantage.

    Also right now might be a real good time to make a deal on a "new" 2010.
     
  10. macmaster05

    macmaster05 Senor Member

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    I just posted this on another thread, but I was saying that if I could buy a Prius all over again, I would buy the cheapest Prius (in good working order of course) that I could find, and modify the hell out of it.
     
  11. avocadoman1

    avocadoman1 Member

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    Ditto...
    actually, I purchased a "salvage title" Prius.
    the repair shop makes a living re-doing Prius.
    mine had all the "before" picture to verify damage.

    no problems so far (knock on wood).
     
  12. bretaz

    bretaz Member

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    Since you drive them so long, get a new one. A used 2010 is not really much cheaper than a new one. I got my II for $20,549. I am going to ad the Rosen nav to it, which is about $900.00. So far I really like the 2010.
     
  13. 13Plug

    13Plug Active Member

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    In your case if you can basically pay cash for the car and drive it into the ground, just stop the analysis and buy a brand new one ;-)

    In the long run it's probably cheaper to buy a used one but you don't know the history of the vehicle. Just buy new and sleep well.
     
  14. D53

    D53 Junior Member

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    You would think that, just buy it new and drive it into the ground, would be the way to go but so far my spreadsheet suggests otherwise. That is why it is important to get good estimates for deferred maintenance/repair.
     
  15. mattleerocks

    mattleerocks New Member

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    I bought my 2008 Prius touring with 31k miles, leather, navigation, jbl, and smart key for 16600. If I had not found this deal I would have bought a new one.
     
  16. D53

    D53 Junior Member

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    Based on the comments received, I have made some modifications to the worksheet to take into account the value of a "Toyota Certified" used car. The first question I have is, what is a 100,000 mile warranty worth? I'm assuming $1,000.

    Also, I modified the worksheet to assume that Toyota Certified used cars have received proper maintenance. Therefore, the worksheet deducts the pro-rata maintenance costs, based on the mileage, of Toyota Certified used cars. The workbook has been revised to allow the user to determine the percentage of total maintenance cost to occur within first 1/3, second 1/3, and third 1/3 of vehicle life expcetancy. Currently, I am estimating that 9% of the maintenance/repair cost occurs in the first 1/3 of the car's lifespan.

    I also inputted some actual used cars for sale as per cargurus.com and usedcars.comm. Currently, a 2010 used Prius is showing the lowest average annual cost. Also, I've limited my choices to those with the Navigation system.

    What is your opinion on these estimates?
     

    Attached Files:

    • Car2.xls
      File size:
      43.5 KB
      Views:
      290
  17. adamace1

    adamace1 Senior Member

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    I think the oil change thing is a wash. i pay $59 every 10k miles, i would think buy regular oil for a older prius would cost $30 twice as often. To the OP go out and drive both models and keep looking untill you find one you like best.
     
  18. D53

    D53 Junior Member

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    Attached is my final version of the worksheet. I revised the worksheet to correct a formula error. In addition, I have loaded it with all "real" used car information. I have also added columns to take into account trade-in value, money expended by the previous owner for maintenance, and additional gas savings for 2010 Priuses compared to earlier models.

    See what you think of my assumptions.
     

    Attached Files:

  19. D53

    D53 Junior Member

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    One more try. A few quick revisions to the worksheet.
     

    Attached Files:

    • Car3.xls
      File size:
      155.5 KB
      Views:
      337
  20. 13Plug

    13Plug Active Member

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    You're over-analyzing this. OK, so I kinda got attached to the car and just bought it. I bought new, paid cash and have no regrets.