The PIP will lose market share in 2013 to the VOLT and be overtaken by the Tesla

The statement is not based on one graph. The graph offers a potential explanation for the unexpectedly low real world MPG of the Energi. Almost every characteristic of a car is primarily determined by design/engineering. Of course we tend to over look the engineering details in favor of the ride, low road noise, acceleration etc.. Yes it is possible that Ford engineers are not surprised by the Cmax Energi's real world performance. If true Ford is in serious trouble.
Toyota tells you up front that you can expect 11 miles EV from a PIP. In general Prii get better mileage than their EPA rating. I have a feeling Toyota deliberately errors on the low side when it comes to EPA ratings. Based consumer response it is a great marketing tool.

 

There are two factors I consider significant in the upcoming electric car transition.

The first factor is a dramatic shift in the cost of gasoline. When a big jump occurs, those at the edge of buying Hybrid/PHEV/EV finally make the plunge. Those far from the edge get off their rears and start asking others, "Do them dang hybrids actually save gas?" Unfortunately a slow sustained rise is often not a sufficient trigger. A quick (if temporary) spike often does the trick. I have no clue how many spikes will occur in the slow rise in front of us.

The second factor is ANY vehicle needs to be on the market three or four years before the vast majority of folks can even consider it "real" or even a possibility. We are past that threshold on the Hybrid, halfway there on the PHEV, and still have years to go on the EV. I got a 2001 Prius and it was not until the 2004 version came out that most others considered it something beyond a flash in the pan.

 

The real reason for the C-Max's less than Prius like MPG numbers could be due to a) inferior engineering talent or b) management priorities that compromise MPG. My point was that one, or even a few graphs don't make this clear. Now the word "engineering" means two completely different things oftentimes. To the general public, it refers to the overall result and success (even if that success is fueled by great marketing of mediocre engineering-Think Hummer). To a professional design engineer, it means how well the design meets the management goals. When great engineering capabilities are expended on an inferior management decision, then blaming the engineering puts the blame on the wrong people. Ford may be guilty, but not necessarily because the C-students became engineers.

What is clear is that the Prius was a home run in both an engineering and management combination.

 

That sensible logic really ruffles the feathers of both enthusiasts & greenwashers.

The enthusiast yearns for rapid success, signs of strong high demand shortly after rollout. Heavy emphasis on bragging-rights how you to indentify them. Words over substance, a recipe for trouble they just plain cannot see. It's really unfortunate; yet, we've seen it play out several times now.

The greenwasher is one who doesn't want to acknowledge all the aspects at play or take into account real-world data beyond a vague sampling. It's your own assumptions they take advantage of, painting a picture of failure rather than providing information rather than allowing you to decide.

For me, I'm enjoying the first year of plug-in hybrid ownership during the wait. Just like with the previous generations, I knew it wouldn't even be until the summer of the second year that people would begin to take notice. Patience totally paid off then. At that point, you've collected enough data and summarized your finding to such a degree they are compelled to learn more. The "real" effect is something I've been looking forward to.

 

It is really odd John to hear you talk about the need for patience, being that you have hammered on the Volt for not tearing up the sales numbers right away.

 

Volt supporters made it overwhelming clear to wait until the second year, which is exactly what I did. When I replied back then with their own claims, I got heck for it.

Fortunately, I'm a big fan of the Daily Show. So the "odd" is really a sense of vindication as well as looking for new expectations. The what's & when's are all documented in detail.

What should we expect for 2013?

 

Hmm looking at John's own posts, they match his own definition of greenwashing. Doesen't want to acknowledge all the aspects and employes a vauge sampling of real data. Takes advantage of a few over enthusiastic projections to paint a picture of failure rather than analyzing data and concluding there is solid growth on solid products.

John you should stop trying to bait people into providing projections that are beyond their position, just so you can set them up to say they were wrong and continue your anti-GM anti-greenwashing. That does not really help understanding.

The volt did much better in the second year, which is sign of growth. It continues with its customer satisfaction domination. What is your problem with the second year's performance? That it did not match someones projections made years ago?

You talk about data yet provide virtually no meaningful analysis, just the occasional post of your logs, often from short periods, and suggest it means something. JeffN and DevPrius did much more, in a week, to help our understanding of the difference of various PHEVs then you have in all your PiP postings. Nothing wrong with a fanboi posting positive data snippets to help sell others on favoriate thing, but don't confuse that with meaningful data for real analysis.

 

I continue to be frustrated by folks that think EV/plugin sales are slow. EV/plugin sales are right on track....

Historically, the adoption rate of new technology is slow. The new technology costs more than the product it is replacing, and it takes time to ramp up to full production.

The adoption rate of plugins is very consistent with the historical adoption rate of new technology, and very consistent with the adoption rate of hybrids.

With all the talk about slow sales, plugin sales tripled from 2011 to 2012 (their 2nd year on the market), and will probably triple again in 2013. That is "not" slow by any means for a new technology.

The only thing that could change this pattern, and speed up plugin sales, would be a miracle technological breakthrough that "significantly" lowered the cost of batteries, but that is not expected. The pace of advancements in battery technology is "also" consistent with with the historical pace of advancement of other technologies.

I see nothing to indicate that plugin sales are going to suddenly increase by 10-fold in the next few years. But, that does not mean that plugin sales are "slow"....

I think GM and Nissan learned this lesson with their unrealistic sales projections, and got burned in the court of public opinion. I think we need to adjust our expectations as well...

 

Electric cars don’t have much of a market share yet, Electric Take-Rate: 0.42%
Electrics sold in the U.S. (January 2013): 4,376 January 2013 Dashboard - HybridCars.com

 

IMO, it's clearly B. What are the top 3 complaints of the Prius? I'm willing to bet it's style, power and drive ability, and interior. The C-Max easily beats the Prius in those 3 categories. You can argue style all you want but the majority of people will say the C-Max is not pretty and then go on to say the Prius is U-G-L-Y. The C-Max is faster and handles better. The interior is more plush and less plastic. All three things compromise MPG. And I agree with Ford. Going against the Prius at its own game is a tough battle. All things being equal why would the consumer choose the newcomer over the incumbent they are already comfortable and familiar with? Ford needs to take a stand on other qualities.

The only failure on Ford's part is overestimating the C-Max's fuel economy. No one would fault it for getting lower fuel economy if it offers these features better than the Prius. Case in point below. Reviewers will always choose the driver's car and consumers will choose what fits them best.

2012 Toyota Prius V vs. 2013 Ford C-Max Hybrid Comparison - Motor Trend

 

What about a sudden spike in the cost of gas? In my area the price of gas jumped from $3.73 to $3.99 in less than two weeks.

 

No matter what is posted, all I get is insults and attempts to discredit from you now.

Don't bother replying, because I won't see it anymore.

Goodbye.

 

I just did the math for myself. Indeed, it was 4%. But has fallen to about 2% now that I have a Prius.

 

"Can we all just get along?"
In my opinion all data is interesting. It is up to the recipient to undertake a critical analysis of what is presented.

Prius chat was one of sites that i visited in search of information to help me decide which Vehicle (PHEV or EV) we should purchase. 99.99% of the 'data' reported on this site is not scientific. However, the feedback I received helped narrow my options. Over a six month period my top choice was a Leaf, Volt, PIP, Cmax-Energi, and back to a PIP. These forums facilitate conversations, the exchange of opinions and observations and occasionally provides directions to 'empirical' data.
I used what I gleaned from this site and others to develop my driving profile to help me predict the effect of low temperatures on EV range. I found the most reliable data to be the real world performance data from owners. This site even helped me to find a excellent purchase price.
Overall, I am pleased with the outcome. I purchased a great car that is gentle on the environment at a decent price.