Dashboard Feb-May 2013

1> Its nice to see the Toyota Prius sales tick up in May, after a dismal April. But really it just looks like either all of the Toyota dealers took vacation in April, or the reported monthly data is not always correctly separated by month.

2> It is going to be interesting to see the state-by-state breakdowns, to see if VA holds its position. VA was previously a Top-10 Prius market (somewhat inexplicably) but we have taken away most HOV perks and we have quite high taxes on hybrids now. I do not see it as a bargain anymore, but if people just like em, they sell anyways I guess.

 

In my case it was a matter of purchasing a car that :
1. best fit my driving pattern in terms of fuel efficiency.
2. Was below my wife's threshold price.
3. I felt I could trust.
4. Reliable since I plan on owning it for 8-10 years.

I also considered waiting and purchasing a CMax Energi. At the time, most reviews thought the PIP's 11 mile made it a poor choice. While most the Energi to have a much higher MPG due to its bigger battery. After doing some research i was convinced that Toyota had created a first rate system.
I decided not to purchase a Energi after reading the negative reports concerning the Cmax hybrids 'low real world mpg'. The real world data (fuelly) suggests that I made the right decision. According to Fuelly despite its smaller battery the PIP is getting higher MPG than the Energi.
A closer review of the data reveals that the results are strongly influenced by driving pattern. The ICE in the Energi is only averaging 34-38 mpg in HV-mode on thehighway. While My PIP averages 60 to 65 mpg.
If the consumer focuses is one battery size and range then I think the PIP is at a disadvantage. Clearly, Toyota engineers has done a great job of optimizing the PIP's fuel efficiency.

 

I was mulling today where EVs are in the auto TCO landscape, and it seems that at least for the leasing population, if combined with well sited PV, an EV is competitive.

PV costs about $3.6 a watt, for a lifetime production of about 60 kWh, thus 6 cents a kWh. If the EV manages 3 miles a kWh from the wall, then fuel costs are 2.0 cents a mile.

Leases are about $260 a month that allow 1000 miles, thus 26 cents a mile.

Combined, assuming perfect utilization of the lease, the car costs 28 cents a mile.
That is actually pretty darned remarkable, although a ~30% percent subsidy on the package deal is the underpinning.

 

I wonder if other years have the same pattern...April is tax month

Mike

 

Very intriguing idea!!
Did auto sales in general take a dip, or just hybrids...

Edit*******
Looks like that is indeed an annual trend.
According to April 2013 US Auto Sales: Up For General Motors (GM), Ford (F), Chrysler, VW (VOW), Honda (HMC), Toyota (TM)
March is a very strong month and April tends to be lower.

 

I realized that, but it is not how compared the Leaf and Volt that started this line of discussion.

Why is that?

 

Toyota kept pushing hard in the categories of cost-reduction and product-diversity. We know that more powerful traction-motors are already in their arsenal of configuration components too. We also know they've been working really hard to deliver even higher efficiency engines. So, it's not like they aren't preparing to continue to rollout improvements.

 

By Glob, you have a thin skin.

It was a direct reply to your post. If you feel he was incorrect in saying you were wrong, post the evidence showing so. If being called wrong in the first place is so painful to begin with, then make sure you have the facts right to begin with.

I'll try to stick to the topic for now on.

Since it appears it is a trend with tax month, can we explain why those that bucked the trend did so?

Tesla was/is still filling back orders. With that in mind, their monthly sales should really be viewed as deliveries, since the purchasers would likely have loved to have gotten their car when they put down the deposit.

The Fusion had a recall involving its headlights. The fix may have caused delays in production. On top of that, the Fusion in general is selling well enough that Ford is expanding its production. Its bump may just be simply supply no meeting demand in earlier months, pushing those sales into Apr.

2013 Ford Fusion Recalls | ‘13 Ford Fusion Recall Problems - Automobile Magazine


Want to Buy a Ford Fusion This Summer? Good Luck! (F)


Ford delayed MKZ release to ensure they didn't repeat quality mistakes like with the Fusion. Supply to demand, with some it's new-itis, can explain it.

I can't explain the Malibu. Is the hybrid sales trend mirroring the model as a whole? The 2014 is going to get a minor refresh. Perhaps incentives are helping sales. The is a 0% and $2000 customer cash offer over on the Chevy site. But the only Chevy without any is the Spark.

 

The subjective nature of online posting prevents that from being realistic. Someone will always be "wrong" simply because they have a different scope or perspective. As for "facts", they often lack detail or provide enough context to end confusion & assumptions, not to mention misunderstandings. So, the situation is a challenge right from the start.

Adding personal comment isn't constructive... it frustrates participants and undermines the intent of the thread.

 

Tax payers put in about 49.5 Billion see Treasury Announces Intent to Fully Exit GM Investment Within the Next 12-15 Months

The AP wire reported that with the conclusion of this week's stock sale, taxpayers will have recovered $32.53 billion of the $49.5 billion bailout amount, leaving it about $16.97 billion below recovering the entire amount of the bailout. The sale will leave the government with 189.2 million shares of GM stock remainin.


Current net market cap of GM is 48B, with an enterprise value (cash and capital assets) of 40B. (GM Key Statistics | General Motors Company Common S Stock - Yahoo! Finance) Not sure what your reading but you might need to find a better source of financial data.

 

Don't overlook that I have paid cash for three generations of Prius. That vote with the wallet says I'm a Prius supporter regardless of how any of my postings can be interpreted. However, all my car purchases are based on bang for the buck, not the badge on the front. There is still pollution coming out of a Prius tailpipe, so there is still room for improvement.

The product-diversity comment is not so absolute. When it comes to pure EVs, Toyota is surprisingly vacant in a market where they could be a very strong presence. Likewise, The PiP is the result of a lot of engineering, but clearly a lot more of a baby step than the final culmination of a deep strategic plan. As fast as Toyota is moving, Tesla is moving faster.

 

It might not be constructive, and Drinnovation could have left it off. Then he would have just been implying you were wrong. The insult is in the delivery?

These aren't delicate diplomatic negotiations where implications are safe talk and direct statements aren't. It's an internet forum. You can put him on ignore because you feel insulted by some direct conversation, but that isn't going to stop him from commenting to your posts. When readers, that don't know the history, see you not responding to some good points he brings up, they will wonder why?

 

Being taken out of context is a common occurrence anyway. This really wouldn't be any different. The worst though is posting outdated information. So even when "facts" are correct, they are no longer be relevant. That's the nature of online posting.

Another thing with history is simply bringing it up again. Preventing conclusions from being drawn is something we've all had to deal with on a regular basis... from a whole variety of sources. Some are innocent misunderstandings. Some are the result of intentional undermining. Then there's a bunch in between.

My approach is to not waste time or clutter threads with content that isn't constructive... which means I'm done with this, here.

Product-Diversity within a segment. Entirely different categories, like traditional vehicles or electric-only vehicles, are independent efforts.

Notice how most everyone had the mindset that the liftback Prius would only offer a single choice of engine? It prevented the support of having more than one battery-capacity size. Traditional vehicles have offered engine variety for decades. Why is that such a hard thing to accept for hybrids?

The biggest problem is that people don't understand how the system actually works. That's why rollout of the plug-in model progresses slowly. Assumptions are plentiful... and often not correct. After all, look at how long it took to just overcome the misconceptions for hybrids. Introducing a plug confuses matters.

Without even realizing it, people work within a box. Pushing outside that self-imposed limitation presents challenges.

 

With regards to the tail pipe emissions, we might be at a point where the cost of reducing them past the current best rating may not be supported by the reduction return. The old Civic VX got better fuel economy than the Civic of the time mostly do to lean burn. Which meant comparatively more NOx emissions. Take ethanol. You want to concentrate what you have just produced. Distillation will take it up to 95%. To get higher concentrations, you need to distill it with benzene, or use an expensive molecular sieve. If you have to have absolutely pure ethanol, those are the costs. Honestly though, 95% serves for a majority of purposes.

We have become much better at making our cake and eating it too in regards to balancing emissions to power, efficiency, and cost. But will further reducing Prius level emissions improve air quality to the degree that it might cost. What would be better for the environment, a Prius with cleaner emissions or one with emissions of the current gen but greater fuel efficiency?

We still might be able to have both, but getting the dirtier(relatively) cars down to Prius levels has more effect than getting the Prius cleaner.

As long as there is an ICE running, there will be tailpipe emissions. Shifting more miles to EV mode maybe the easiest path in reducing them overall. Yes, the electricity has emissions, but they need to be reduced either way, and it's more a lack of will than lack of ability keeping the reduction from being quicker.

 

Innovation and much of it coming from the Bay Area will transform car technology in our life times.

 

As everybody knows:

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It might not be constructive, and Drinnovation could have left it off. Then he would have just been implying you were wrong. The insult is in the delivery?

The insult includes shouting the totally vacuous Jack Nicholson photo with text: "You can't handle the truth." Discussing facts and data does not imply anything but an attempt to share another set of observations. There is no requirement for everybody to agree.

These aren't delicate diplomatic negotiations where implications are safe talk and direct statements aren't. It's an internet forum. You can put him on ignore because you feel insulted by some direct conversation, but that isn't going to stop him from commenting to your posts.

Everyone has 'free speech' but there is no 'required reading.' When somebody goes out of their way to be disagreeable, everybody has two options: (1) report to a moderator, or (2) put the insulter on the ignore list. Everybody does not live in "A Clockwork Orange" where all posts are required reading. . . . unless of course, we are paid for this.

When readers, that don't know the history, see you not responding to some good points he brings up, they will wonder why?

There is no requirement that casual readers understand what is going on. Everybody does not care what they do or don't learn.
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Everybody can disagree without being disagreeable. But if an individual's 'fact' does not impress, shouting and insults do not change minds and often turns out to be a 'tune out.'

Everybody

 

It's not. It just hasn't been done, and that is why it might be hard for the public to accept. With the Tesla S, and I think the Renault EVs, offering various battery sizes, it should be easier for the people to see various engine/battery/EV range options in the same hybrid as possible.

In regards to PPI sales(kept this one on topic), the people saying it could have sold better with a longer EV range aren't saying a shorter range model should never exist. The fault isn't in the PPI's design. It's in design decisions that misjudged the current market. Some of us may have called the PPI bad, but in regards to this discussion it's just saying a different design decisions would have had better sales results at this point.

A company can offer an I4 or a V6 in a car. Both are possible, but one has to come first. The market is calling for the V6 now. They may not need it or will even be the majority of sales when both are offered, but these are the people willing to put money down on the car now. Offering the V6 first means more revenue at the moment. The higher sales might also generate some positive press, and increase demand for the more affordable I4. That doesn't mean offering the I4 first is wrong, but it might be a slower course to success.

I find the fascination with max EV speed of a non-PHV hybrid stupid. It might actually matter to a hypermiler like high power matters to an autocross racer, and high torque to someone with a heavy trailer to pull, but to the majority it is just a bragging right. All the motive energy comes from gas in the end. As long as little is used is possible, the path there doesn't matter.

And arguments over whether blended-PHV or EREV is better are just silly. More so than any other car segment, best one depends on the individuals specifics. So, little gas yadda yadda yadda doesn't matter.

What?
That wasn't in the post that called on for an insult. In fact, it was several pages ago.
John was also guilty of, "...complaining about not sticking to facts then asking for speculation on GM objectives instead of facts." from that time.

Drinnovation should drop the chip on his shoulder from that time, if only that his point is better received.

The community also needs to be receptive to those of the non-Prius camp. Because they(gm-volt, tdiclub) do it is never a justifiable defense. Yes, it is a Prius site. But it has sub forums for all hybrid and EV news, one forother non hybrid cars, and ones for make specific hybrid and EV models, including those seen as the enemy.

The site is free to be exclusive, but don't present yourself as an inclusive one.

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Fine for you, but individual posters might.

Oh, I am well aware of that. Doesn't change the fact that I might feel an urge to defend the underdog.

 

My last post on the subject in this thread. We can start another if you wish...

1. $50 Billion is the formal bailout. It does not include the BK losses, or incentives GM was given to upgrade factories, pursue 'green' tech, keep factories in the US, money given to GMAC, toxic dumps and assets given to the taxpayer -- and who knows what else.

2. Market cap is at best tangential to GM's net value today, and currently is a speculative stock IMO. My last link mentioned the assets and liabilities.