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Clouds and cosmic rays

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, Sep 5, 2013.

  1. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Remember Svensmark? Cosmic rays make cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), and with possible feedbacks to earth's climate. This generated some controversy, even here at PriusChat. Now Prof. S has 'done the right thing' and improved the experimental design. Published in Physics Letters A

    Unexpected magic by cosmic rays in cloud formation
    Response of cloud condensation nuclei (>50 nm) to changes in ion-nucleation #

    I don't know if you will encounter the paywall on that second link, but at least you can read the abstract. Am not enough of a physicist to know whether this is a breakthrough paper, but I very much respect the effort that has obviously gone into the work.

    The ball, perhaps, is back in the climatologists' court. Are there increases in cloudiness during the solar minima every 11 years? If so the look-down satellites (since about 1970) should have seen them 4 times. If someone would help by finding such a study, I'd appreciate it. I'm frying other fish these days.

    Anyway, Svensmark published and I thought y'all should know.
     
  2. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    One of my favorite grocery stores has open top, chest freezers and often we can see a layer of condensing fog 6-12 inches thick over the frozen foods. These 'clouds' look similar to real cloud chambers as shown below:
    [​IMG]
    I've never seen a 'trace' in the grocery store ice chest suggesting a cosmic ray reached the local cloud layer but I keep looking.

    So based upon this study, does this mean we've failed to observe these radiation induced, cloud formations growing from high altitudes and headed down?

    Bob Wilson
     
  3. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    I don't know if solar-cycle linked variations in cloud cover have been observed. I think that a good way to look is with satellite imagery. Every LandSat scene, for example, has %cloud cover in the metadata, as well as 'where and when'. So one does not even need to look at the pictures. Just see if there are cycles in cloud cover.

    The charged-particle influx is 'top-down' to be sure, but that is not the way to think about cloud formation. You need the CCN (sulfuric acid aerosols may be the most abundant), the zapping ionizes them so they grow to a suitable size (the new research), and they also have to be in a sufficiently humid air parcel. Then and there you get cloud. If the CCN zapping matters, you get more cloud when there are more cosmic rays.

    Not many charged particles get down to the level of your grocer's freezer, and let's be happy about that. They'd have to miss a lot of molecules (mostly nitrogen) on the way down. I suppose everybody knows that Commercial airliner crews (and military flyers) get more zapping than we who spend most of our time under most of the atmosphere. That they are behind (and near) a centimeter of aluminum doesn't help much. The cosmic rays just convert an Al atom into something else (I forgot what) and then it hits you. Billiards and alchemy, all at the same time.

    Along the same lines, if you decide to spend a few months traveling to Mars, you'd get pretty toasted on the way. Gotta love that atmosphere, man - talk about ecosystem services...
     
  4. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Ya know I was expecting Mojo to drop by and we could agree about Svensmark's laudable work. Anyway, I have the article in case anyone wants to read it. Physics Letters A 's paywall is like butter. Like butter, I tells ya.
     
  5. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Bob,
    When I took neurology in college, we had a number of examples given of false causation due to poor experimental design.

    In the first case researchers took worms that solved a maze, ground them up and fed them to other worms. These worms were able to learn the maze faster than worms that fed a normal lab worm diet.

    In the second the case researchers interviewed homosexuals in prison. From these interviews they determined that homosexuals were more likely to have sociopathic tendencies.

    Conclusions that were taken as true by research for years were that there are molecular changes with learning that can be passed on to worms by eating those learning molecules. Homosexuals are sociopaths.

    By 2013 it should be easy to tell what is wrong about these experiments.
    In the worm study the worms themselves were found to be more nutritious than the worm food they had been given. Better nutrition helps at least worms learn. We haven't found any of those maze solving molecules, what we have learned is that learned behavior is encoded by synapses between neurons. This pattern is destroyed in the process of eating a smart mans brain. ;) They failed to control the structure of the food. Grinding up stupid worms would have given the same benefit. The homosexual studies are part of the bad part of non-blind experimental design. It is likely the researchers already had a prejudice of homosexuals, and subconsciously chose a prison population where sociopaths were more likely. It simply is a very poor experimental, you could decide christens or atheists are sociopaths by the same design.

    You are as unlikely to see radiation formed cloud interaction as ghg based global warming in your local supermarket.
     
  6. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Planarians fed dried, ground planarians get smarter - ah, that one was classic.

    Several of the studies showing various insects and spiders eat their partner after mating also have been 'shuffled out the door'. It is commonplace in the lab, but rarely seen in field observations.

    If science was easy, they'd let anyone do it :)

    But a local source of ionizing radiation would be fun in Bob's grocer's freezer. Fun, but probably would not make the cut at Physics Letters A.
     
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  7. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Oh for a radium clock!

    Science, both good and bad, are not a place or people but a process . . . a way to enlightenment . . . before we die. In life we often meet science 'posers' who like 'cargo cults', worship the shape, the illusion, not the spirit of science. But sometimes, you read interesting science reports and wonder,'Should we see it in some ordinary aspect of life?'

    Now my interest in seeing comic ray tracks in an open top freezer, is it any stranger than those bubble chambers around a particle accelerator? Could the same principle be observed in a beaker of super-heated water? Or perhaps in a massive neutrino detector built by drilling holes and freezing strings of sensitive photo detectors?
    [​IMG]

    So one might as well ask,'Should we see cosmic ray traces in fog?'

    I appreciate the hypothesis but the radiation flux, even in the upper atmosphere is so low . . . Radiation tracks exist in many places but often hard to find:
    [​IMG]

    So I'm calm about the study, not that it can not be demonstrated in a lab model, but rather we need field observations of the postulated effect, the hypothesis . . . independent confirmation. So if I look up and see clouds growing from high altitudes down, it works for me. But let's see something in the field.

    Bob Wilson
     
  8. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    There are radiation sources available on Ebay (at least I think there still are). The classic Geiger counters came with their own calibration sources that are perhaps the 'hottest' things you can get your hands on easily.
    Some famous name brands of ceramics from the 40's and 50's. Open a smoke detector and get out that alpha source (Am241?) nope I did not suggest any of those things.

    Fukushima cooling-tank water? I understand that the material is being produced in large quantities. Thinking about watersports at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics already. I must be deranged. Someone else must have written this.
     
  9. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    The big risk is biological concentration of radioactive isotopes. But I'm also remembering in the 1950s there were a lot of nuclear weapons tests. It might be interesting to survey some of the long-term studies.

    Bob Wilson
     
  10. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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    Im getting a laugh about how people here react to an outcome of real science experimentation.
    AGW believers think that computer models are reliable, when actually they are fantasy.


    Heres someone who shares my point of view.
    The most brilliant scientist alive.
    Climatologists are no Einsteins, says his successor | NJ.com
    "I just think they don’t understand the climate," he said of climatologists."
    "The models are extremely oversimplified," he said. "They don't represent the clouds in detail at all. They simply use a fudge factor to represent the clouds."
     
  11. chogan2

    chogan2 Senior Member

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    No trend in cosmic rays. Yes trend in temperature. Not much more to say on "do cosmic rays explain global warming." That is the story; the rest is commentary.
     
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  12. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    @10 I wish I knew what the laugh was about. My response was glad he did and published the experiment. Did anyone else respond to the experiment here?

    Here are a couple of cloud-cover papers:

    Multidecadal changes in near-global cloud cover and estimated cloud cover radiative forcing
    Joel R. Norris
    Journal of Geophysical Research, VOL. 110, D08206, doi:10.1029/2004JD005600, 2005

    A Survey of Changes in Cloud Cover and Cloud Types over Land from Surface Observations, 1971–96
    Stephen G. Warren and Ryan M. Eastman
    Journal of Climate 20:717-738.

    Check 'em out. If I read correctly, there have been negative or no trends over the periods examined.

    For me, the primary weakness of climate models is failing to run heat in and out of oceans in ways that agree with observations. Perhaps for Mojo and Dyson, its clouds. I'm sticking with oceans because there was an earlier period of slow air temperature increases (1960's), and we are in another one now. Ocean oscillations (like ENSO, AMO and PDO) correspond with air T, and as far as I can tell, cloudiness does not. So, considering these two, we have one smoking gun and one gun with a cool barrel.

    In 'the lit' we read about (poorly represented) aerosols in this context, so I'm not claiming to offer the final word on the subject. But if someone could do a climate model that shows the famous air T spike in 1998 El Nino, and the quick drop after, I'd like that. 1998 was a big deal and we have lots of observational data about it. All the hallmarks of a juicy target.

    The earlier volcanic eruptions that injected sulfate aerosol into the stratosphere have been pretty well handled, it seems. Pinatubo and Chichon.
     
  13. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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    Actually I wasnt referring to you.Sorry for the clumsy response.
    BTW Im on the fence here.
    Cosmic ray levels may only be a proxy for weakening/strengthening solar magnetism .
    But contrary to Chogans post, there is a clear correlation to sun spot # and climate .
    Whether its Cosmic rays, or Solar effect on the Earths magnetic field ,(or whatever mechanism) is unknown.
    Whats obvious from historical sunspot counts and Earths temperature, is that its some Solar mechanism which controls climate.
     
  14. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Long-term solar irradiance and Air T - yes I have read those. In fact about February, I pointed readers to Zhou and Tung (two papers in 2013) on the subject. You can also see Lean et al. 1995.

    Sunspot number and Air T - your turn...
     
  15. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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    Sunspot_Numbers.png
     
  16. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    I'm not mojo, but here is the theory

    solarRadiation(t) = f(sunspotPattern(t))

    Solar radiation of course is related to air temperature in the models. Since sun spots go in an 11 year half cycle, it takes lots of data to determine the function;) What we need is a very low number of sun spots in a solar cycle as well as the satellites up there looking at the radiation to figure out the function. Some where hoping this cycle would be small enough to get good data.

    The Radiation theory is of course more complicated. Certain radiation patterns yield differences in the jet stream which cause changes to ocean oscillations, which combined change cloud patterns and precipitation (floods/droughts/etc). It seems that many of those that prescribe to these theory don't want to be published, piers corbyn etc. The idea is out there and being tested though.
     
  17. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    You can get a better graph than that from Zhou and Tung...if you'd only look.

    Lean et al. 1995 comes up second on google scholar, and it's free.

    Just about anything written by Joanna Haigh.

    Regional SSN vs. T studies keep popping up, mostly from the subtropical belt. I suppose that (by some mechanism), high-latitude (cold-air) systems move closer to the equator during low SSN. Need to find that mechanism though, we really do.

    I guess it's not global cloud cover, but one would want to read more than the two papers I cited above to be certain.
     
  18. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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    Its probably cloud cover .But why and how clouds are formed is a mystery.
    Thats why climatology as a science is a joke .
    Its all unknown, especially to climate models.
    Climatology is at the level of medicine when they believed that bloodletting was the cure.
    At the same time period society believed witches controlled climate and were the cause of COLD climate causing crop losses,famine ,plagues related to cold climate.
    CO2 is the modern day witch.
     
  19. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    I thought the sunspot numbers for a cycle were a proxy for the solar radiation. That means we need various cycles with different number to determine the function based on what the satelites pick up for radiation. What other mechanism do you need?

    Since we have satelites now we no longer need sun spots, but they may give valuable historic information.
     
  20. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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    Your twisting my post.
    Cosmic ray levels are a proxy for Sunspots levels=climate temps
    But its unknown how sunspots control climate.