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Will you be ordering the new iPhoneS or C ?

Discussion in 'Fred's House of Pancakes' started by JMD, Sep 10, 2013.

  1. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    Actually, the Ebay bidding game is akin to rock-paper-scissors in that no one choice is superior to all the others.

    In the case of Ebay, maximum bid but early bidders are beat by so called nibblers -- those that bid multiple times in small increments until they are the leaders.
     
  2. daniel

    daniel Cat Lovers Against the Bomb

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    Bigger would definitely be easier on the eyes, but I got my Mini specifically for travel. Though I play chess and solitaire and Flow on it at home, I really wanted a travel computer, and I set my criterion as a weight of less than a pound. The weight of the Mini, and its small size, make it perfect for travel, while still being big enough for email and journaling and checking weather reports.

    OTOH, I have no idea how my new eyes will affect my experience. I remove my glasses to see the small print on the iPod Touch, which I use for music and other audio. I will soon need glasses to see anything close up. It will take some getting used to. I will probably wait until after New Year's to check out the Mini 2, after my new eyes are settled in.
     
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  3. daniel

    daniel Cat Lovers Against the Bomb

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    The advantage of entering a maximum bid is that you won't get carried away and bid more than the item is worth to you. Assuming you do not change your maximum. Sellers rely on people getting carried away. It always seems like just a few bucks more may get you the item. If I decide an item is worth $50 to me, and someone else is willing to pay $50.50, then he wants it more than I do and he can have it. The trick is really knowing what the thing is worth to you and how high you are willing to go, and not feeling regret if someone else is willing to pay more. You have not won if you pay more than it's worth to you. And that decision is easier to make calmly before you enter the bidding. It should not be a game of chicken, where staying in longer is the goal. Rather, it should be a rational negotiation to determine who values the item most.

    The nibbler will only get the item if he's willing to pay more for it than you are.
     
  4. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    Quite true, but it can be only one penny more*. How many people lose an auction by one penny and are sanguine with their maximum bid ? For that matter, what is the rational basis for a maximum amount I am willing to pay? Is 0.5% more *truly* too much ??

    Fwiw, I agree with your approach and act that way. I am just pointing out the interesting mechanics of Ebay bidding.

    I have wondered about my own motivations when I bid on Ebay, and I think the most important realization I have made is that I don't really care about winning *that* item, and that many more are available, including down the street at a store. Competition with other bidders will end badly. It keeps me from bidding foolishly.

    *Theoretically, anyway. Ebay requires that bids increase by a threshold minimum percentage.
     
  5. ftl

    ftl Explicator

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    Remember that the winning bidder might have bid much more than your high bid, so you never know if you lost by a dollar or a hundred dollars.

    The best strategy is to use a sniping program or service, which avoids the nibblers and also removes the temptation to increase your own bid. Put in your maximum bid, set the program to fire it off with a few seconds to go, and don't worry about the outcome.

    I've been buying and selling on eBay since 1996.
     
  6. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    Right, that is why I wrote *as little as* one penny.

    Sniping is my preferred method too, and kicks nibblers to the curb. But it is is vulnerable to stalkers (those who place a high bid early.)

    As I said: rock, paper, scissors.
    Years ago sniping was relatively rare and practiced by those who were informed. My anecdotal experience lately is that nibblers are now uncommon while snipers have become common. I'm pretty sure that programs that automate sniping are a good part of the reason why.
     
  7. ftl

    ftl Explicator

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    Agreed, but if you want to place a disciplined high bid it doesn't matter what technique the other bidders use. You will never pay more than your max, and you're immune to nibblers and to anyone who might be following your bidding habits (even though eBay obfuscates bidder IDs, it's possible to track them in some cases, particularly for long-time members).
     
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  8. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    Yep, although as I answered Daniel above, the notion of a 'disciplined high bid' is a state of mind, not an actual reasoned choice. It is obvious that this is so, if you do the thought experiment of asking yourself this question: if I know ahead of time that I only need to add one more penny to my 'max' bid to win, would I do it ?
     
  9. ftl

    ftl Explicator

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    But you can drive yourself crazy that way :(

    I usually watch the auction for a few days, see if there are any early bidders, and if the price is already too high I don't bother. Otherwise, a couple of days before the end I set up the sniping program with my max bid and forget about it. I end up winning about 50% of the auctions I bid on (should say I'm after old stuff rather than new).
     
  10. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    Indeed, so how do people like you and me resolve the conflict ?

    I'm not entirely sure it is the same for every person. In my case my 'max' bid is one that leaves me a little bit happy and a little bit sad whether I win or lose. I think. LOL
     
  11. ftl

    ftl Explicator

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    I'll go along with that! But sometimes there's a pleasant surprise when you win an item for far less than your maximum.
     
  12. JMD

    JMD 2012 Prius 4 Solar Roof

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  13. ftl

    ftl Explicator

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    The early days of eBay were fun, when it was just private sellers and mostly antiques and collectibles. You could see everyone's email address, make side deals, hang out with your friends. Then they went public, Meg Whitman became CEO and tried to turn it into another Amazon, and they really don't care about small sellers any more.

    But I'm up big bucks on their stock so I don't care :)
     
  14. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    It is also *much* more expensive, at least for casual infrequent sellers like me. Between (forced) Paypal and 'final value fees' I counted ~ 13%.

    I also notice that Ebay has tweaked the feedback to improve seller ratings. My 100% positive used to be quite unusual, but not anymore. Silly I think, since they have so much fraud.

    I actually put my gold iPhone up for auction this week and find myself caught unawares by an Ebay change that removes the 'buy it now' price upon the first bid. Uggh.
    I was also caught with my socks down by a (new for me) rule that effectively prevents me from canceling an auction once a bid has been tendered.

    All in all, I agree with ftl that Ebay has more than enough friction built-in now for me to avoid it by default in the future, at least as a place to sell something.
     
  15. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    NEWS for non-contract phone owners itching for LTE data:

    Net10 is offering pre-paid on the AT&T network: unlimited text and voice, 2.5 GB LTE and then unlimited throttled data for $50 a month. If the refills are bought online (callingmart.com is one example) taxes may be avoided, and it is pretty easy to snag a ~ 7% discount for a total monthly service charge of $46.5.

    Addendum: Straight Talk has changed the 3G to 4G as well. Not surprising, since both are owned by Trac Fone.
     
  16. JMD

    JMD 2012 Prius 4 Solar Roof

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    Not the latest phones though. IPhone 5 is the most recent. You also have to buy the phone for $500.
     
  17. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    I checked Straight Talk just now. They sell original sized and micro sized SIMs, but not the 'nano' sized the 5s requires. I am not sure what size the iPhone 5 or 5c use. I have found simple instructions on the internet to cut a micro-sized card down to nano, so I do not think there is any problem with using new phones including the iPhone 5s on this plan.

    Buy whatever phone you want. If the 5s is bought for $650, this works out to $27 a month for the phone over 24 months. Another ~ $43 for the plan, and an apples to apples comparison to AT&T contract is now possible*: $70 a month + SIM card** for the non-contract option, vs ~ $150 a month for the contract option in addition to $199 + activation fees.

    Wow.

    *Not exactly apples to apples. The AT&T contract plan is 3GB HS data, while the ST plan is 2.5 GB HS data.
    I have also read rumors (take with a grain of salt and a pound of FUD) that during congestion AT&T prioritizes their contract customers to 4G and throttles others. All I can say is, I hope it is true. Nothing like a whopping lawsuit and intense regulatory scrutiny and fines Vs AT&T to make my day.

    ** $15 through ST, a few dollars through Ebay.
     
  18. JMD

    JMD 2012 Prius 4 Solar Roof

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    I have ATT and a corporate discount of 15% off on a 450 minute plan, 200 text messageS and 300 GB paying $62 a month out the door includes taxes. The 5S costs $199 plus a $35 activation.

    I can increase the data plan to 3 Gig for an additional $8 a month.

    The senior plan is cheaper but I'm not eligible for a long time.
     
  19. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    JMD, is the $62 your total bill after taxes and fees ?

    I think I understand now why you bother with VoIP solutions -- you have limited minutes on your contract plan to keep the monthly charges down. Why do you pick the cheap plan if the phone is a company perk ?
     
  20. JMD

    JMD 2012 Prius 4 Solar Roof

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    Yes $62 is net


    The plan I have works for me on the voice and text side. Data can be a challenge. It fits into the limit I can expense. I may up my data to 3 gig since the months I go over on data I get charged another $20 less 15 %