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Ford shut down C-MAX and Fusion plant

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by bwilson4web, Oct 24, 2013.

  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    source: Ford sets two-week shutdown at Michigan Assembly Plant | The Detroit News

    Perhaps the 47/47/47 wasn't such a good idea.

    Bob Wilson
     
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  2. JimboPalmer

    JimboPalmer Tsar of all the Rushers

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    47/47/47 is a great idea, lying about meeting it was a bad idea.
    I keep expecting the EPA to make them lower it again.
     
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  3. rocketrob

    rocketrob Member

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    Why does this have to be bad news? It could downtime for the model year changeover and/or production line retooling. Nothing wrong with that.

    I drive a '07 Prius myself, and I am impressed by the Cmax.
     
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  4. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Having 120 day inventory (i.e., twice the normal 60 day supply) is not good. It means production outstripped demand.

    Bob Wilson
     
  5. rocketrob

    rocketrob Member

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    Do you know recent production rates? It could be that Ford built up inventory to meet demand while the factory is taken offline to retool. That suggests that sales are actually forecasted to remain steady, not lagging.
     
  6. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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  7. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Ford idling Michigan Assembly Plant to trim Focus, C-Max supply - Autoblog

    The drop in Sept. sales that everyone experienced is what seems to have sparked this, and I believe winter is a sales slow down for cars in general.
     
  8. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    There seem to be a number of these inventory stories that seem to be saying something they shouldn't. Ford appears to be doing very well managing their production and inventory. The shut down is part of this management. It is not an indication of the c-max and fusion doing worse than expectations. They both are doing better than the forecasts at the beginning of the year.

    60 days inventory is for a standard vanilla car like the focus, corrola, or malibu. That is not a good metric for a new model with a large percentage of its sales going to the plug-in.

    Hybrids and plug-ins which include things like prius, prius phv, fusion hybrid, fusion energi, have quite a bit more variability than the car market which itself has a great deal of variability. Sales for plug-in models even more loaded toward the end of the year, and changes in oil prices have a big effect on the cycle for hybrids. Oil prices have been falling, pr has been bad lately for the c-max, and the general hybrid market is in a slight downturn in September and October (we should see numbers a week from Monday to confirm). I would expect sales of the energi versions to be strong in the last quarter, but the hybrid versions may decrease if oil prices keep falling and Washington continues its mismanagement, pushing out car purchases because of uncertainty on the economy. These things would have me increase dealer stock of energi models, but cut hybrids substantially.
     
  9. fotomoto

    fotomoto Senior Member

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    Around here, gas prices have been in the bottom quarter of the $3 range for months and recently dipped into the $2 zone. Local Chevy dealer is putting in an additional side lot for more trucks. Wanna' buy a hybrid? NOW'S the time!
     
  10. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Curious, I had never considered the possibility of "fake inventory reports." Do you have a better number for C-MAX inventory?

    Bob Wilson
     
  11. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    The fake part of these reports is they always divide by the bad last month, not what the vehicle is likely to sell in the period, or its average sales rate. Maybe a better term is exaggerated. I changed it before you replied, because I didn't mean the raw number is fake, but the number of days. Its sensationalized. For a car like the c-max, a better figure for target inventory is 80 days, and they are at around 100 if we guestimate out lower sales for october, november, and january because of oil prices and a shift from c-max sales to the fusion/camry hybrid. It looks like they may have used c-max hybrid only and not included sales from the energi, but sales have been shifting to energi. You need a certain inventory at each individual dealer, and lower volume cars like the c-max energi need higher stock.

    Really this is about employees at a plant getting laid off for 2 weeks. They aren't losing there jobs. They get some income for those 2 weeks, and they are getting advance notice so they can plan.

    The bad old days in detroit inventory management, they would have kept working, then the dealerships would have the vehicles stack up. There would be big discounts. The car companies would lose money, and have to close the factory firing the employees. This is much better, although better still would be if they could keep them on, working on improving the factories while production is shut down.
     
  12. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Ok,
    Using a free subscription to Wards.com, they had this report as of October 2:
    Column 1
    0 [th]cars[th]light truck[th]light vehicles[th]supply
    1 [tr][td2]69[td2]71[td2]70[td]Day's supply
    2 [tr][td2]63[td2]64[td2]62[td]previous month
    Source: Wards.com, USSalesInvForecast1310.xls

    This Wards report suggests ~10% error. So if we apply that against a 120 day inventory, a 108 day inventory is nothing to shout about. But I also noticed the C-MAX seemed to have under performing sales compared to the other vehicles:
    [​IMG]
    The C-MAX started out with the 'middle' pack in June. But in July it went the wrong direction while the pack went up. August when the others had a peak, the C-MAX was flat. Then in September, C-MAX took another drop and seems to be leaving the middle pack and headed to the lower group. Just using the graphical data for the past three months, the C-MAX appears to have 'lost' ~3,000 units out of ~6,500 actual sales had it stayed with the middle pack.

    I'm open to better numbers for the C-MAX inventory but the sales numbers relative to the other hybrids and fuel efficient cars don't look good.

    Bob Wilson
     
  13. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    And I thought I explained why some cars should not have "average" inventory levels. I actually have consulted in supply chain for automotive. You aren't going to set the inventory level of a c-max energi at the same level as the corolla. One, if you are wrong with the corrola having 30 days too much inventory, you will have 25,000 cars piling up on dealers lots, you are going to lose a great deal of money. Its going to make the annual report. If you produce say 4000 too few corrolas, you simply raise the price at a few dealerships. No one gets mad at a stock out. For a c-max energi, if you produce too many by 60 days, you only have 1500 extra on dealer lots. If you have to ship them to other dealers, that know how to sell them, no big deal. If on the other hand you have 2000 too few, then dealers rebel against the plug-in, and don't want to sell them. A stock out here is costly. Its much easier to predict sales of a corolla versus a c-max energi, and sales hiccups on the energi can be taken in stride. Its a strategic vehicle. From a long corporate profit point of view the focus and explorer inventories are the important ones to watch closely. Ford seems to be handling the c-max as well as other inventory levels very well.

    Of course it has. It has gotten bad press, some of it deserved because of ford's marketing, some undeserved. The question really is will it look like the insight?

    Honda Insight Sales Figures - GOOD CAR BAD CAR
    Sales hit a huge snag at the time of the tsunami, then never recovered. Or will the c-max sales increase as better software goes in the car, and ford does better marketing. Those are quite different questions than inventory levels, which IMHO are quite well managed.


    The important thing to recognize when numbers are out of whack, is why these numbers are different. The c-max is selling much better than analysts predicted before launch. perhaps the natural levels are more like September sales of 2200 hybrids and energis. 4310 in december 2012 may have come simply from pent up demand, and at that time word wasn't really out about the real world mpg. Or maybe the 2200 is a temporary low based on backlash about previous advertising. IDK. The c-max seems to have been liked quite well by the reviewers, and has a niche out there. Its not going to 0. After 13 months of production, ford should have quality up, and manufacturing costs down compared to launch, and they also seem to have some better software for fuel economy.

    C-max problems have nothing to do with high inventory levels. One problem though mentioned is sales of the energi version might have a higher take rate, but some dealers don't have inventory.
     
  14. Dang, I read thread title quick and assumed that they were shutting down C-MAX production permanently (n)...
     
  15. cycledrum

    cycledrum PSOCSOASP

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    Maybe they can bring back Bob Brandt in Hybrid Games to pretend he's shooting the 'world renowned Physicist' who's just about to start talking about the Prius. Hurry Ford, get Bob to help with C-max sales. :rolleyes:
     
  16. redneckenvironment

    redneckenvironment New Member

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    No cars get what they are advertised, for example my prius has been getting below for the past week.
     
  17. JimboPalmer

    JimboPalmer Tsar of all the Rushers

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    It is very common to beat the EPA in a Prius, when driven well. In the thread where folks are asking you to fill out a questionnaire, do so and we will be able to recommend adjustments for your driving style.

    (Not everyone will beat the EPA numbers, as an example, rural mail delivery consists of repeated accelerating, then braking. Not going to meet EPA with that behavior, but the Prius will still be the most frugal car for that driver)

    Or you could just whine about it and never get help, your choice.
    Fuel economy complaints/queries? Please copy, paste & answer these questions, esp. if you're new | PriusChat
     
  18. Sergiospl

    Sergiospl Senior Member

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  19. rocketrob

    rocketrob Member

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    I'm wondering, what metrics are used to establish vehicle "reliability" in less than 1-year of ownership?

    Seems to me that reliability is measured over longer timescales.