Tesla Fire #3 - Stock Tumbles - Again

...the thing about the Model S we know the battery is bottom of car, car is low, and two of the accidents are hitting road debris...suggesting the barrier can get breached. Forget the Mexico accident, that was not same scenario. Is this just a one-in-million freak accident happening twice in a couple weeks? It could be, or Tesla could say different things happened in these two cases. Or it could suggest a weakness that could conceivably be relatively easily addressed by Tesla. So we give Tesla the chance to study the situation and hear what they have to say about it.

 

Model S fleet is up around 114 Million Miles, so about 1 fire per 38 Million miles.

 

From another thread, Elon Musk's response fire to Telsa Fire #1:

So with this rash of Tesla fires, the conventional cars are now merely 2 times more likely to catch fire than a Tesla.

From non-Musk sources, I'm seeing 3.25 trillion vehicle miles (Federal Highway Administration, 2011), and 187,500 vehicle fires (National Fire Protection Association, 2011) annually. So Musk's rounding is not unreasonable.

At first glance, Tesla can have 3 more fires tomorrow and still not be worse than average. But if we subtract the non-crash fires in conventionally fueled rigs (~75%) and also separate rates according to specific vehicles (I have no data), then maybe Tesla no longer looks better than many regular cars. But then the sample size is also too small to suggest much.

 

Cost and engineering tradeoffs. Same reason the Prius has a smaller gas tank than average.

 

If we're listing all the reasons, let's toss weight in there too.

And I get a kick out of how "average" has become such a relative & misleading term now. Even though the tank is "smaller", the range per refill is significantly larger. Measuring in terms of gallons rather than miles tells a different story.

Just imagine how confusing matters get when the battery's energy density changes significantly. We're definitely not familiar with comparisons in terms of kWh per cubic foot or meter. But that's already a factor starting to get attention.

 

One factor appears to be the fancy air suspension system which automatically lowers the car during highway speeds to improve aerodynamics among other things.

Although the drop in underbody clearance is not dramatic it appears to be just enough so that some objects in the road that are safely driven over by other cars end up damaging the Tesla and exposing the battery pack area to potential puncture.

 

If the Tesla is a viable product then the stock price will rebound.

I'd have to have more data (not to be confused with statistics!) to see if I'm going to sell off all of my Tesla stock, which at present wouldn't take very long since I don't have any.
This is mostly a one-percenter problem...which is OK, really.
Somebody needs to fund the development of this technology besides the humble taxpayer.

If you're an EV cheerleader?
Now is the time to buy stock!!!!

If you're an EV critic?
Now is the time to roll your eyes at the EV crowd and watch them flop and twitch.

Me?
I'm neither.....but it IS interesting to watch.
Three, Huh?

OK. But I'll bet they STILL sell every S-model that they make!

 

That will tell a lot, especially since Tesla is a specialty automaker.

Other automakers, like BMW, have stock whose price fluctuations send mix signals. The supposed initial impression with their first plug-in rollout is increased risk, souring the appeal to those who favored their tried & true traditional line up.

Of course, lack of diversity can burn an automaker too. (I know, bad pun.) So, Tesla's effort to offer more choices alone could positively influence stock value. Look at GM situation with Volt, the next step to branch out beyond a single engine/motor/battery configuration remains a mystery. That may not come until the third generation. Meanwhile, there's Ford, Toyota, and Tesla already positioned to take advantage of the changing market opportunity. Not being ready hurts.

Will Tesla offer more shares at some point to raise more investment capital?

 

haha - did!

 

Tesla's stock price is still high. Its forward PE is 238 versus 11 for toyota. The success for blue star is baked into the numbers.

I actually sold 1/4 of my stock earlier which was all the money I had invested, but yesterday, I bought in again at 134. The stock is less risky here, the when I sold. Telsa has hit some milestones.

GM and Nissan both credited tesla with their decission to invest in plug-in cars. If you think oil imports are a problem, then you should be concerned.

If you are a tea party politician that likes oil subsidies, then you can pretend we have plenty of oil, and the tax payer should pay and pay for that, much more in terms of tax dollars. But its politics.

Its still very high and risky. Invest only if you believe the story and can afford to take the risk. The time for cheerleaders to buy was a year ago. Now it should be limited to investors that can understand risks.

3 is a problem if there is a reason. I bought more telsa yesterday, because I believe if there is a problem the team will find it and fix it fast. This may slow production, but the stock is valued on future earnings, and if fires are a problem, the car needs to be fixed. GM added a brace to the volt, even though no driver actually had a fire, just the safety agency. I expect if there is a problem there will be a similar solution for tesla.

 

Because of the extra weight, cost, and it would defy their smaller is better stance.

From what exactly? Has there been a rash of shattered belly pans and scraped underside complaints that I have missed?
The Prius and PPI both sit lower than the Tesla.

Is the drop amount published anywhere? Has it been reported that the 2 cars were equipped with it?

The ground clearance for the S is listed as 6 inches. Which is around average for cars. That is with the side rails. There is another fraction of an inch for the battery plate. Other cars have gaps for exhaust and such that give debris somewhere to be deflected too. Anything getting knocked up into the underside would cause a racket. If a driver happened to miss seeing such an object, they would still know they hit something. How commonly does this happen?

This brings us back to the active suspension. I know it can raise the car 1.3in at low speeds. No luck finding a number for how low. I would think it wouldn't go lower than 4in ground clearance, simply because of road debris concerns. Tesla may be confident in the battery plate, but no need to risk complaints of damaged front belly pans and bumper shrouds. Four inches is higher than the C6 Corvette's ground clearance.

If the ride height with the active suspension is believed to be an issue, it is just software to fix limiting the amount of lower.

 

perhaps an onboard fire suppression system. adding a impact triggered foaming system that suppresses battery and/or gasoline fueled fires would be a plus. not sure if the same foam could address both. maybe the foaming system could be a reactant with the cooling fluid.

 

I've seen the drop amount referenced on teslamotorsclub.com but I don't have the number handy right now. It was in the neighborhood of an inch meaning that the Corvette C6 is likely even lower.

My impression is that the majority of existing Tesla S cars on the road have the air suspension since the early cars all had it and many cars are optioned up. I'm not sure whether it has been definitively determined whether either or both of the recent U.S. cars with battery fires had air suspensions.

 

good point!

 

i think the point is, or my point anyway, is there a weak spot in tesla design, or are 3 fires below average or is it just an anomoly? time will tell. i wouldn't be concerned about driving one.

 

Considering that everyone has walked away, why would you be more concerned than with a Prius?

sorry, mis-read your post.

 

right, not overly concerned, just wondering why 3 fires so far, and none with pip. not sure about leaf, volt, etc.

 

I think we had some reports of PiP issues during Hurricane Sandy new cars arriving on docks dunked in ocean water, same time the Fiskars had worse issues for the same reasons.