Will Falling Gas Prices Be Bad For The Climate?

Transportation is about 27% of global fossil C, driving a lot more might make that 28%. I don't see a lot of leverage. However, sustained availability of low-price crude oil and methane may make R&D and investment in renewables look less attractive. There's the leverage, but it will take some time.

Another aspect (which one would have expected Grist to talk about ) is preferential tax treatment. Both fossil C and renewables get that, though the latter is much larger (unless you talk to the American Petroleum Institute). Either or both could be affected in the long term, and there could be strong leverage there.

Wait and see how it is spun in the media. This seems much more important than plain old data and evidence. Sigh.

 

Oh but you said climate. Latest publication I have seen on this

Goodwin et al. Nature Geoscience 10.1038/NGEO2304

suggests that 1000 petagrams of cumulative carbon emission raises temperature by something in the range of 0.8 to 2.5 oC. Now, the fossil C burn is about 10 petagrams per year. A whole lot of additional driving could raise that to 11, maybe. All that being the case, the answer would be 'no'. Actually this approach makes a few petagrams, here or there, seem rather inocuous. So watch for Goodwin on the affinity websites

However if we shift to a lower gear in terms of transitioning to renewable E, then the answer might change to 'yes, maybe a little'. over longer times, 'you betcha'.

Takes decades. But as we have discussed here before, there are benefits to renewable E other than net CO2. Health benefits (small particles and mercury). Less drillage and spillage. Putting hoaxy scientists in charge of the world economy! Bwahaha!

 

Based upon what we see in the Dashboard reports, it looks like about 2% of new car buyers have always been interested in efficient cars. That higher gas prices leads the marginal buyers to join us is good but transient. But as resource limits are approached, price and availability fluxuates around the "Goldilocks" value. Too high, demand goes down but it often leads to new technology or outsourcing. Too low, production is hurt and marginal sources are left alone . . . like the oil royalty checks I used to get.

Bob Wilson

 

I don't know if I'm atypical, but my attraction to getting good fuel economy seems for the most part to be the challenge. The month-to-month cost is largely immaterial, I mean: we're spending all of $35 a month on gas, very low usage. Fluctuations in pump price just don't interest me.

 

Gas prices below $2 a gallon in Texas, Oklahoma - Yahoo News

Auto manufactures have committed to efficiency and this is yielding great ideas like aluminum F-150. Low gaso prices may cause some slowness in CAFE improvements, but progress will continue. Advances in transport technology has been a bright spot in the R&D space. Basically, the auto industry has adopted a more cooperative approach, less adversarial approach, with CAFE improvements. In the past they would have fought it tooth and nail and not done anything. Not to say the Obama 52 MPG CAFE deadline is doable, but they're working on it.

Gaso taxes up: I think we will see lots of states take the opportunity raise gasoline taxes to help balance their budgets and create infrastructure jobs. On a Federal level, maybe inaction on gaso taxes, but if prices stay low enough, maybe the Feds add a little tax. Virginia we changed our gaso tax to % of wholesale, so our tax is going down for the moment. Believe VA, MD, PA changed to % wholesale on gaso taxes. But the old cents per gallon approach makes more cent$ suddenly!

 

The answer to the opening question is probably affected a lot more by government decisions instead of consumer decisions.

 

now would be a good time to refill our emergency oil reserves.

 

I don't care about the climate, but my wallet sure loves it!!!