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CA Green HOV Sticker Limit 55,000 Effective Immediately

Discussion in 'Gen 1 Prius Plug-in 2012-2015' started by bilofsky, Jun 20, 2014.

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  1. greenleaf

    greenleaf Member

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    I suspect the exponential growth are not from buyers submitting in the applications. Rather, it is due to the dealers grabbing all the stickers they can, as soon as a VIN number is available, even if the cars are still on a cargo ship.
     
    #41 greenleaf, Aug 26, 2014
  2. Mike-GS400

    Mike-GS400 Junior Member

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    Woohoo! I got my HOV "Green" stickers today, #528XX. For those still waiting, or are curious about DMV processing times, here's my timeline:

    8/15 - Purchased Prius Plug-In
    8/18 - License Plate # issued
    8/19 - Mailed HOV application
    8/26 - DMV cashed $8 check
    8/30 - Received HOV "Green" stickers
     
    #42 Mike-GS400, Aug 30, 2014
  3. bilofsky

    bilofsky Privolting Member

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    I think the growth is due to (1) processing all the applications that were held until the limit was raised, and (2) yes, the dealers.

    I've said it before, but it's a shame that DMV distorted the process by letting the dealers back into the program.

    AB 2013, raising the limit to 70,000, was enacted and will probably be signed shortly, but it won't take effect until January 1, 2015. So the stickers will run out temporarily early this fall and the dealers will have another few months to reap a windfall markup from the stickers on their inventory.

    And then when the limit goes up to 70,000 it will happen for a third time.
     
    #43 bilofsky, Aug 31, 2014
  4. bilofsky

    bilofsky Privolting Member

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    Gov. Brown signed AB 2013 the other day as expected, so the limit will go to 70,000 effective Jan. 1.

    Meanwhile, back at the DMV, the 55,000 ceiling will be reached around Oct. 17 at the current rate. The rate seems to be slowing slightly - maybe the dealers are all stocked up now - so it might be a little later. OTOH back in March the dealers woke up and hoovered up a ton of stickers; see graph below.

    Then we get to do it all over again next year. The 70,000 will probably run out around March or April.

    Again, DMV should turn off the dealer program and let the stickers go to those buyers who actually want them.

    [​IMG]
     
    #44 bilofsky, Sep 23, 2014
    lensovet and wjtracy like this.
  5. mudman

    mudman Junior Member

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    [​IMG]

    I updated my calculation of when we will run out of the new 70,000 green decal sticker limit. Check it out ...

    Interestingly there was a significant up-tick of issued stickers as we got close to previous limit of 55,000 and the limit was reached a good month and a half before my linear prediction graph told us it would ... learning from that, we can expect another significant up-tick neat 70,000 which means we will likely hit 70,000 1.5 months before the new straight line prediction of June 10th 2015. That means we will likely hit 70,000 near early April 2015! (ie. night about now!!!)
     
    #45 mudman, Mar 31, 2015
    SAronian, rxlawdude, Tracksyde and 1 other person like this.
  6. electrode

    electrode Junior Member

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    Not much many green stickers issued in March, the count as of April 8th is 63,255 . Does anybody who recently applied for the stickers share the timeline, how long from the time you applied for the stickers did you get it?
     
    #46 electrode, Apr 13, 2015
  7. bilofsky

    bilofsky Privolting Member

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    Here's my latest graph. Based on the last month only, they should run out around the middle of July.

    The last two times, there was a bulge, probably from dealers pre-ordering, starting about 2 1/2 months before they actually ran out. The 40,000 date was pretty close to the projection prior to the bulge. 55,000 was reached on 10/3/14, faster than the historical rate would have predicted, but looking at the curve over time, it appears that that bulge pre-supplied dealers with stickers to smooth out the months between then and the resumption of issuance on January 1, 2015, because the line is pretty straight if that second bulge is ignored.

    Will the dealers soon start pre-ordering ahead, creating a bulge that will bring Doomsday closer? Or do they routinely pre-order now, in which case it'll be pretty much a straight line to mid-July? Stay tuned.

    And let's hope for an update sooner than the 6 weeks the last one took.

    [​IMG]
     
    #47 bilofsky, Apr 13, 2015
  8. se-riously

    se-riously Active Member

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    My guess is that they will not pre-order as much as in the past, simply because gas prices remain low for now. As a dealership, I would pre-order more CUV's because of their high turnover and profitability.
     
    #48 se-riously, Apr 13, 2015
  9. CharlesH

    CharlesH CA HOV Decal #5 on former PiP

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    How much say do the dealers have with respect to what they get? I thought that the factory told them what their allocation of various models was based on factors such as prior sales by that dealership. :confused:
     
    #49 CharlesH, Apr 14, 2015
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