Toyota engineer explains how long range EV's aren't practical

He is talking about peak loads...as noted in his article. The grid has to supply the maximum demand, which means you have to have a 500kw source, even if you only use a fraction of the watt-hours. Utilities have charged peak load costs for many years. The issue is the rapid charge times that consumers will expect. EV's are currently not a viable replacement for hybrid technology, and probably won't be for many years. As is quoted on PC, physics is physics.

 

Peak loads cannot be figured as average of 1000-houses loads. Different perspective of same units surely may not give a correct statement.

EVs are limited to a certain range. Hybrid technology are not.
What if range is a non-issue...like a urban commute? And regarding pipetail emissions, zero locally? Still not a viable replacement?

 

You are changing the parameters of the discussion.

The original premise centered around "long range" EVs.......and a LOT of them, theoretically becoming the dominant vehicle of choice.

In other situations, the conclusion would be different.

 

The other poster stated EV were not a viable replacement, as quoted in my post...

 

He, and others, were talking about a COMPLETE replacement.

I don't think anybody disputes that an EV would be a better choice in some fairly narrow circumstances.

Maybe something is being lost in the translation here ??

 

The reason some are still talking about it is some people still don't get it. This discussion at least is still on the facts where that other one went way off the rails.

I think as mentioned earlier the main thrust of the false comparison was plug-ins won't sell because long range plug-ins will require too much peak power. That is one reason toyota says fuel cell vehicles will beat plug-ins.

The first problem as mentioned is he is comparing average household draw to peak future super fast bev draw. Now in the US a large percentage of charging is at night off peak, and Japan with its troubles after fukushima has more incentive to push people to change off peak. There you look at average versus average not peak versus average. Such a car described would require only 2100 kwh/year @6200 japanese average miles, that works out to an average draw of only 0.24 watts. Japan can easily and affordably build infrastructure for the peak of charging these cars. I estimate it would cost less than $2000/car ($200/car/year if amortized over 10 years) to build ccgt infrastructure to provide peak to these cars and stabilize the grid. That is assuming 10% of cars charge completely at the peak 10 hours of the week.

Now we can break it down,but there are 3 types of plug-in vehicles - phevs, short range bevs, and long range bevs. When you are thinking about plug-in market share you need to think about all three, not only the long range bevs.

Japan has the highest penetration of hybrids at around 4M vehicles out of about 70M on Japanese roads, which has taken over 17 years. I can't imagine 8 million plug-ins in 2 years to "kill the grid". A pace of 8 million over the net 10 years seems fast indeed. Let;s use that as an outsides estimate with 4 million of them needing this 500 kw peak (current peak charging in japan is 50kw). If we say 10% of 4M x 500kw /(10 hours peak in a week) you need to build 20 GW of new peak, or 2 GW a year. If you think more cars with charge in that peak 10 hours than the other 158 in the week, simply charge more, cans will move or you will have plenty of cash to build renewables and ccgt plants to raise the peak. 2 GW of peak power is very easy for Japan to build. After there are 4 M long range bevs on the road, battery swap is definitely practical. If they turn some of the nukes back on they have build in a lot of this peak capacity.

The number is only scary if you assume an incredibly fast penetration of long range plug-ins. When you realize there will only be about 60,000 long range plug-ins sold this year, you realize how unfounded the fear is.

 

Maybe not if they are concentrated in only 3 or 4 major geographic locations.

 

Even in a portuguese forum, which I pretty understand, I shave all rough statements. My bad if it seems off-topic, but I use quotes for that reason.

Also those fairly narrow circunstances are greater that you point them to be...

 

Well they are concentrated, but not in broken grid japan. The main concentration is California, with concentrations in southern and northern. Northern california has plenty of peak power for the 135kw, probably to service millions of long run plug-ins.

Southern california still has not rebuilt its safety margin to peak from shutting down 2.3 GW of nuclear power at san onofre. It probably has a grid suitable to supply around 1M teslas. It should be building capacity locally though to reduce grid congestion. Put 1 M long range bevs down in LaLa land, without grid upgrades and we can be down to black outs again. Still adding the peak power is much cheaper in california than japan. Southern California can build 2.3 GW of ccgt for about $2.8B, and probably drop the cost of energy to local consumers because the power wouldn't need to be imported from out of state. California is part of the western grid, which is well maintained and huge,with many improvements since deregulation in california caused black outs. Still even california needs quite affordable grid improvements to get millions of plug-ins charged efficiently. Not a break the grid type problem.

 

OK, hands up who wants to pay $60k/€60k,£60k for a Mirai?

 

4 seats mid size? Better to pay €80k for a 250kw 7 seat full size Tesla Model S @ €3/100km, not doing miles for fill-up (charging at home).

 

" IF's "
if the sun went super nova ... we'd all fry
if all cars were fuel cel ... we'd all be making over $120,000 in order to afford 'em ... and ... there wouldn't be enough natural gas to convert
if we all cared for our fellow man, we wouldn't have wars ...
if we could invent Mr Fusion, we'd have enough power to have 100% EV's

Most importantly
if Toyota/Lexus didn't think we were so stupid that we need to overstate such obvious "givens" ... then Toyota/Lexus wouldn't have to overstate obvious givens.

Or maybe That's NOT Toyota rational for saying dumb things. The more I think about it, the more Toyota/Lexus' logic here appears to be the same as their prior commercials/ads. Remember?
"Plugins are ok if you have 4 hours to waste"

Subtle fear. I think THAT's the goal! "Gee ... plugins may eventually pull down the grid!! They must be therefore a bad idea."
Also - if Toyota/Lexus plugin fear makes them a bad idea, that can hopefully make hydrogen more acceptable ... maybe make more countries invest in it (so they won't have to) and so the hydrogen car will at LEAST have a snowball's chance in hell of getting cheaper thru mass production. Toyota/Lexus fears the better/EV idea will become so mainstream eventually, there won't ever be a snowball's chance of FC numbers growing and cars getting cheaper.

Thank you Toyota/Lexus ~ you've helped us decide. We couldn't have done it without you, and the dialogue you helped inspire here and elsewhere played a huge part ;


Like Bob Wilson's footer says - "skin in the game"
Keep up the great PR campaign Toyota!

.

 

Questions?

When do you get it?

Will you put a Priuschat.com sticker in the back?

Will you still be hanging around this forum?

 

1) as soon as it's available

2) nope

3) yup.

4)

 

1) "she who must be obeyed" might let me take it to the car wash. We're @ the back of the wait list - mabe months after the first arrivals.
2) "swmbo" might let me - I try & sneak a PC.com sticker on every car i drive;


3) yup still be here - too many good peeps ...

 

this could be my next car, depending on a number of factors.

 

Consider the messenger. And the timing and platform from which the message is being delivered.

"While promoting the Toyota Mirai, Yoshikazu Tanaka, chief engineer for Toyota Motors Corp’s hydrogen fuel cell group"

This is promotion.

It's "a" truth, based on a very specific POV, designed to make hydrogen fuel cells look better than EV technology.

Is it a Big Picture truth?

Absolutely not. Yoshikazu Tanaka cannot predict the future of either EV technology and infrastructure development, nor the total future of his own supported Hydrogen Fuel Cell vehicles.

Basically, it's The Chief Engineer for Toyota's Hydrogen Fuel Cell Group, saying exactly what you would expect.

 

You cannot turn around without reading a study beating up on the electric car nowadays.

 

Not really. Built into the EV criticism is an arbitrary prediction of all future battery technology. The arbitrary prediction is today's limitation on battery charging times will remain the same indefinitely. What happens when a battery charge can be done in 5 minutes instead of 30 minutes? One by one, the list of "showstopper" battery issues is being continuously whittled away. Price is going down, Telsa (and other EV) ranges are expanding. Meanwhile battery charging times are also getting less.

 

I do not know;

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