Featured 2016 Chevy Volt Attack Ads target LEAF, Prius!

Downplay of the larger goal is the typical response... here, online.

Attend one of our local EV meetings. They take the lost opportunity seriously.

 

bobb, you are like a reformed smoker.

 

And left over, older inventory.

Bob Wilson

 

Are you replying to me or to someone else's post? I'm just trying to be realistic and place longer term goals in a plausible context. Most plugin cars today are not being cross-shopped against cheap large volume conventional cars. They just aren't. That's not realistic yet. We're on a path to nirvana but it's a long road trip.

 

The discussion is about gen-2 offerings and their intended audience.

That's sales from roughly 2016 through 2020.

What's realistic for them?

 

I suspect we will see increasing sales for plugins generally as new manufacturers enter the market and start ticking down their 200,000 vehicle federal tax credit quota while others eventually take the exit rampdown after exceeding that limit. GM and Nissan etc. will likely hit a dry patch toward the end of that period after their tax credits run out as some buyers switch to competitors with credits still available.

Buyers, mostly coming from a background of familiarity with non-plug hybrids, will be cross-shopping plugins against each other. The vacuum they leave behind in the non-plug hybrid market will be filled by conventional car owners taking baby steps toward electrification.

That's my prognostication. What's yours?

 

I get the impression Nissan isn't going to just watch the tax-credits expire and let others capitalize on the opportunity. They'll be working hard to push profitable choices within this gen-2 stage (the next 5 years). So, we'll end up with mainstream sustainability prior to whatever the end of 2020 brings. Meanwhile... Toyota, Ford, Honda, and Hyundai will be doing the same thing, all trying to achieve high-volume on their own.

That's why GM remains such a head-scratcher with Volt. The fact that GM kept Volt on the expensive side and left it a compact leaves it at a disadvantage for competing with both traditional & plug-in. And it really looks like they are spreading the risk by throttling back the EREV approach and diversifying instead. After all, with Bolt supposedly going after Nissan & Tesla offerings, it will dip into the tax-credit reserve Volt depends upon. There's also the unknown with whatever becomes of the CT6 plug-in configuration.

In short, it plays out in the next few years... this generation.

Like I said before, there are those who see no reason to wait anymore. These gen-2 rollouts are what the market has been waiting for. The technology is proven already.

 

An automatic transmission built around a manual transmission where the shifter gears are driven by a 10-20 hp (7.5-15 kW) motor generator would work. This is also the engine starter.

The control software has the following modes:

• STARTING ENGINE
  • MG_motor connects to engine and disconnected from drive shaft, start engine
• ACCELERATION
  • MG_motor augments engine power to drive shaft
• CRUISE
  • Battery low, MG_generator taps power to recharge traction battery above minimum
  • Battery high, MG_motor powers drive wheels with Engine_OFF if vehicle needs less than 7.5-15 kW
  • Oscillate between these cruise modes
• DECELERATE
  • Engine_OFF, MG_generator taps power from drive shaft to recharge battery
• PARKING OFF
  • MG_generator connects to engine and a peak charge put into traction battery

The control law goal is the engine runs ONLY to warm-up, minimum burn, and otherwise switches between OFF and load+(7.5-15 kW). At no time does the engine drive the car unless the load exceeds 7.5-15 kW. Then it normalizes the traction battery SOC and uses it for short-time acceleration and deceleration.

The enemy is running any engine at low power less than the MG+traction battery capacity. The reason is the engine mechanical overhead is the enemy. Turn it off at every opportunity and run it at a power level to drive the car and more if needed to charge the SOC.

In a perfect world, there would be:

1. Minimum - enough MG+traction battery energy to warm-up engine while moving at 35 mph.
2. Optional larger - sell MG+traction battery like a larger engine displacement.
3. Final - just MG+traction battery, no engine or gas tank.

Bob Wilson

 

Yup, but next time... might want to post more pertinent, viable data. Yes- October sales were way down for the Volt. Why? Because that was the last month for the outgoing first gen Volt. The new Volt has been out for about 3 weeks and the sale of the NEW model ( note not the old model as you reported ) have indeed surged...

Your one and only argument so far ( I think ) has been over what the Volt costs to make versus what it sells for. As in it costs more to make than what the customer pays meaning GM eats that additional cost. If that is your case then I'm guessing you felt the same for the first and even 2nd generation Prius since it too was more costly to manufacture than what it sold for. This is nothing new in technology and development. But as seen costs come down... don't they? As such the Prius now makes a profit per sale, which in time will be the case with the Volt.

Glad that you're not in the automotive biz. So you really think that GM, Toyota, Nissan and BMW are all buddy-buddies when it comes to Plug-in cars? They're just doing this out of the goodness of their hearts to "remove" polluting vehicles from the roads? Interesting seeing as how all of those companies above make their largest profits via selling large SUVs and full size trucks. Sorry but that's not how a business works. These guys are all in competition with one another.

But let me delve into this a bit further. One of the many reasons a company would offer such a product as the Prius, Leaf or Volt is as even mentioned by Mr. Lutz whom spearheaded the Volt program was in doing so thus generates positive PR and goodwill among consumers. GM was known as the "bad ole' GM", who only made Hummers and big honkin' trucks with crappy plastic interiors. You know what? It works. I owned absolutely but Toyotas from the time I turned 16 on. I was perhaps one of the most Loyal Toyota owners around and vehemently defended the Prius for years. But let me tell you something: When I switched over to the Volt the difference is night and day. But in essence the Volt is a much nicer car than the Prius and on top of that the tech inside is more advanced. So I switched over to a company that just a few years prior I disdained.

All of that taught me a lesson. Brand loyalty is often pointless. The consumer has a choice. Go for the best product with the best technology and in the end that means even more rapid development of better tech as the various companies compete with one another to win over consumers. Perhaps someday Toyota will come back with an even better product than the Volt at which point I'd be a happy customer.

 

Volts' yearly sales numbers are sliding each passing year, when tax credits disappear, I expect the Volts sales number will crash.

http://www.insideev.com

DBCassidy

 

John, I totally agree with you on the Volt - it is a head scratcher. Maybe the Bolt will have better sales numbers than the shrinking numbers for the Volt?

Perhaps GM has their head where the sun doesn't shine?

DBCassidy

 

The final year of gen-1 Prius made a profit. Gen-2 never lost any money and was an immediate top-seller... all without a tax-credit. We expected Volt gen-2 to follow a similar path. It hasn't, not in any sense of business sustainability, which is the goal.

As for who the competition is, you're right about the cross-automaker pressure. But since GM had bet the farm on Volt alone, that's been the problem. And as hoped, the risk is being spread to several offerings now instead... hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and EV.

Remember, Volt gen-2 is really gen-3 Two-Mode, so it's not like time hasn't been available and this wasn't seen coming with CARB/EPA requirements.

 

i guess it's just us dumb folks still buying toyota's.

but actually, what 'mr. lutz' meant, was that it would bring goodwill to gm, and help drive overall sales. not that people would switch from prius to volt.

 

The initial price of the gen2 Volt dropped nearly $10k from the gen1's starting price. I don't think it will need another decade of credits. With the expected increase in sales, and arrival of the Bolt, the federal credits likely won't last the 5 years of the gen2 Volt's run though.

 

Gen1 Volt started at $40k. Gen2 at $34k. That's $6k reduction. The pressure is on to reduce $4k from Gen3 Volt. Then, it would meet the price of the concept Volt (comfortably under $30k).

 

The 2011 Volt MSRP was $40,280 with a $720 destination charge making it $41,000.

The 2016 Volt MSRP is $33,170 with an $825 destination fee making it $33,995. That's a different of $7,000 (minus $5).

Now, convert $41,000 from 2010 to 2015 inflation adjusted dollars using the bls.gov inflation calculator and it becomes $44,740.

$44,740 - $33,995 is a price drop of $10,745 in today's dollars.

 

whew! 9% inflation in 5 years? good thing gas is down.

 

MSRP goal was nicely under $30k.

 

Again, inflation.Today's MSRP of $33.170 was $28,900 back when Lutz made that statement back in 2007.

If you assume he was predicting future inflation adjusted dollars that would be used in 2010 when the Volt prices were announced and the car first went on sale then today's MSRP would be like $30,400 back then.

That target has roughly been accomplished.

 

John, I got a tax credit on two of my Gen 2 Prius.