Featured Tesla exec tells it like it is

A Tesla S with the most popular options goes for $83K after state and federal incentives. Not sure if the delivery and doc fee of $1.2k is included.

Source: Revealing the Most Popular Tesla Model S Configurations - TESLARATI.com

 

honestly, how many people are looking at it from an engineering viewpoint? you're fortunate to be able to do that. the rest of us just keep looking at the monthly sales charts.

 

There is a big difference between predicting the future and planning for the future. I am not very good at monthly predictions. I too have to look at the monthly sales charts to see how the future is progressing in the short term. Planning is a different story. Gas is going to become an extinguishing resource. You know that just as well as I do.

Seeing what the best choice has to be done when the choice is needed (e.g. when the 2001 expires for me) since I don't know what the choices will be years from now. What I do know is the EV options will be far greater (if not great).

 

That's from last year, before the D and the 70 were available

Now a base 70D is $76,200 before tax credits including desination and fees, or $66,200 - $68,700 depending on your state after credits. Its nicely equipped but you can add a lot of pricey options. Time moves on. The 70D gets 25 fewer epa miles (240 vs 265) but adds all wheel drive and higher electrical efficiency, giving it a better value than the 85. Now it really is between the 70 rwd, 70D, 90D, or P90D.

 

agreed. while many of us have been hearing about the end of fossil fuels for 40 years, not many people seem to care.

 

Doubtful. This is just a myth that got put out there by the anti-EVers and people have repeated it, unknowingly spreading the myth.

Once there are millions of EVs, most people will recharge nightly just because it is convenient. But most can be gently nudged to do this most of the time by a good time-of-use rate schedule. The only possible issue in terms of capacity is on a hot summer afternoon and how much extra capacity is needed on those days.

The typical person owning an EV in the next 10-15 years is going to be commuting to work. Most people have a commute of 50 miles, total per day. The outliers above this will still have an ICE car. The average will be far less than 50 miles...but let's just pick 30 miles. At 3 miles per kwh that is just 10 kwh per commuter per day. In my Leaf I get 4.8 to 5.0 miles/kwh.

IMO, as long as people are mildly educated enough (by giving them lower rates at night) the current grid can handle many millions of EVs. This isn't to say that we don't want to do any grid upgrades...but most people are getting smart meters (that can to TOU metering) already...primarily because it means meter readers don't have to walk around to read your meter.

Until I recently got solar PV installed (which helps to fix the hot summer afternoon problem) I was on a PG&E Smart rate plan where I got lower summer rates ($0.02 - 0.03 lower) in exchanged for getting notified a day in advance of a critical day when I'd get charged ~5x the normal rate from 2pm - 7pm. Smart meters and email/text notifications can make the grid more stable this way.

Mike

 

as the grid becomes more weighted to solar, night time availability will drop.

 

what do chargers have to do with car sales not being available in TN?

There are tons of chargers around me. I didn't complain about a lack of chargers.

You did or Bisco did but don't push that strawman on me.

I'm talking about car manufacturers not willing to sell a car in TN that they sell in CA.

Or are you intentionally ignoring my point so you can pretend I'm daft and you are a genius?

 

sounds right.

 

I am speaking of Hyundai USA. Yes Hyundai had the assistance of Mitsubishi with motors and drivetrains, but Hyundai did not sells cars in the USA until 1986. So yes, in 20 years they want from a crappy car to being right on the heals of Toyota, and Honda. I am not a big Hyundai fan, probably because I remember the Excel and had one! Sold it at 30,000 miles, never had any issues with it. But it could barely climb hills.

You know that Elon Musk had the help of Toyota and Mercedes with resources of cash and engineering. But most importanly they have had the help of the US government with incentives.

No one is calling Elon Musk stupid, he is a pioneer in his own right. But why not create a car for the masses right out of the box. You know like Henry Ford did. It seems to have worked out for Ford, Fiat, BMW, and many other automobile manufactures who first made economical cars. I know its hard to believe but there are people who don't want to drive a status symbol. Tesla is now a status symbol!

 

That is the thing... Elon does not believe selling from bottom up works. That is why "hill" says to get proof that selling an EV with $30k batteries on a $30k car works. Last time I checked Henry Ford did not build an EV. And EV was out there when Henry Ford built the Model T.

FYI. The replacement battery of my Rav4EV is $38k. I bought this car for $33k OTD after all the incentives. Toyota's price to make this car is about $100k.

 

I dont recall Hill saying that? You said the magic words incentives. Without incentives no one would buy an EV. The RAV4EV is around $60K, and as you say Toyota is losing money on these cars, they are also loosing money on the Mirai, and who knows the Prius maybe a money pit for Toyota as well. Back in the day of Henry Ford, EV were for women, who did not like to crank a car to start and were clean unlike the more popular gas engine cars of the day.

 

It's only fair to point out GM and Chrysler had a lot more government help than Tesla ever did with incentives. They got bailed out entirely on the taxpayers back via a financial mechanism created out of thin air. Meanwhile, the help of Toyota and Mercedes was because Tesla actually had a world class product they did not have but needed badly. It's no different than me "helping" Toyota via buying a lot of Pri.

 

I think you got it backwards, Tesla needed the technology from Toyota and Mercedes. From their help Tesla made motors that now surpass electric motors that Toyota or Mercedes are making,

 

uh... when was the Rav4ev $60k?

 

List $50k and I saw one priced at $58k.

 

I'm on a rate plan with predetermined times (Example: In the winter on weekdays I run things from 1 to 4 in the afternoon or after 9 at night) that saves about $50 a month. All my major appliances (hot water heater, dryer, a/c units, dish washer, etc) are linked together via a $1k controller and their use controlled because I not only pay more for each kw of energy I use during peak times but I pay more for what my peak use was during the month.

Now how does that fit with the need of an EV to plug in and charge? Suppose I want to go out again at night time and I've already used up my juice with a morning run. That might mean choosing to exceed my limits or go without HVAC in the house.

I could go back to the round the clock plan but the time of use plan saves me enough over a year to buy all the gas I use with the savings.

If I could depend on only needing to charge at night (the commuter car) it would work but not everyone does.

 

That sounds made up. Tesla didn't change motors when they got investments from big auto.

Tesla needed the cash from Mercedes to get the model S done when it got done. It might have been delayed a year without that investment. The money/engineering deal with toyota helped tesla's IPO be valued higher, helping the original investors and principals retain more equity. Toyota made a $630 M capital gain on the stock. During the RAV4 EV and mercedes b-class Electric drive, Tesla learned some manufacturing techniques from Toyota and Mercedes, and Toyota learned things about more rapidly developing vehicles. The technology transfer went from Tesla to Toyota, but knowledge transfer went both ways. The engineering cultures were quite different and clashed, but both chairman of the board Uchyamada and tesla owner and toyota ceo akio toyoda said that toyota gained valuable knowledge.

When you look at all the profits toyota made on the tesla relationship, its hard to think this wasn't a great deal. Mercedes has an ongoing relationship.

First the RAV 4 EV with all options was never that high, and yes when Toyota anounced the price it was assumed it was priced to make a manufacturing profit. The details of the deal made it so toyota would have to be making a manufacturing profit, as the price of a rav4 + tesla's parts was far less than the cost of the car. Because they planned to sell so few the profits would not cover R&D though. Toyota targeted it to only sell in compliance numbers. R&D is valuable for the future of any car company, and toyota spent very little on R&D compared to the canceled EQ project it had planned to garner ev credits. Of course toyota priced the rav4 EV too high, some say on purpose, and then discounted it. If they had priced it lower at the beginning, and addressed owner complaints earlier then it likely would have been even better.

The gen I prius lost money. Gen II made money. Gen III made large proftis, and I would expect large profits from gen IV. Where does this prius maybe a money pit for toyota come from. When you include the R&D and marketing advantages its been a huge profit center.

The RAV4 EV project was highly profitable to toyota.

 

That is like calling the Prius a $30,000 car.

 

Gen 3, model 4.....