Why I won't buy a Tesla Model 3

Your lack of planning that puts you in a "rush" does not constitute an emergency on my part. However, If my car is charging and you come to me and say, "I am in a rush" I will happily unplug my T3 so that you can continue to "rush" throughout your life.

Realize that Tesla estimated range is based on a speed of 65 mph. The fact that you are in a "rush" and driving at 80 mph means that you will not achieve the range that is projected by Tesla. I will be the guy in the far right lane driving 60 mph in my T3 and exceeding Tesla range projections and most of the time I will get to the same destination as you within minutes.

 

Anomaly? March is our snowiest month historically.

Planning wouldn't help when you have kids who aren't going to put up with a half hour delay sitting in a parking garage. My destination was the street in front of our family's house, 200 feet from the nearest plug, which is inside a closed garage behind the house.

 

Exactly, I'm not a huge supporter of Hydrogen, but Toyota has a point about long charging times, of even the Superchargers, being a huge drawback to EV's. The existing network may handle the small number of electric cars on the road (and even then, it's showing some strain), but multiply that by 5-10 fold, and you got a huge bottleneck on your hands; when reports start coming out of people waiting hours to charge their cars, it'll be a huge turn off.

 

The speed limit along my route is mostly 75mph, and there are several significant altitude changes including a pass the starts at 5400 feet and ascends to 7800 feet. There's usually a cross wind because we are driving perpendicular to the drainage winds off the rocky mountains.

I'll soon go on a trip where driving 60 instead of 75 will add around 10 driving hours and two days to the trip.

 

It's mainly only a bottleneck in places where local owners are charging frequently (and leaving their vehicles unattended). The worst locations have already been relieved on several occasions with new chargers. There is not a linear relationship here with the increased number of vehicles based on the fact that charging predominately takes place at home.

If all you naysayers can point to any notable percentage of people reverting back to an ICE after owning an EV of Telsa's caliber, please post the data and make us Model 3 enthusiasts out to be fools.

 

Regarding Tesla Range, let me speak from experience: I've owned 2 Model S's. The 1st was a "classic" w/o Autopilot. I test drove an Autopilot car and that caused me to sell my "classic" and buy an AP car. I happened to find a SMOKIN deal on a fully loaded 85D in Nebraska with 1200 miles, so I could not pass it up. I hopped on the next flight from LA to Omaha.
I drove the car back, supercharging all the way. (I can post a pic of every charge stop where I was alone except in Vegas) It took 10 Charge stops or so, at about 40-50 mins each. it was 1600 miles I believe. I drove 5mph over posted speed, in most cases 80mph without any range issues.
Here's the deal. By the time the car was needing to charge, or I was approaching the next supercharger, I needed coffee/food/restroom/sleep. [I wont say the Supercharger are free, cause let's be honest, the car is 100k. I paid for the power up front! lol!]
So maybe some of you can drive 300 miles without a break, but that aint me. 40-50 mins is a perfect time. In some stops the car was ready for me before I was ready for it.
It is by far the most relaxing long range drive I've ever done. Autopilot is absolutely life changing. It added years to my life and reduced my stress to no end. (that's really not relevant here, but I thought you should know) I suspect by 2018 most Manufactures will have it.
The charge stops for me are a much needed break.

Now on the other side of the coin, if you need to do a 300 mile in record breaking time, don't take a tesla. Yep, I said it, you have to plan your drives.

 

That's true of all other manufacturers. A fully loaded Prius is over 10k more than a barebone 2. At least with Tesla, you get range and performance gain.

 

30% of USA electricity is coming from coal.

California is in its own bubble, especially Orange County and San Fransico proper, but the rest of the country can't afford a $35,000 car.Tesla is still a car for the weathy even at a starting price of $35K.

 

We'll as of 4-1-16 pre-order stand at 235,000+ units so maybe if you act now you get delivery in 4 years or later!

 

They expect to be able to make about 400k/year. The ramp up will take time of course, however I expect them to be able to burn through that in a couple of years.

Also, these are worldwide. U.S. orders will start first.

 

what does 2 x the battery cost mean? are you saying the base pip will be 35k? or the loaded model?

 

Completely missing the point. Point to point on major highways from Supercharger station to Supercharger station is only a part of the problem. The big problem is taking the car away from a Supercharger station along a route that has no charging at all. How far can you go before you have to reverse course and go back to the Supercharger station? Not very far. If you need heat along the way and you drive 75, you might only be able to go 75 miles or so in a Model S and 50 miles or so in a 3, allowing for a tiny range reserve. That's nothing and I exceed that all the time.

And as far as that range reserve, I have been stuck on a closed highway for more than an hour in a snow storm with the heat running the entire time, then told to turn around and go back the way I came. Given that, I usually refuel when my available range drops to 250 miles and always stop when it drops to 100 miles. Doing that makes a Tesla have essentially no range at all. But when the alternative is freezing to death on the side of a closed rural road, it can be important. So when Tesla owners tell me to plan my drive, that's the sort of planning I do - planning for surviving the unexpected. And that means a car with at least 450 miles of real range and the ability to produce heat for many hours if I get stuck.

 

If the speed limit is 75, that means most people will be driving 85 to 90. 75 mph is not as safe as 65 (even in a Tesla), burns more fuel (whether gasoline, diesel, or electric), and contributes more hydrocarbons to the atmosphere (except the Tesla). Although I have several friends who live in Colorado, I would never feel comfortable driving on the roads there, everyone appears to be in a "rush" or smoking something legal or maybe both!.

With the type of driving you do, you would never achieve the performance published by Tesla (or any other car for that matter).......and blame the car!

 

On that route I usually get 56mpg round trip in my 2004 Prius.

99% of the people I see on that stretch are doing less than 80.

 

I doubt you will ever purchase a Tesla, so why worry about quality control? AND, you are ignoring that Tesla enjoys the highest customer satisfaction (quality control or not) and the highest 'would purchase again' rating of any car out there. A vehicle does not achieve that kind of loyalty and satisfaction with significant quality control issues!

If you need a $7,500 rebate to afford a Tesla (or Bolt or Leaf or Prius), then you really can't afford a $35,000 car.

You are kidding, right? From your data: 215 miles per "charge" You don't understand what that means? Thanks for starting my day with a laugh, I needed that!

 

Any bets on when Telsa has to start advertising? Seriously, with pre-orders of 100,000s and a production start of 2017, I'm interested in what others think when that breakpoint will occur. If gas prices shoot up before then, then it may be waaaay out there.

 

The question is, will they start advertising first, or go out of business first. With 8 consecutive years of losses and a loss of $800 million last year, competition building and customers of their drive components starting to make their own, their business model looks very shaky.