Atlantic hurricane season

Hurricane Matthew gained a lot of strength and is now 'news'. This strengthening was not predicted 24 h ago. Anyway, Jamaica and Cuba, deben tener cuidado.

 

Current heading of 'center of rotation' is NNW. When and if it turns to N will be a big deal for Haiti (at least).

A useful fact about hurricanes is that winds on the 'left side' are increased by track speed, and thus decreased on the 'right side'. In effect, Jamaica and Haiti are looking at different storms.

Works the other way in S. Hemisphere. Clockwise rotations there. Coriolis.

 

Bob, I have the same darn problem with double posting.

One might presume that the Guantanamo facility is pretty sturdy. However, if H. Matthew really flexes muscles, infrastructure will get very messed up (not just Cuba). Being a (nominally) helpful nation, US will want to go all humanitarian in the aftermath. Allowing this aspect of politics to intrude is preventable. Now it's done.

In another sense, if US President wanted the facility emptied anyway, Matthew provided a reason to do it.

What happens next to detainees is perhaps a discussion for elsewhere.

 

What happens next for GTMO is perhaps a discussion for elsewhere. Here I just do H. Matthew.

Currently north @ 5 mph, the 'right turn' has been made. Humanitarian pleas (Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba) arriving soon. After that, CONUS effects (all y'all care about) remain hard to anticipate.

 

What happens next for GTMO is perhaps a discussion for elsewhere. Here I just do H. Matthew.

Currently north @ 5 mph, the 'right turn' has been made. Humanitarian pleas (Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba) arriving soon. After that, CONUS effects (all y'all care about) remain hard to anticipate.

 

A fella would be crazy to fly through Matthew. See below avoidance behavior. The one crazy is a NOAA Gulfstream G IV. Possibly a bit bumpy even at FL 450.

 

Heading now 10 degrees (just E of N) and Jamaica has lowered warnings to watches. No such luck for Haiti. That country has few trees and landslides seem likely.

 

Haiti still has many people in temporary housing, major health issues, and (as above) not much reason for uphill dirt to stay there with heavy rain. May be less resilient countries on earth but I'd rather not think about such things.

This time Jamaica gets to avoid the worst impacts. Far eastern Cuba, not so good.

Longer track projections keep changing for Matthew. Gov. Scott of Florida just declared state-wide emergency.

 

Pray for Haiti.

 

Reports are slow to arrive. We'll hear Port Au Prince first; southern peninsula maybe a lot later. I read that the only road bridge into southern peninsula is washed out.

Meanwhile Matthew needs to be of more direct concern to US East Coast. If you are not 'prepped' yet, turn off computer and do something important

Hurricane Floyd in 1999 followed a similar path, and was very damaging. Matthew will be much closer in to Florida coast and possibly with eyewall onshore. Even without that, there will be much much more water around than you want.

 

Cuba evacuated 300,000 people from the eastern end. Things and crops will get damaged there. In terms of infrastructure and response capabilities, Cuba is way ahead of Haiti.

This is a problem. With current risks from coastal Fl though NC, US will (appropriately) focus its efforts 'at home'.

Model predictions still have a lot of spread, from onshore central Fl, to long & close along coast, to (pretty much) safely further out to sea. Another 24 hrs will improve that. During which time coastal folks are supposed to be prepping.

Also there has recently been a lot of coastal rain (in Carolinas at least). Much more to come within 5 days, almost independent of storm track.

What does appear consensus-likely at present is Matthew recurving (out to sea) somewhere along NC. Based on that, further-north people would be in the clear.