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Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by bwilson4web, Oct 3, 2016.

  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Sometimes to read an article and wonder Wth? I haven't found independent sources so here it is: PHEVs an illogical end point, says Volkswagen

    Plug-in hybrid technology may seem a perfect solution for those with range anxiety, but it’s a concept with a limited shelf life, according to aspiring electric vehicle leader Volkswagen.

    The German car-maker, which wants to be the world’s top EV brand by 2025 by selling more than a million units annually, says that as battery technology improves and charging infrastructure grows to support demand, PHEVs will be phased out.

    It may seem self-evident, but it’s confirmation that combining a combustion source with an electric motor/battery drive unit is a technology bridge, rather than an end point – at least according to the world’s number-two car brand.
    . . .

    A heat engine burning liquid fuel still has a significant refueling advantage for a reasonable cost compared to current and next generation alternatives. That may change in the future (with a couple of Nobel prizes too.)

    Short of having overhead wires on the Interstates, I really don't see a practical solution to the EV range challenge. It is getting better but like we said in the Marine Corps,"It s*cks less."

    Bob Wilson
     
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  2. DonDNH

    DonDNH Senior Member

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    Refer to your other thread discussing the incompatibilities between the myriad charging systems. VW may have a tough time with that timeline. Hybrids will thrive until the industry implements a standard interface akin to a gas pump and the fuel inlet.
     
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  3. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    He doesn't give a timeline, and for places like Europe and Japan, he is right. There is less urban sprawl with an effective rail system to cover city to city travel. The i3 REx and early A1 Etron concept both have a small gas tank. Tiny by US norms, but it holds enough fuel to get the car from one city to another in Europe. So has batteries and charging infrastructure improves, the need for liquid refueling speeds becomes less for those regions. A criticism of the Volt is that carrying around the ICE and support systems reduces EV efficiency because of the weight. This is more valid when a PHEV can go 100 to 200 miles on EV.

    Which is also an issue for the US. So PHEVs will last longer here at the least. But as BEVs spread and grow, the population might come to see a short wait for a fast charge as not so bad. Coupled with increased fuel prices, liquid refueling speeds become less of a need.
     
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  4. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Although I have some understanding of VW's budget challenges (self imposed!), I see it as letting "perfect be the enemy of good enough." Everyone is entitled to their opinions but I don't see a practical, nation-wide, fast-charger network covering even the 'fly-over' areas in less than 20-30 years.

    Yes, we can get fast chargers on all of the Interstates and that helps. But there are significant distances away from Interstates that will be left 'high-and-dry.' Tulsa to Stillwater Oklahoma comes to mind but that is far from the only one. But even locally, I chafe at the 7.2-7.4 kW charging rate of our BMW i3-REx:

    Charging ended (8.458 kWh added). - Bobs_BMW_i3 finished charging. Charging added 8.458 kWh in 1h 49m 34s.
    Charging ended (8.281 kWh added). - Bobs_BMW_i3 finished charging. Charging added 8.281 kWh in 1h 54m 38s.
    Charging ended (9.735 kWh added). - Bobs_BMW_i3 finished charging. Charging added 9.735 kWh in 2h 7m 24s. ​

    We added 24 kW to our house but I'm still only getting 7.2 kW charge rates.

    Bob Wilson
     
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  5. Prius Maximus

    Prius Maximus Senior Member

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    I've been wondering about that. As PHEVs/BEVs become more widespread, won't petroleum demand drop, eventually dramatically, resulting in lower prices?
     
  6. Prius Maximus

    Prius Maximus Senior Member

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  7. DonDNH

    DonDNH Senior Member

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    I think as demand drops and companies leave the fuel delivery business, prices will be fairly stable. That is until gasoline becomes a specialty product and then the price will skyrocket.

    Remember Amoco and it's white gasoline (absent any fuel additives). It used to cost the same as any other brand. Then the white gas disappeared and the price went sky high. Today it's used for primarily for camp stoves and lanterns. It costs between $6 - $12 per quart.
     
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  8. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Yes, but a responsible country will be taxing it least on par with road maintenance costs.

    Also, as the price of petroleum drops, alternate sources, like tar sands and oil shale, becomes economically unfeasible. Which puts a limit on supply. Then with less petroleum being pumped up for gasoline, the fractions used as feed stock for plastics and other chemicals will go up in demand. Seeing better profit there, the refineries will shift production to them, and reduce the amount of gasoline made further.

    tl;dr it's complicated

    What I'd like to see is an increase to fuel prices to help support plug in adoption. When they become the norm, the improvement to overall vehicle economy by using the grid should allow further taxes on fossil sourced fuels to support the adoption of renewable ones should be acceptable to the public.

    My end goal for private transportation would be BEV for the majority and non-hydrogen fuel cell PHVs running on renewables for applications where a BEV would have limits.
     
  9. bhtooefr

    bhtooefr Senior Member

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    Also remember that Volkswagen is pushing technologies like 800 V systems, so that they can double the charge rate over current DC fast charging, and that they're being forced by the US federal government to deploy fast charging technology...
     
  10. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    all vdub is saying is that they're not smart enough to come up with a decent hybrid in the 'bridge' timeframe, and we'll just have to wait until bev's can do it all before buying another vdub.
     
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  11. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    The typical reason for higher voltages are to minimize (I**2)*R losses but it also allows a smaller, faster turning motor. So instead of dealing with boost converter losses, start with a high voltage battery pack. This would be optimized for high-speed travel. But at lower speeds, more amps are typically needed. So a buck converter reduces the voltage that increases the current.

    Still I will wait until some of my engineering publications come out with technical details.

    Bob Wilson
     
  12. Prius Maximus

    Prius Maximus Senior Member

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    Like, approve, agree...;)
     
  13. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    Amoco Clear Ultimate yes I used to use that in my minivan around lets say early 1990's in NJ. That probably had very high energy content and no ethanol so it probably would not qualify for today. I would think some places might have juicy E0 fuels like that, but not in reformulated gaso areas like mine.

    I think it was 95 cents/gal until the Gulf War bumped up prices, and I started thinking I needed to raise the MPG of my home fleet, which took me another 10-yr until Prius.
     
    #11 wjtracy, Oct 4, 2016
    Last edited: Oct 4, 2016
  14. telmo744

    telmo744 HSD fanatic

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    VW can't make a proper ICE (TDI emissions, TFSI reliability/MPG)... :rolleyes:
     
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  15. bhtooefr

    bhtooefr Senior Member

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    Another problem for their hybrid products is that they don't have any form of power split hybrid, and all they've got is sandwich hybrids using DSG and conventional automatic transmissions, with AFAIK mediocre drivetrain efficiency.

    And, while they could replace the EA211 1.4T with a naturally aspirated variant of the EA888 1.8 or 2.0, the EA888's reliability problems aren't caused by turbocharging...
     
  16. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Then put EV on either front or rear and the ICE on the other. It isn't that hard. Run them in parallel and they'd have instant 4-wheel drive. IMHO, best if EV in rear for high torque and ICE on front for high-speed cruise.

    Bob Wilson
     
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  17. GasperG

    GasperG Senior Member

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    If they couldn't do Jetta hybrid, then they certainly won't make PHEV with the same recipe, it's just too complicated and expensive.

    Toyota have all the means to do PHEV Yaris/Prius C on the cheap, the only problem is packaging, IMO that will sort out in a couple of years, when batteries improve (shrink) and Toyota finds a better way to package the battery.
     
  18. bhtooefr

    bhtooefr Senior Member

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    They actually already have done a PHEV with the same recipe as the Jetta Hybrid - the Golf/Passat GTE in Europe, and the Audi A3 Sportback e-tron both there and in the US.

    Essentially, the GTE/e-tron powertrain has a much more powerful hybrid motor, and it uses a heavier-duty 6-speed wet dual clutch transmission (same family as what GTIs and TDIs here use). They've also got much better packaging than the Jetta Hybrid, which was part of that car's problem (the Mk6 Jetta never having been designed for hybridization).
     
  19. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    overhead? or why not built into the asphalt - ah la one of my fond childhood memories, when you could find one of these entertainment facilities on every corner . . . .

    [​IMG]

    just pick up power (even inductively) for the long haul - then when you leave the main (track) freeway, you still have 75 to 300 miles of range driving 'off track'
    ;)
    .
     
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  20. GasperG

    GasperG Senior Member

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    Yes I know, I just meant to say if Jetta was not a success story then their PHEV versions on the same recipe won't be a success story either.

    Hybrid needs both engines to be good and working in synergy, energy from the wall won't change that fact.
     
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  21. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    plus, let's face it, their hearts are not in it. it's hard to be good at something you find so distasteful.
     
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  22. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    It isn't a black and white issue.
    While you don't see a practical, nationwide, fast-charger network in less than 20-30 years, I see one today.

    And we are both right, for the cars we drive and the trips we take.
    The question is, when will the percent of the market seeing the nationwide network as I do reach a level that makes PHEVs pointless?

    Frankly, I don't ever see that happening as someone's use case will always fit better with a PHEV.
    So in my mind, VW's comment was hyperbole.

    If VW can build a consensus among manufacturers and get them building a 800V fast charger network, the BEV/PHEV ration will grow much more quickly.
     
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