$10 per gal gas....a cool article

JBJAG · Jun 7, 2006

This is well worth a read -

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?...notes051006.DTL

comments anyone ?

Bring On The $6 Gallon Of Gas
It would revolutionize America. It would make us all better humans. But could you handle it?

No wait, not six. To hell with that. Make it 10. Ten bucks a gallon, no matter what the going rate for a barrel of light sweet crude. That would so completely, violently, brilliantly do it. Revolutionize the country. Firebomb our pungent stasis. Change everything. Don't you agree?

Here's what we could do: Give gas discounts to cab drivers (at least initially) and metro transit systems and low-income folks, those who have to drive their busted-up '78 Honda Civics to their jobs scrubbing restaurant toilets and flipping burgers and vacuuming the residual cocaine from the seat cushions of numb SUV owners. Everyone else, 10 bucks a gallon, across the board. Eleven for premium.

It would take some finessing. Maybe also give a price break to some truckers and trucking companies (so vital to the overall economy), but not so much to global delivery companies (FedEx, DSL et al.), because not doing so would force them to raise shipping rates and force you (and me) to reconsider buying everything online and hence will encourage you to shop locally once again, thus reviving a stagnant local economy.

VoilÃ¡ -- gas crisis, oil crisis, warmongering agenda, pollution issues, road rage, traffic congestion, urban decay, oil profiteering -- all completely almost totally somewhat solved. Or at the very least, dramatically, gloriously shifted toward ... I don't know what. Something better. Something more humane, less greedy, more sustainable. Could it work? How outraged and indignant would you be to have to pay that much for gas? How long would that feeling last?

Take it one logical step further. Set up a national system whereby if you want to buy a vehicle that gets less than 20 mpg in the city, you pay a $1,000 Global Warming Surcharge and that money goes straight to a local organic farm, or school, or environmental think tank. And if it gets under 12 mpg, make it three grand, plus a slap to your face from a small, angry child. Got yourself a shiny new Hummer? You pay five grand extra, you can only buy gas once a month and all the truly beautiful women of the world will shun you like Charlie Sheen (oh wait, that already happens). See? Revolution is easy.

What, too far fetched? Too implausible? Not at all. Sure, 10 bucks a gallon would be extremely painful for a while. Citizens would wail. Commuters would scream and stomp and die. But then we would do what we always do. We would evolve. Adapt. Systems would quickly transform, habits would instantly shift. It would be easier to implement than the goddamn mess that is Medicare reform, far easier than Lots of Children Left Behind, more viable and livable than the toxic existence of Homeland Security and the disgusting Patriot Act.

But of course such an idea is also, right now, absolutely impossible. It will never happen -- not 10 bucks, not six, not even a buck more per gallon -- and not just because no politician anywhere on either side of the aisle has the nerve to come out and suggest that Americans might actually need to drive less and conserve and make a change in their gluttonous habits. This is, of course, absolute death for a politician. Tell Americans what to do? Dare to suggest that they're doing something wrong, or that their behaviors are dangerous and destructive and irresponsible? Are you insane? This is America! We're flawless!

No, the primary reason such reform won't happen is because, simply put, we are the most entitled nation in the world, perhaps in the entire galaxy. Americans are trained from birth to believe we deserve as much as we desire of every exploitable resource on the planet, be it water or natural gas or oil, coal or salmon or steaks, Big Macs or diapers or iPods or bizarre varieties of blue ketchup. It is, in a word, perilous. It is also, in another, slightly more devastating word, our downfall.

Look, I adore cars. I adore driving and I cherish open roads and smooth horsepower and a musical exhaust note and I fully believe most German automotive engineers should be sent gifts of candy and Peet's coffee and porn. I would, like most everyone else, be absolutely loathe to give much of it up.

But you know what? Big freaking deal. I could learn to live without so much. I like to think I would be able to step back and see the bigger picture, realize what is and isn't absolutely essential, what does and does not absolutely define my identity and my life, modify accordingly and laugh/shrug/sigh it off in the process. In other words, I could make it work. And so could you.

Ever been in a citywide blackout? One that lasted for more than a few hours and stretched on into the night? Ever see people suddenly shift gears and become astoundingly helpful and polite and sharing? Happens in a matter of moments. Disasters do it. Katrina did it, on a scale we haven't seen in years. Sept. 11 did it, emotionally speaking, before BushCo whored that tragedy and turned it into the most vile political poker chip in American history. Shocking change brings people together. Brings out the best in humans. Or at least, makes you rethink what's truly important in your life.

Another example: You know what would happen if guns -- all guns, everywhere -- were banned outright tomorrow? Well, right off, nothing much. Criminals would still commit crimes. Lawsuits would skyrocket. The NRA would shoot itself in the face in screaming protest. Crime rates would dance all over the map. It would be a little ugly.

But then something remarkable would happen. Over a short blip of time -- say about 10 or 20 years, as gun manufacturing ceased and the culture of gun violence died down and our favorite death object was less visible in the news and in video games and on TV and in every aspect of modern life, well, guess what? Guns would begin to disappear. From the culture, from the drug dealers, from the streets, from public consciousness. They would turn into a sad relic, like eight-track tapes, like the bubonic plague, like the Miami Sound Machine. Think 20 years is too long? BS. It is but an eyeblink, a twitch, a faint toe spasm in the great long orgasm of time.

This is the unappreciated, under-reported magic of the human animal. We are infinitely adaptable. We can accommodate far more than politicians and pundits and the morally knotted Christian right would ever have you believe.

Ten bucks a gallon. Imagine the mad scramble by carmakers to invent new ultra-gas-sipping, enviro-friendly technologies. Imagine communities coming together for ride-sharing and mass transit. Bike sales would skyrocket. Walking shoes would be the new bling item. We would mourn the loss of cool car culture even as we celebrated the birth of, say, moped culture. Telecommuting would explode. Sure, the superrich would still tool around in their bloated Escalades, oblivious to the world around them, thinkin' the world is their dumb bitch.

So what? The rest of us can simply roll our eyes and laugh, evolve and sharpen and sigh, and wonder what great change we can embark upon next.

finman · Jun 7, 2006

Wow. Bring it on. I'm as ready as the the next person for REAL change. Wow. Do it. Nothing like the present to get jumpstarted to the future...for the betterment of ALL, not just the rich*...

cheers,

Curt.

*the $$-minded, arrogant $%*tards that care less about their consumption.

EmptyG · Jun 7, 2006

So FedEx and UPS would have to layoff people, airline tickets would go sky high forcing mass layoffs, oil companies get $$$ because people can't switch their habits on a dime, everyone changes their job description to "taxi driver" so they can get the discount (why taxi drivers only anyways?). And thousands of people working for oil companies, manufactures, even gas stations are all out of a job tomorrow. These are people trying to make a living, with families. People will find loopholes in this, saying they all drive "busted up Hondas" and "flip burgers".

Extremely high gas prices exist overseas. I don't see a whole greater deal of hybrids there.

I know this will make people mad for me to say this, but I believe a change based on hiking prices is not the solution.

Forcing people to change is not going to work. Enabling them to change on their own, (albiet with some incentive) without forced attrition is the best way. I agree change is needed, and hybrids are a good first step. Alternative fuels are next. But change can't always come about immediately. Incentives and positive change is what's going to do this. Not scare tactics and hiking up pay.

BTW - if I missed it, where does this money go (from the gas hikes)? The government? You really want the government to have more funds AT ALL? Or the oil companies, which this writer hates with a burning passion? Who regulates this price hike? Isn't this a supply/demand market?

Interesting article for sure, and somewhat well thought out on the surface, but slightly pollyannish IMHO. I can see the flames coming for me now, but I thought I would drop my $0.02 in

kimgh · Jun 7, 2006

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(EmptyG @ Jun 7 2006, 03:42 PM) [snapback]267526[/snapback]</div>

So FedEx and UPS would have to layoff people, airline tickets would go sky high forcing mass layoffs, oil companies get $$$ because people can't switch their habits on a dime, everyone changes their job description to "taxi driver" so they can get the discount (why taxi drivers only anyways?). And thousands of people working for oil companies, manufactures, even gas stations are all out of a job tomorrow. These are people trying to make a living, with families. People will find loopholes in this, saying they all drive "busted up Hondas" and "flip burgers".

Extremely high gas prices exist overseas. I don't see a whole greater deal of hybrids there.

I know this will make people mad for me to say this, but I believe a change based on hiking prices is not the solution.

Forcing people to change is not going to work. Enabling them to change on their own, (albiet with some incentive) without forced attrition is the best way. I agree change is needed, and hybrids are a good first step. Alternative fuels are next. But change can't always come about immediately. Incentives and positive change is what's going to do this. Not scare tactics and hiking up pay.

BTW - if I missed it, where does this money go (from the gas hikes)? The government? You really want the government to have more funds AT ALL? Or the oil companies, which this writer hates with a burning passion? Who regulates this price hike? Isn't this a supply/demand market?

Interesting article for sure, and somewhat well thought out on the surface, but slightly pollyannish IMHO. I can see the flames coming for me now, but I thought I would drop my $0.02 in
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No flames from me: I absolutely agree: a sudden change to $10/gal would be disastrous for the world economy. A whole lot of bad things would happen before any of the supposed good things would take hold.

hyo silver · Jun 7, 2006

How about a second price tag, in addition to the "real" one, that shows the environmental costs? People could then make informed decisions, and companies would be motivated to reduce the environmental costs of their products.

clarkeb · Jun 7, 2006

I love how people in the US complain consistently about gas prices and yet gas costs the same price in Europe...per litre.

Honestly, be glad we get it for such a bargain.

EmptyG · Jun 7, 2006

I just wanted to post a follow up to this.

I must say I am happy to see spirited debate here, but with respect and civility. Lots of time on message boards (at least ones I have been on) any differences in opinon are not met with much respect.

Hats off to the Prius Chat site. You guys are great.

Debate on!

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(hyo silver @ Jun 7 2006, 04:14 PM) [snapback]267543[/snapback]</div>

How about a second price tag, in addition to the "real" one, that shows the environmental costs? People could then make informed decisions, and companies would be motivated to reduce the environmental costs of their products.
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Can you elaborate? I don't really get a sense of your idea here. It sounds, on the surface, to be the same thing the SFGate guy was saying, to make companies and consumers pay more for their gas, to make them use less gas and create more fuel-efficient cars.

Am I reading that wrong?

daniel · Jun 7, 2006

Hey, it's coming. People will look back on discussions like this from the not-very-distant future and wish that gas would go back down to $10 per gallon. And I'm not talking about a "liberal" take-over of government. I'm talking about supply, demand, and the cost of production. Not so terribly long ago it took 10 or 15 calories of energy to extract 1,000 calories of petroleum. Now I think it's something like 200 calories to extract 1,000 calories. And going up. The petroleum age is coming to an end. We won't actually run out, but we'll reach the stage at which it takes more energy to extract a barrel of oil than is contained in that oil. Oil will be extracted for very high-value chemical processes, but burning it for energy will be a net loss.

malorn · Jun 7, 2006

$10/ gallon for gasoline? Walk me through how this scenario would play out? Do you forsee a major supply disruption with no change in demand as the price goes up? Or how about a triple in demand over maybe the next year? Did you guys ever find your way to an economics class?

burritos · Jun 7, 2006

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(daniel @ Jun 7 2006, 07:08 PM) [snapback]267564[/snapback]</div>

Hey, it's coming. People will look back on discussions like this from the not-very-distant future and wish that gas would go back down to $10 per gallon. And I'm not talking about a "liberal" take-over of government. I'm talking about supply, demand, and the cost of production. Not so terribly long ago it took 10 or 15 calories of energy to extract 1,000 calories of petroleum. Now I think it's something like 200 calories to extract 1,000 calories. And going up. The petroleum age is coming to an end. We won't actually run out, but we'll reach the stage at which it takes more energy to extract a barrel of oil than is contained in that oil. Oil will be extracted for very high-value chemical processes, but burning it for energy will be a net loss.
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How many calories does the Iraq war count as?

EmptyG · Jun 7, 2006

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(burritos @ Jun 7 2006, 05:51 PM) [snapback]267588[/snapback]</div>

How many calories does the Iraq war count as?
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I think that's a little off topic, IMO. We are talking non-politics here, just about gas prices and how it could benefit or not benefit the economy. Though it's obvious that the person who wrote the SFGate article is not a fan of Bush

As long as we are off topic though, I must say your username makes me hungry

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(daniel @ Jun 7 2006, 05:08 PM) [snapback]267564[/snapback]</div>

Hey, it's coming. People will look back on discussions like this from the not-very-distant future and wish that gas would go back down to $10 per gallon. And I'm not talking about a "liberal" take-over of government. I'm talking about supply, demand, and the cost of production. Not so terribly long ago it took 10 or 15 calories of energy to extract 1,000 calories of petroleum. Now I think it's something like 200 calories to extract 1,000 calories. And going up. The petroleum age is coming to an end. We won't actually run out, but we'll reach the stage at which it takes more energy to extract a barrel of oil than is contained in that oil. Oil will be extracted for very high-value chemical processes, but burning it for energy will be a net loss.
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Oh no argument from me that oil is getting harder to extract. I am with you (and most people here I think) that we definitely need to step up our efforts to get independant of foreign oil to begin with, then oil in general. It's going to run out, and we need to be proactive about that.

But raising the price of gas doesn't solve this. Even if it did, it would create a slew of new issues (like mentioned above).

EricGo · Jun 7, 2006

It will wreck the economy.
No, really, it *will* wreck the economy
OK.. maybe it didn't before, but it will NOW !!
We just go LUCKY!, now, shit is going to happen
The shrub saved us up till now, but NOT A SINGLE CENT MORE !!
The economy is collapsing !!! you just cannot see it.
Go ahead and laugh. You just got lucky that alternative fuels came along to save your behind.

Tadashi · Jun 7, 2006

I just talked to a coworker who has a Avalanche. It has a 30 gal tank that he fills once a week at close to $80. Although he would like to spend my $24 a month on gas he would not be able to just switch in a day. He cannot afford to trade in a car that he just paid off.

Should he be punished for poor foresight by $10 per gal? This would not help the situation. We need to offer more incentives to R&D as well as for consumers to purchase. I think the tax credit should be based an MPG and emmissions. Also, any new vehicle should get an environmental tax based on its MPG and emmissions rating. At most $5k - $8k per vehicle. This should go to making up the cost of the incentives. Maybe offer incentives for gas guzzler trade-ins.

Here is something to think about... the Army is working on hybid combat vehicles. I think I saw it estimated that it costs as much as $110 per gal to get the fuel to the soldiers. Not to mention the problems of storage, security, enviornmental issues, manpower, etc. I wonder how long until the public will pick up on this and fully accept hybrids. How was the transition from the horse to the car?

malorn · Jun 7, 2006

Again, citing many sources, the world economy would completely collapse at between $4.00 and 4.50/gallon. In a world-wide depression, exactly what would the demand for gasoline be? It is no wonder that the US is in such a bad long-term economic situation when so many "educated" folks no so little about economics.

naterprius · Jun 7, 2006

I thought $3.00 was the price that the world economy would collapse. When it hit $3.00, everyone gasped, but they still gassed. Malorn, how many of the new 6000 pound jobs do you still sell? My guess is LOTS of them. And you wonder how gas could get to $10 a gallon.

As for economics, the instant the demand outpaces the supply, the price skyrockets. Then, demand falls. But wait, would demand fall? People would have to park their Escalades and Yukon XL's for that to happen. But, I'm sure they are still selling, and with a 17 year life span, from the moment gasoline spikes, we will have 17 years of high consumption, and spiked prices.

$10? I'm prepared for $20. It would only cost me $500 a month. I can afford it. Can most people? I suspect not.

The world economy will NOT collapse at $4, $4.50, or even $10 a gallon. Most people won't even notice, they'll just keep pumping away, $200 at a time into the SUV.

Nate

priusenvy · Jun 8, 2006

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(malorn @ Jun 7 2006, 05:29 PM) [snapback]267575[/snapback]</div>

$10/ gallon for gasoline? Walk me through how this scenario would play out? Do you forsee a major supply disruption with no change in demand as the price goes up? Or how about a triple in demand over maybe the next year? Did you guys ever find your way to an economics class?
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Apparently you didn't, otherwise you'd know the difference between a change in demand, and movement along a demand curve. Two things that nobody who knows the slightest bit about economics would ever confuse.

hyo silver · Jun 8, 2006

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(EmptyG @ Jun 7 2006, 06:59 PM) [snapback]267558[/snapback]</div>

Can you elaborate? I don't really get a sense of your idea here. It sounds, on the surface, to be the same thing the SFGate guy was saying, to make companies and consumers pay more for their gas, to make them use less gas and create more fuel-efficient cars.

Am I reading that wrong?
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I was thinking of some sort of an information tag that explains the environmental impact caused by buying and using any given product. Not strictly a 'price' tag that shows how much we pay at the checkout, but a 'cost' tag that shows things like xx kg CO2 generated, xx kg fertiliser used, xx kg of particulate matter generated, that sort of thing. Similar to a energy consumption sticker on an appliance, but measuring the product's contribution to the top ten pollutants, for instance. A way to show us that the environmental costs of any given purchasing decision should be considered right along with the financial costs. We're paying both, really, but tend to think only of the financial part.

malorn · Jun 8, 2006

267723[/snapback]</div>

Apparently you didn't, otherwise you'd know the difference between a change in demand, and movement along a demand curve. Two things that nobody who knows the slightest bit about economics would ever confuse.
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You are not talking about "movement" along a demand curve with $10/ gallon gas? Do you disagree that about the demand at $4.50/gallon? The economy is entering a major slow-down]
I thought $3.00 was the price that the world economy would collapse. When it hit $3.00, everyone gasped, but they still gassed. Malorn, how many of the new 6000 pound jobs do you still sell? My guess is LOTS of them. And you wonder how gas could get to $10 a gallon.

As for economics, the instant the demand outpaces the supply, the price skyrockets. Then, demand falls. But wait, would demand fall? People would have to park their Escalades and Yukon XL's for that to happen. But, I'm sure they are still selling, and with a 17 year life span, from the moment gasoline spikes, we will have 17 years of high consumption, and spiked prices.

$10? I'm prepared for $20. It would only cost me $500 a month. I can afford it. Can most people? I suspect not.

The world economy will NOT collapse at $4, $4.50, or even $10 a gallon. Most people won't even notice, they'll just keep pumping away, $200 at a time into the SUV.

Nate
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You think the world economy would still function even reasonably the same with $10/gallon gas? The economy is slowing right as we speak, and no we are nobody is selling as many big suv's, trucks including your beloved Toyota.

daronspicher · Jun 8, 2006

The thing that always leaves me scratching my head about this kind of conversation is this:

Why don't the liberal tree huggers live today as if this kind of thing were happening in the world. Why do they need all of society to be tranformed into what is being discussed in this email before they can stop driving their cars.

In fact, there are a lot of you around here. Why are you driving your Prius's? Sell them and get 1 more car off the road so that our congestion is less and so gas guzzling cars don't have to do so much bunch-n-go in traffic. Every one of you preach this message, but none of you is living it to any extreme.

Why are you all waiting for the entire society to be forced to it before you start it yourself?

malorn · Jun 8, 2006

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(daronspicher @ Jun 8 2006, 07:45 AM) [snapback]267794[/snapback]</div>

The thing that always leaves me scratching my head about this kind of conversation is this:

Why don't the liberal tree huggers live today as if this kind of thing were happening in the world. Why do they need all of society to be tranformed into what is being discussed in this email before they can stop driving their cars.

In fact, there are a lot of you around here. Why are you driving your Prius's? Sell them and get 1 more car off the road so that our congestion is less and so gas guzzling cars don't have to do so much bunch-n-go in traffic. Every one of you preach this message, but none of you is living it to any extreme.

Why are you all waiting for the entire society to be forced to it before you start it yourself?
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I know many of the folks you are talking about very well. They seem to have an inherent guilt about living on the planet and using ANY "unsustainable" resources(some of them any resources period). I don't think they will ever be happy until man no longer exists on earth, then and only then will man not be destroying the earth.

When the environmental movement loses that preachy tone and is more realistic in its message and its politics will it gain the momentum it deserves.

$10 per gal gas....a cool article

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$10 per gal gas....a cool article

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